BACK TO GALLERIES
Predicting every 2020 NASCAR Cup Series race winner
By Zack Albert and Pat DeCola | Published: February 13, 2020 39
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Before the Daytona 500, NASCAR.com's Zack Albert and Pat DeCola took turns predicting each NASCAR Cup Series race winner. See all the predictions, with updates based on the season's first four races.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Daytona 500
Zack's pick: Brad Keselowski
Why: He's gotten all the Speedweeks bad luck out of his system, right? Keselowski's Talladega magic finally translates to February in Daytona, and one of the best superspeedway racers in the game finally gets his 500.
Actual winner: Denny Hamlin.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Las Vegas-1
Pat's pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: Truex won at Vegas last fall -- after starting 24th -- and has been the most dominant driver there over the past 10 races (418 points). Former crew chief Cole Pearn may be gone, but his notes on the track likely aren't.
Actual winner: Joey Logano.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Auto Club
Zack's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: Rowdy has three wins at the California track since 2013, including a dominant Auto Club victory last season. His average finish (9.3) in the last 10 Fontana races is also the series' best.
Actual winner: Alex Bowman.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Phoenix-1
Pat's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: A Joe Gibbs Racing car has won the past three races at Phoenix, two of them by Busch. Last year's champ keeps it rolling and strikes early in 2020.
Actual winner: Joey Logano.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Atlanta
Zack's pick: Kevin Harvick
Why: Happy's recent run of excellence at Atlanta has netted five straight top-10 finishes, including one pole (2017) and one win (2018), plus 100-plus laps led in four of those five starts. Expect another triumphant showing on the worn Georgia asphalt.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Homestead-Miami
Pat's pick: Kyle Larson
Why: After three straight top fives at Miami from 2015-17, Larson finally rides the wall into a trip to Victory Lane -- unfortunately for him, though, the Miami race takes place in March this season and is no longer the championship venue.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Texas-1
Zack's pick: Erik Jones
Why: The Lone Star State has rounded into one of Jones' better tracks, and his average finish of 6.4 in the last five Texas races is second only to Kevin Harvick's sublime 2.6. The 23-year-old is in need of a breakthrough year; expect the team to take chances to get it.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Bristol-1
Pat's pick: Kyle Larson
Why: A quartet of front-row starting positions and pair of runner-up finishes over the last six Bristol races have all the makings of Bristol becoming one of Larson's strongest tracks. It finally clicks in this one, as Larson's hot streak to begin the season rolls on.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Richmond-1
Zack's pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: MTJ went the longest time without a short-track win. Now he's staring down a third straight Richmond triumph on the heels of his 2019 season sweep in the Virginia capital.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Talladega-1
Pat's pick: Ryan Blaney
Why: It was extremely tempting to go with 'Dega master Joey Logano here, but perhaps the No. 22 pushes fall 2019 Talladega winner Blaney to the checkered flag and into Victory Lane (pictured above).
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Dover-1
Zack's pick: Kyle Larson
Why: The California driver has expressed an affinity for the Monster Mile's high banks and claimed his first win there in last year's playoffs. Expect him to lead laps in bunches again.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Martinsville-1
Pat's pick: Brad Keselowski
Why: Keselowski flat-out dominated this race last year to the tune of 446 laps led. He's finished outside the top five there just once since 2015 -- and that was a top 10.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Coca-Cola 600
Zack's pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: It's tough to go against the favorite here. Riding a series-best average finish of 3.5 in Charlotte oval track races the last four years, Truex gets a third 600 win.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Bonus: All-Star Race
Zack's pick: Chase Elliott
Why: Anything can happen in the non-points one-off at Charlotte. Hedging here that there's a first-time All-Star winner for the second straight year, this time with the No. 9 driver.
Pat's pick: Jimmie Johnson
Why: Jimmie returns to Victory Lane at his old stomping grounds one final time, albeit in an exhibition race. There was once a time where the assumption was Charlotte was always Jimmie's race to lose, and this event will remind everyone why.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kansas-1
Pat's pick: Erik Jones
Why: Jones' worst finish in his four races at Kansas behind the wheel of the No. 20? Seventh. We'll see soon enough that 1.5-mile tracks are his specialty.
