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Power Rankings: 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season lookahead
By Pat DeCola | Tuesday, November 10, 2020
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NASCAR.com's Pat DeCola ranks the top 25 NASCAR Cup Series drivers slated to compete for the 2021 premier series championship.
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25. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Comment: As he closes in on a decade of full-time Cup racing, Stenhouse put together his worst points finish and average finish since 2015. Not many deny his talent, but now three winless seasons removed from a two-victory 2017 campaign, his career could use a jumpstart.
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24. Chris Buescher
Comment: Though he took a slight step back in points finish and average finish from a year ago, Buescher notched his first two top fives since 2018 and set a career-high in laps led (33) and top 10s (8).
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23. Ryan Newman
Comment: Given he missed three races before the pandemic break while recovering from his severe Daytona accident, Newman produced his worst statistical season to date. His counting stats were down, of course, but his average finish (20.0) was his worst since a 20.3 showing in 2008. It obviously was a most unprecedented year for Newman specifically, and we expect him to return to form next year.
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22. Erik Jones
Comment: Jones produced his first winless campaign since his rookie season in 2017 and led a career-low 65 laps. Moving to the No. 43 Richard Petty Motorsports ride in 2021, Jones will have to work a little harder on the track, but he's got talent and age (24) on his side.
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21. Aric Almirola
Comment: Career-highs in top fives, top 10s and laps are great, sure, but it's hard not to have some questions when a driver in his ninth year of full-time racing goes winless -- albeit with a postseason appearance -- while his veteran teammate notches nine victories and his rookie stablemate wins his way into the playoffs.
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20. Ross Chastain
Comment: One of the most interesting drivers for next season, Chastain should inject some intensity into Sundays in his new ride at Chip Ganassi Racing, but it's far from his first taste of Cup action. With 79 career starts under his belt already, it'll be interesting to see if he hits the ground running in the best opportunity he's gotten yet.
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19. Cole Custer
Comment: Hard to top an inaugural campaign that saw Sunoco Rookie of the Year honors and a playoff-clinching victory at Kentucky, but his seven top 10s and five laps led leave a lot to be desired. Still extremely young (he won't be 23 until January), the future is bright for Custer.
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18. Matt DiBenedetto
Comment: By almost every measure, 2020 was DiBenedetto's best season to date. Once again racing for a long-term job next season, don't be surprised to see him pop off a win and be in the playoff hunt.
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17. Tyler Reddick
Comment: Though Sunoco Rookie honors went to Custer, Reddick was arguably the best rookie in 2020, and he made his impact felt in several races. With the expectation that RCR continues its upward trend, he's likely to be in the playoff conversation.
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16. Christopher Bell
Comment: Compared to his Xfinity Series dominance, it might appear Bell underperformed in 2020, but his numbers were just shy of what the veteran DiBenedetto did in the same car a year ago -- and with only four race weekends where he was able to get his sea legs with practice and qualifying. Translation: He may be a force in 2021 as he makes the move over to Joe Gibbs Racing.
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15. Chase Briscoe
Comment: Perhaps the biggest surprise of the rankings so far, Briscoe earned his lofty expectations with a class-of-his-own, nine-win 2020 Xfinity campaign. Taking over one of the sport's upper-tier rides and with the influx of more road courses, expect the soon-to-be 26-year-old to look like a seasoned vet from the jump next year.
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14. Austin Dillon
Comment: With some of the fastest cars under him since he hit the Cup Series, Dillon won his way into the playoffs, amassed a career-high 135 laps led and posted his best average finish (16.2) since 2016 (15.9). He seems like he's approaching perennial playoff contender territory.
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13. Bubba Wallace
Comment: Arguably the biggest story line for next season, Wallace and 23XI Racing appear to have all the resources in place to be immediately competitive. He's made incremental gains the past few seasons, but look for Bubba to make a big leap in 2021 and compete for wins.
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12. William Byron
Comment: Kind of Hendrick's forgotten man with Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott's deep playoff runs and Jimmie Johnson's final season deservedly stealing the spotlight, Byron took a step forward in some respects (first-career win, career-high in top 10s) but dropped in others (one fewer top five, 93 fewer laps led and worse average finish than 2019). Still just 22-years-old, the shine on his future hasn't worn off a bit.
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11. Kyle Larson
Comment: While he hasn't been in a Cup car since March, Larson has kept the racing rust off with a prolific sprint-car schedule. In perhaps an even better car than his first six full-time seasons, expect Larson to pick right back up where he left off from a racing standpoint -- he was a top-seven driver before this year's pandemic break and his subsequent suspension.
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10. Alex Bowman
Comment: Bowman continues to mature and get better year in, year out, winning a race for the second straight season en route to a career-best sixth-place finish in the standings. With no reason to expect him to regress or stagnate I feel comfortable calling it now: he's a dark horse for the 2021 Championship 4.
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9. Kurt Busch
Comment: Now in his 40s, Busch hasn't lost a step at all. Another consistently strong campaign in the books, expect another year at CGR under his belt to only further solidify him as a contender in 2021.
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8. Ryan Blaney
Comment: At several points in the 2020 season, Blaney was at the very least a top-five driver/car combo, and often looked like he had the fastest car under him. If he can hang onto his mid-race place in the field more often, he could be trying to pry the Cup title from his friend Chase Elliott in 2021.
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7. Kyle Busch
Comment: Well, we may never know the full story of what exactly happened in Busch's nightmare season, but we know one thing: it's extremely unlikely to happen again. Expect JGR to look closely at what will fix this team over the offseason and for Busch to compete for title No. 3 next year.
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6. Martin Truex Jr.
Comment: This probably wasn't the year Truex and new crew chief James Small had in mind, but 23 top 10s and nearly a Championship 4 berth is nothing to get down about in the most topsy-turvy season in history. If the pairing returns in 2021, look for them to find a little more stability and finish the year with several race wins.
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5. Brad Keselowski
Comment: Keselowski notched his best points finish since his championship season, matched a career-best in average finish (10.1) and added at least three wins (he had four) to his resume for the fifth straight season. That's a nice Hall of Fame resume you're building there, Brad, and we expect you'll only add to it next year.
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4. Denny Hamlin
Comment: In what was a roar of a regular season that ended with a bit of a whimper come the Championship 4, 2020 was by some metrics the best year of Hamlin's career. Driven by yet another championship letdown, don't be surprised if Hamlin piles up wins in quick fashion next year.
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3. Joey Logano
Comment: He has yet to top three wins since a career year in 2015, but make no mistake: Logano is the elite of the elite in NASCAR. Coming into 2021 season with a better understanding of how race weekends will go, expect he and crew chief Paul Wolfe to show their brains and racing chops all season long, likely resulting in another Championship 4 run.
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2. Kevin Harvick
Comment: There's not much to say about Harvick at this point. We know who he is. We know he's going to be competitive every weekend. We know he's going to pile up a boatload of wins. And we know he's going to make damned sure he doesn't miss the Championship 4 a second year in a row.
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1. Chase Elliott
Comment: The son sure is shining. Elliott put a bow on the best season of his career, pulling off two straight wins to close out his first championship. It would be silly to think he takes a step back in 2021, and double-digit wins (hello, additional road courses) are not out of the question.
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