Power Rankings: Does it all come down to Denny Hamlin?

4. Martin Truex Jr. (--)

Season-high: 2nd
Season-low: 10th
Comment: Sunday was anything but pretty for Truex Jr., but he squeaked by into the Championship 4 despite three finishes outside the top 10 in the last five races, two of which were 25th or worse. That speaks to the consistency and quality of the No. 19 team's season overall, and they're certainly a more than deserving group to be racing for the title this weekend. While Truex and Co. are probably the championship-eligible team with the least momentum, in no way are they a long shot to take the whole thing — the 2017 champ is still a four-time 2021 winner, and the first of those victories came earlier this season at Phoenix.

3. Chase Elliott (-1)

Season-high: 1st
Season-low: 10th
Comment: While he was unable to match last season's five-win total, Elliott's title defense was about on par with his stats from a year ago, with an even better average finish (11.7 to 11.5). And that's with a stretch run that has seen him finish outside the top 10 in four of the last seven races with no wins since Road America. Still, he did what he needed to in order to advance, and was actually the first driver to clinch his spot on points. He's the defending race winner at Phoenix (obviously), and five of his past eight races there have netted him a top-seven finish, four of which were top fives. You can't go wrong with any of these four remaining drivers, and Elliott's a strong pick to hoist the trophy in the desert for the second straight year.

2. Kyle Larson (-1)

Season-high: 1st
Season-low: 14th
Comment: Okay, I know this is a bit shocking, but hear me out. Everyone and their mother expects the No. 5 team, with the domination it has shown to the tune of nine 2021 wins, to just waltz to the title on Sunday. That's not how any of this works, however. We always make such a big deal of the first driver to clinch to open the Round of 8 having such an advantage with more time to prepare, yet that driver has only gone on to win the title twice (Jimmie Johnson, 2016; Joey Logano, 2018). Larson, who until this year had some questioning his ability to come through in the clutch, has also never been in a Championship 4, while the No. 1 ranked driver is going for the third year in a row and fourth overall. Nobody will be surprised if Larson wins the title on Sunday, but there are enough factors working for his 2021 counterpart that it shouldn't be a shock to see the Hendrick driver fall short, either.

1. Denny Hamlin (+2)

Season-high: 1st
Season-low: 6th
Comment: It's time. We're tired of hearing it. Denny, himself, is surely tired of hearing it. After Sunday, I feel pretty good about the notion that Hamlin will no longer be "the best driver without a title," because he'll be a champion. In so many ways, he's had a better season than his seven-win campaign a year ago, and in some he was better than Larson (8.6 average finish to Larson's 9.3). Coming off one of his most emotional races ever, expect a charged up — and uber-focused — Hamlin to find his way to the front at Phoenix and fight tooth and nail with any driver that tries to get past him. All eyes should be on the 11 on Sunday.