Power Rankings: Vegas to Richmond 2019

16. Erik Jones (-6): Jones was the unlucky recipient of a faulty transmission at Vegas, putting him a deep postseason hole. A Richmond rebound could be in the works, though, as the young driver was sixth in this race in 2017 and his decent 16.4 average finish is weighed down by a 38th-place finish (crash) in his first start in 2017.

15. Kurt Busch (-7): Busch is pretty consistently above average at Richmond, particularly from 2013 on. He's going to need to be excellent, however, as a disappointing day at Las Vegas has left him in a precarious hole in the early going of the NASCAR Playoffs.

14. Clint Bowyer (-5): Bowyer is 21 points below the cutline and can't afford another subpar run at Richmond. He likely won't have as good of a starting position as Vegas either, considering that was his first pole in 12 years. If he can replicate his P3 Richmond finish from the spring, it'll go a long way.

13. Aric Almirola (+3): Just barely above the cutline, Almirola needs to keep it clean this weekend and finish in the top half of the field at the very least. He has two top fives at Richmond in the past, and they each came in the fall race (2015, '18).

12. Ryan Newman (+3): Newman is below the cutline but is actually pretty well positioned to advance if he keeps on doing what he has been doing. Richmond lines up well for him, too, with 19 top 10s in 35 starts for a strong 12.5 average finish.

11. Alex Bowman (+1): Bowman has acknowledged Richmond as his weakness in the Round of 16 -- he has yet to finish in the top 10 in seven tries -- but he's getting closer there. The Hendrick Motorsports driver led a lap and finished 12th in this race last year, which would be serviceable this weekend.

10. William Byron (+3): Byron has yet to finish in the top 10 in his three Richmond starts, but two of those races netted finishes of 13th or better. If he can muster a similar result or better, he'll be relatively comfortable heading into the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.

9. Ryan Blaney (+5): Blaney did exactly what he had to do at Vegas: pull out a really strong finish, because one this weekend isn't likely. He's talented enough and likely will have a fast car, but his Richmond history is spotty. He has never finished in the top 10, and his two best finishes are just shy of 20th.

8. Kyle Larson (+3): Larson continues to slowly build a sleeper case for a deep postseason run with a serviceable eighth-place Vegas showing. As the winner of this Richmond race two years ago, it's not out of the question he could pick up his first win of 2019 on Saturday and have people asking if he's a title favorite by Monday.

7. Chase Elliott (+1): Elliott struggled over his first four Richmond starts, with no top 10s and an average finish of 17.75. Things have ticked up for him there the past four trips, with three top 10s, a runner-up in last year's spring race and 34 laps led in this race last year en route to a P4. He's in good shape.

6. Denny Hamlin (-2): Though Las Vegas was an unmemorable race for him (15th), Hamlin should have a strong run this weekend at Richmond. He always seems to have a shot at his home track, where he won this race in 2016 and has a series-best 1,659 laps led.

5. Brad Keselowski (+1): From 2014 on, Keselowski has been lights-out at Richmond with a win, one finish worse than 11th and an average finish of 7.45. Coming off a series of strong recent runs, he'll be one to watch this weekend.

4. Joey Logano (-1): Logano might as well be penciled in for the Round of 12 based on his current place in the standings (third) and Richmond stats. He'd need disaster to strike, and it's unlikely as the Team Penske driver has finished in the top 10 there in 10 of the last 11 races with two wins. It's among his best tracks.

3. Kyle Busch (-2): Expect Busch to come out of the gates firing on all cylinders all weekend after an emotional, frustrating weekend at Vegas. He is the race's defending winner after sweeping Richmond last year, has twice as many wins there as any other active driver and boats a ridiculous 7.0 average finish. He's the favorite.

2. Kevin Harvick (--): The way he's running right now, Harvick is going to be in the conversation for the win on a weekly basis. His Richmond history doesn't hurt either, with an excellent 9.9 average finish and three wins. He has won the last two poles there, too.

1. Martini Truex Jr. (+4): And down goes 'Rowdy.' Truex is the new No. 1, replacing Busch at the top for the first week since Texas last fall, and for good reason. He now holds a series-best five 2019 wins, led a race-high 163 laps in this race last year en route to a P3 finish and, oh yeah, won there earlier this year. It's quite possible he and crew chief Cole Pearn were tinkering with the playoffs in mind during a 10-race winless stretch during the summer, and the dynamic duo might just be getting started.