Power Rankings: Defending Championship 4 drivers in Bristol bubble trouble?

NASCAR.com's Pat DeCola ranks the Cup Series Playoffs drivers after the race at Kansas Speedway and before Saturday's Round of 16 elimination race at Bristol Motor Speedway (6:30 p.m. ET, USA).

16. Michael McDowell (--)

Season-high: 14
Season-low: Out

Comment: McDowell has now scored 15 or fewer points in five of the last seven races as the momentum on an at-times-impressive 2023 campaign just appears to be running out of steam. There still are plenty of positives to take away from a season in which he landed his second career win but, though he could still theoretically win his way into the Round of 12 this weekend, his one top-10 finish in 23 Bristol starts doesn't imply it's likely to happen.

15. Bubba Wallace (-4)

Season-high: 11
Season-low: Out

Comment: Wallace's noticeable improvement continued once again year-over-year, and he made a lot of strides this season, which makes Sunday's Kansas result all the more disappointing for a team that had real legs to make the Round of 12 and perhaps beyond. Wallace will need the best Bristol run of his career to advance on Sunday, and he has just one top 10 there (exactly 10th) in eight tries for an overall average finish of 20.6. The hill is steep.

14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-1)

Season-high: 12
Season-low: Out

Comment: The Daytona 500 champion is likely down to his final race as a playoff contender this year, but we've known all season that the postseason actually sets up reasonably well for his skillset, given the Round of 12 is a distinct possibility for him despite the current hole (-22 points) he's in. The reason? Though he's never won there, Bristol is arguably his best non-superspeedway track, the JTG Daugherty driver twice landing a runner-up finish across a nine-race stretch that included six top 10s.

13. Martin Truex Jr. (-7)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 14

Comment: Yikes. You got a good sense on Sunday just how razor-thin the margin is in these NASCAR Playoffs, seeing a driver crowned Regular Season Champion just two weekends ago now sitting on the wrong side of the bubble and facing elimination. Making matters worse, Bristol is among the 2017 champion's worst tracks, with no wins and an astounding four top 10s in 32 starts. 

12. Kevin Harvick (+2)

Season-high: 3
Season-low: 14

Comment: The thing about experienced NASCAR drivers is that there are probably so many crafty-veteran-type moves that Harvick did throughout the season to scrape together enough points and still be on the right side of the bubble at this point, despite having no wins. Bristol has been kind to him over the years -- and especially lately -- so it feels much better than not that he'll still be in title contention come next week, too.

11. Christopher Bell (+4)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 15

Comment: Bell won the pole in each of the playoffs' first two races but failed to produce a top-five finish, leaving him on the good side of the bubble but certainly not with any amount of comfort. It would be of more concern had he not led a bunch of laps on the way to a P4 at Bristol last fall, but he's nowhere close to a lock to move on.

10. Chris Buescher (-7)

Season-high: 2
Season-low: Out

Comment: After tearing it up the second half of the summer, Buescher's worst finish since April 2 at Richmond sunk his positioning to just above the bubble with 13 points to spare. Thankfully for him, he enters Bristol as the defending race winner, and Kansas was likely just a blip on the radar.

9. Joey Logano (+3)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 14

Comment: Boy, last year's champion being P11 and just plus-12 to the bubble staring down elimination just two races into the playoffs probably isn't how Logano would've preferred to draw it up. Overall, though, the No. 22 has strung together a decent-enough stretch the past four races (8.0 average finish), and as long as he can stay afloat at Bristol (where he's won twice), the two-time champ could still be gaining steam.

8. Ross Chastain (--)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 9

Comment: Of the three 2022 Championship 4 contenders that made this year's playoffs, Chastain (+18) is in the best position at the moment, but all three could see themselves not advancing past this round if things don't break their way at Bristol. Unfortunately for him, he's got the worst Bristol history of the three, never leading a lap and having just one finish better than 14th, though that was in this race last year (sixth).

7. Ryan Blaney (+3)

Season-high: 3
Season-low: 15

Comment: Blaney's season, statistically speaking, is on pace to be perhaps his worst to date for Team Penske, yet here he is sitting at plus-25 entering the elimination race. He'll certainly take it, and he's got the opportunity to build momentum this weekend at Bristol, where a win for him feels like an eventuality (495 laps led from 2018-on).

6. Kyle Busch (+3)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 11

Comment: A year after "The Decision," and it still looks like a good one, with Busch looking for his fourth victory of the season, well-positioned in the playoffs and heading to one of his favorite tracks where he'll be a favorite to win. With eight already on the board, it's not out of the question Busch puts a 10-spot up at Bristol before he hangs up the fire suit, and this weekend marks as good a time as any as he's looked strong lately in general.

5. William Byron (-3)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 14

Comment: Kansas resulted in Byron's worst points day since Michigan, but he's still in pretty solid position entering Bristol at plus-41. He was the third-place finisher in each of the last two Bristol Night Races, so perhaps this is the year he takes it over the hump and lands in Victory Lane.

4. Brad Keselowski (+3)

Season-high: 4
Season-low: Out

Comment: Keselowski's re-ascension continues to be mesmerizing to watch, and he's now turned in seven top 10s in the last 10 races alone after putting up just six total all of last season. The three-time Bristol winner is also the defending team owner of this race, and it would be an absolute shock for him to not advance at this point.

3. Denny Hamlin (+1)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 12

Comment: Just like I said here last week — at least the speed is there (and at least this week came along with the finish to match, albeit one spot lower than he'd prefer). Hamlin continues to look every bit like a championship contender and will certainly win at least one race the rest of the way. Bristol's a distinct possibility, and he landed in Victory Lane in this race twice, most recently in 2019.

2. Tyler Reddick (+3)

Season-high: 2
Season-low: 15

Comment: Reddick is the real deal, and it's not hard to imagine him riding this thing all the way to the Championship 4 if he continues to perform to the level of his capabilities while minimizing mistakes. This weekend gives him an opportunity to recalibrate a bit for the Round of 12 and build his Bristol package as he averages a 19.3 finish there.

1. Kyle Larson (--)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 11

Comment: Even though it didn't land the W, there's still no team that looks stronger than No. 5 right now. Larson finally broke through for his first Bristol win in this race in 2021, and it's quite likely he'll be the man to beat this weekend as well as he's generally exceptional there.