Power Rankings: Top 10 drivers with sleeper playoff potential

10. Ryan Preece, No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

Playoff history: N/A


Outlook: Arguably the biggest wild card entering the season, it's nearly impossible to gauge the kind of season Preece is about to have. On one hand, the No. 41 car was not in the ballpark of a playoff appearance last year, and Preece himself never finished better than 26th in the Cup Series standings in his three previous full-time seasons. On the other, nobody out there questions his talent — in the other two series, he's shown to be capable of winning when his car/truck is as well — and this year is by far his best opportunity in any series to date. Thus, the ceiling here goes as high as his car's willing to take him. If SHR has rebounded into a championship-capable organization this year, perhaps there is no ceiling.

9. Michael McDowell, No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford

Playoff history: 2021, eliminated in Round of 16


Outlook: The longtime veteran got his first taste of playoff action in 2021 after becoming the first driver to provisionally lock himself into the postseason after his Daytona 500 win. A year later, though he missed the playoffs, McDowell showed what he was capable of with the Next Gen car and turned in his best season to date (16.7 average finish, 12 top 10s). As we move into Year 2 with this car and McDowell at the top of his game, the superspeedway and road-course ace could once again surprise some with a postseason run.

8. Noah Gragson, No. 42 Legacy Motor Club Chevrolet

Playoff history: N/A (rookie)


Outlook: After looking like arguably the most Cup-ready young driver in the Xfinity Series last year, Gragson finds himself this season in perhaps the most rookie-friendly situation a driver could ask for. Not only will the 24-year-old have a talented teammate in Erik Jones to work with, but he'll have essentially unfettered access to two of the sport's seven-time champions (one of which will also be able to offer advice from direct experience with the car, as a teammate). Don't expect a season that approaches double-digit wins like he had last year in the Xfinity Series, but it feels more likely than not that he at least sniffs a win or two.

7. Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford

Playoff history: 2016 (eliminated in Round of 16)


Outlook: The 2015 Xfinity Series champion has not had the simplest path to playoff relevance, making it in his rookie year in '16 with a fog-aided Pocono victory and not returning since. His progression as a driver in the six seasons separating then and now has been evident, however, capped by a thrilling Bristol Night Race victory last year — beating every 2022 playoff driver in the process — and this year feels like he truly deserves to be in the preseason conversation as a playoff contender. There's a reason RFK Racing chose to rebuild around him long-term.

6. Austin Dillon, No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

Playoff history: 2016, 2020 (eliminated in Round of 12); 2017, 2018, 2022 (eliminated in Round of 16)


Outlook: Dillon is no stranger to the playoffs, having made it five of the last seven years. That said, the first two rounds are major hurdles for him, most often not making it out of the Round of 16 and, if he does, seeing prompt exits soon after. That could change this season. Not only was last year arguably Dillon's best season to date, RCR as a whole enters the season with a profoundly renewed energy and focus with the addition of two-time champion Kyle Busch. It's easy to imagine the pair of competitive 30-somethings sharing insights and pushing each other to reach their respective potentials — and maybe even battling each other for wins.

5. Brad Keselowski, No. 6 RFK Racing Ford

Playoff history: 2012 champion; 2017, 2020 (eliminated in Championship 4); 2011 (5th place; before elimination format); 2014, 2015, 2021 (eliminated in Round of 8); 2016, 2018, 2019 (eliminated in Round of 12)


Outlook: Obviously, it's a bit jarring to see that stacked playoff history section and refer to the 2012 champ as a "sleeper with playoff potential," but that's kind of where we're at with Keselowski and the RFK cars at the moment. Keselowski last year waded through inarguably his worst season since his rookie campaign in 2010 as he made the transition to driver/owner with an entirely new organization ... and was forced to play from behind all year after a major, early-season penalty. Nobody can knock Keselowski's grit, however, and the Michigan native showed not a single sign of throwing in the towel all year, looking like a bona fide contender once again in certain races toward the end. With a year of Next Gen racing under his belt and an offseason to apply learnings from the first year of his new foray, expect a revitalized Keselowski to come out swinging to start the year. If RFK's cars are right, he's got championship potential once more.

4. Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Playoff history: N/A (rookie)


Outlook: Look, there's no denying that Gibbs is going to face his share of rookie struggles as he aims to fill the shoes of a two-time champion that happens to be NASCAR's all-time winningest driver. But that's not to say there won't be immense expectations for him this year, despite it being his rookie season — and he has the talent to fulfill them. All the 2022 NXS champion does is win, racking up trophies in 22% of his 51 series starts there after a ridiculous 18 wins in 47 ARCA Menards Series starts from 2019-21. Nobody is expecting him to match that level of success this early on in his Cup career, but then again, nobody was expecting him to win his first national series start either (in 2021 on Daytona's road course) and yet he did just that. Gibbs continues to surprise with his immense talent, and we know he'll have a championship-capable car under him. It's quite the combo.

3. Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota

Playoff history: N/A


Outlook: There's no denying that during last year's playoffs — whether or not he was technically "in" the playoffs — Wallace was one of the sport's best drivers during that 10-race run. He helped the No. 45 team better its owner's championship standing, and he put a notice out to the rest of the garage with his performance that they should get ready to see an even more formidable Wallace this year. Could it be the No. 23 in '23?

2. Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Chevrolet

Playoff history: 2018, 2019 (eliminated in Round of 16)


Outlook: Jones has seemingly been around forever at this point, and it's easy to forget — given that he's entering his seventh full-time season in Cup — that he's still just 26 years old. The first driver ever to win Rookie of the Year in all three national series, Jones' talent once had him viewed as the top prospect in the sport. It's possible we haven't seen him scratch the surface of his true potential yet and, in the same vein as Gragson, the two-time Southern 500 winner has a tremendous opportunity to turn a corner from here, given the voices surrounding him at the Legacy shop. He looked formidable at times in 2022, and it would be extremely surprising to see him take a step back in '23. In fact, expect him to take a huge leap forward and into the playoffs.

1. AJ Allmendinger, No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet

Playoff history: 2014 (eliminated in Round of 16)


Outlook: Allmendinger has shown over recent years to be more than just a road course ringer or superspeedway maven (though those remain his specialties), and there are a whopping 10 such races before we hit this year's playoffs. Absolutely nothing in this sport is guaranteed, but with back-to-back races at Atlanta and COTA to close out March, I almost want to say it's a slam dunk that 'Dinger could be in the playoffs before we hit April. I'll give him a little more leeway, but overall it's hard to see how the 41-year-old won't force his way into an already stacked playoff field. The playoff format favors him as well, too, with the most difficult round of races (Round of 12) shaping up nicely for him with Talladega and the Charlotte Roval. Feels like it honestly could be Round of 8 or bust for Allmendinger's long-awaited full-time Cup return, and — just saying — should he make it there, it feels worth noting that he has more top 10s at Martinsville (seven, tied with Watkins Glen) than any other track.

Honorable Mention: Jimmie Johnson, No. 84 Legacy Motor Club Chevrolet

Playoff history: Pretty good

Outlook: The seven-time Cup Series champion has strongly indicated that his intention is just to run a part-time schedule in 2023, but he's also attempting this year's Daytona 500. Should he make the field, the two-time "Great American Race" winner certainly has as good a shot as any to take home the Harley J. Earl trophy — and the provisional playoff spot that comes along with it for full-time, championship-eligible drivers. It's tough to say if Johnson would then elect to attempt a full-time campaign from there — with the very real possibility of a record-breaking eighth title on the table — but in the meantime, it's fun to think about.