Power Rankings: Ty Gibbs leading series in average finish — first win incoming?
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NASCAR.com's Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 NASCAR Cup Series contenders after Christopher Bell's win at Phoenix Raceway and before Sunday's race at Bristol Motor Speedway (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
20. Chase Briscoe (Not ranked last week)
Season-high: 17
Season-low: Out
Comment: The former Phoenix winner continues to be dialed in in the desert as his decent start to 2024 rolled on with a P8. The heralded dirt racer might be sad to see Bristol not run the dirt race this spring -- his only top 10 (P5) at the track on any surface came in last year's event.
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19. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (--)
Season-high: 16
Season-low: Out
Comment: Stenhouse is really starting to fade and there are plenty of drivers outside the top 20 who could take this spot soon, but it might not be until a few weeks down the road. The No. 47 Chevrolet driver has a strong chance to turn in his first top five since Bristol Dirt last year; the track -- on any surface, but particularly non-dirt -- stands as arguably his best.
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18. Michael McDowell (Not ranked last week)
Season-high: 16
Season-low: Out
Comment: It's been pretty remarkable to witness, but McDowell has gone from looking like a playoff hopeful to a legit playoff contender after years of just methodically building year over year and it's finally paying serious dividends. Bristol is a prime example of that, as he has an awful 27.9 overall finish ... but has three top-11 finishes there in the last four night races.
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17. Alex Bowman (--)
Season-high: 13
Season-low: 17
Comment: Bowman's Daytona 500 runner-up feels like a distant memory by now as the hot start to his rebound campaign fizzled out quickly with a 21.67 average finish in the three races since. He's had a couple of nice runs at Bristol in the past (top fives in 2018 and 2021) but has never led any of the 5,980 laps he's run there.
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16. Brad Keselowski (-1)
Season-high: 11
Season-low: 17
Comment: Oddly enough, Keselowski is averaging a 20.8 start and finish through four 2024 races, but just turned in his first top 10 (a P4 at Phoenix). Bristol has offered nothing but a mixed bag for him historically, with three trips to Victory Lane for the 2012 champ -- but just nine top 10s in 25 starts. He's the last non-dirt spring winner, however.
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15. Chris Buescher (+1)
Season-high: 11
Season-low: 16
Comment: Phoenix resulted in a nice P2 for Buescher, but a lack of stage points meant just 36 total for No. 17. For context, Denny Hamlin netted 42 points, despite finishing 11th. The recent Bristol winner will be licking his chops to get to the Tennessee track this weekend, however, and it's quite possible he finishes one spot higher this weekend.
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14. Bubba Wallace (--)
Season-high: 10
Season-low: 14
Comment: Wallace has had speed in his car the past two weekends, it just hasn't translated into any sort of success, earning just 23 points combined at Las Vegas and Phoenix. He's still on pace for a career-best average finish, however, and he'll look to earn his second career top 10 at Bristol in his 10th try on Sunday.
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13. Joey Logano (-3)
Season-high: 5
Season-low: 13
Comment: For a guy who has won two poles and started on the front row in three of the season's four races, it's pretty nuts to think the two-time champ Logano is on pace for -- by far -- his worst career average finish (25.8). He also, remarkably, hasn't finished in the top 10 at Bristol in a non-dirt race since 2019. He's a two-time winner there and can lead laps in bunches, so a rebound this weekend is extremely possible.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
12. Daniel Suárez (--)
Season-high: 12
Season-low: Out
Comment: No. 99's Atlanta win remains his only top 10 of the season through four races, but Suárez is still on pace for a career-high average finish (14.8). He had dual top 10s at Bristol in 2019 for his only such finishes at the track, but overall it's one where he quite consistently finishes in the front half of the pack which, at Bristol, is no easy feat.
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11. Chase Elliott (+2)
Season-high: 11
Season-low: 17
Comment: We're still looking for that first top 10 of 2024, but Elliott looked to be about on par with his teammates finally and actually landed in the top five in Stage 1. He's run quite well at Bristol in the past (11.9 average finish), even leading at least 23 laps in six straight races from 2018-21. He's yet to win there, however, aside from an All-Star Race victory in 2020.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
10. Kyle Busch (-3)
Season-high: 3
Season-low: 10
Comment: Busch got off to a sizzling start in 2023 before petering out a bit over the second half of the season. Thus far it's gone a bit the opposite way to start 2024 so Rowdy will certainly hope to end the season on a hot streak this year, but it's fair to wonder if things could go sour before then; he's already seen pit crew swaps. Perhaps Bristol is just what the doctor ordered -- the two-time champ is an eight-time winner in the Smoky Mountains, with a 2022 dirt win there, to boot.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
9. Denny Hamlin (-1)
Season-high: 1
Season-low: 9
Comment: The Phoenix pole winner did wind up leading 68 laps in Toyota's romp in the desert, but Hamlin finished just outside the top 10 (but, again, scored a strong 42 points as pointed out earlier). He's returning to the scene of where he beat your favorite driver, so you'd have to think Sunday marks a good spot for him to break into the win column in 2024.
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8. Tyler Reddick (+1)
Season-high: 8
Season-low: 14
Comment: Reddick looks fast every week right now, and his ranking here feels almost too low, dragged down by what is on pace to be a career-worst average finish (17.8). All the ingredients are here for several wins this year, however, and he'll very likely pick up his first laps led at Bristol this weekend.
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7. Christopher Bell (+4)
Season-high: 4
Season-low: 11
Comment: All the Toyotas looked fast at Phoenix -- and yet Bell was head and shoulders above them all, dominating the second half of the race for his first win since Homestead last fall. Bristol looks like a track that's going to be in his wheelhouse for the next decade-plus, as well, and two in a row is very much on the table.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
6. Ty Gibbs (--)
Season-high: 6
Season-low: 8
Comment: If we weren't so high on Gibbs this year already to this point, Sunday's career-best finish would've bumped him up, for sure. A mesmerizing, series-leading 8.8 average finish through four races shows the talented sophomore -- who, by virtue of his 2022 fill-in duty, is actually closing in on two full seasons' worth of starts -- is banging on the door of Victory Lane right now. The driver he replaced on the Cup side at JGR previously made Bristol his playground. Will No. 54 get it done this weekend?
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
5. Ross Chastain (--)
Season-high: 5
Season-low: 14
Comment: Despite being one of just three drivers with three top 10s this year, Chastain has yet to really take over a race (16 laps led) but it's only a matter of time with that kind of consistency. Bristol offers a good test for him, however, as Chastain has just two career top-20 finishes on the concrete layout there.
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4. William Byron (-1)
Season-high: 1
Season-low: 4
Comment: He's looked decent, but Byron hasn't been quite as dominant as it looked like he might be right out of the gate, but no cause for concern here. Byron has yet to lead a Bristol lap, but did turn in top-three finishes in two of his last three Night Races, all of which were top 10s.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
3. Martin Truex Jr. (+1)
Season-high: 3
Season-low: 10
Comment: Truex has been kind of quietly quite good to open the year after it was loudly pointed out for several months how dismal his 2023 playoffs were, so kudos to the No. 19 team for putting its head down and getting to work. We'll find out just how strong they've become this weekend, though, as Truex attempts to pick up his fifth career top 10 at Bristol -- in his 34th start there.
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2. Ryan Blaney (--)
Season-high: 2
Season-low: 5
Comment: Speaking of quietly strong starts, how about the reigning champ opening his title defense with three top fives -- one of which was a narrow loss in the third-closest finish ever -- in his first four races to relatively little fanfare. It makes sense given the hoopla of the season, but Blaney has been excellent so far. He once led 100-plus laps at Bristol in three straight races, so you get the sense he'll win one there eventually. Sunday marks a fine opportunity to do so.
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1. Kyle Larson (--)
Season-high: 1
Season-low: 5
Comment: Larson's victory remains his lone top 10 so far, but he's also led almost double the amount of laps as anybody else in the series, so, you know. The dirt maven may never get a shot at winning Bristol on dirt, but he surprisingly probably won't mind. Larson is lights out at Bristol on concrete, leading double-digit laps in eight of the last nine races with a win and 5.78 average finish over that span.