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Geoff Burke | Getty Images
Michigan-1
Zack's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: The 34-year-old driver has been in the hunt at Michigan the last two seasons, hovering around a top five. Getting over the hump in the Irish Hills should be a convincing kickoff to the summer months.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Sonoma
Pat's pick: Denny Hamlin
Why: It seems strange that Hamlin has just six top 10s in 14 Sonoma starts, because he's been so good there lately. Four straight top 10s and a near-win in 2016 make us think he's next in line to sip some wine.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Chicagoland
Zack's pick: William Byron
Why: Last year's trip to Illinois produced a first-time winner from Hendrick Motorsports in Alex Bowman. A similar situation could be on tap this year, but it's possible -- even likely -- that Byron scratches Victory Lane before Chicago.
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Pocono-1
Pat's pick: Cole Custer
Why: Biggest curveball pick so far here, with Custer winning the opener of the Pocono double. He'll have half a season of Cup racing under him at this point and had a stranglehold on the track the past three seasons in the Xfinity Series.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Pocono-2
Zack's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: Rowdy has been dynamite at Pocono in recent memory, picking up a win in each of the last three years. Expect another in the doubleheader weekend.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Brickyard 400
Pat's pick: William Byron
Why: Though he missed out on completing the circuit of crown jewel poles for last year's Brickyard 400, Byron still finished fourth in that race -- one of NASCAR's toughest. His crew chief knows a thing or two about The Brickyard and Byron will emerge to kiss the bricks and extend his summer hot streak.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kentucky
Zack's pick: Joey Logano
Why: The No. 22 driver has been in the hunt at the Bluegrass State track before with six top 10s in nine starts there. A Kentucky first is due.
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Chris Trotman | Getty Images
New Hampshire
Pat's pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: The northeast native has a long history at the "Magic Mile," but no Cup Series wins in 26 starts. Five straight top-seven finishes there -- with 83 or more laps led in four of them -- indicate he's getting closer.
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Michigan-2
Zack's pick: Kyle Larson
Why: Sweeping 2-mile tracks have been a specialty for Larson, and Michigan has yielded half of his six career wins. He's primed for his first since a Michigan season sweep in 2017.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Watkins Glen
Pat's pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: Truex has developed into one of the best road racers in the sport, with Watkins Glen serving as his personal playground. Only thing is: after winning in 2017, Chase Elliott pushed him off the swing to second place each of the past two years. Expect Truex to have this one circled.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Dover-2
Zack's pick: Chase Elliott
Why: The Monster Mile seems like the right place for some pre-playoff momentum for Elliott, who has a pole and a win in Dover's last three races.
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Jeff Curry | Getty Images
Daytona-2
Pat's pick: Tyler Reddick
Why: Whoa! Reddick wins Daytona and sneaks into the Playoffs? Yep. This will be Reddick's third Cup race at Daytona, a track he showed confidence at in the Xfinity Series (2018 win, two poles in six races). When Daytona is the regular-season cutoff, this kind of stuff happens.
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Jerry Markland | Getty Images
Southern 500 (NASCAR Playoffs start)
Zack's pick: Denny Hamlin
Why: Joe Gibbs Racing-affiliated entries have won four of the last five in NASCAR's Throwback Weekend. Hamlin's No. 11 is poised to keep that run going, securing his third career Darlington victory.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Richmond-2
Pat's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: Busch has six wins at Richmond, two of which have come since the start of 2017. He has another three runner-up finishes since the start of 2015. He has led laps in eight of the last nine races there. I'm comfortable writing this one down in pen.
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Bristol-2
Zack's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: Eight career wins -- including three in the last five Bristol races -- make Busch another heavy favorite for Night Race glory.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Las Vegas-2
Pat's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: Quite the streak for Rowdy, who picks up his third straight win, and his first at his home track since 2009. He's had a couple of clunkers there lately (2017-1, 2019-2) but for the most part has had a contending car each race since 2013.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Talladega-2
Zack's pick: Aric Almirola
Why: Count on some postseason havoc at Talladega? Sure, but this pick isn't as bonkers as one might think. The driver with the longest string of Talladega top 10s is Almirola, who sprinkled a 2018 win into an especially charmed span.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Charlotte-2
Pat's pick: Alex Bowman
Why: Though he hasn't won either of the two events yet, Bowman has taken to the Roval as good as anybody else, with an average start of 2.5 and average finish of 3.0. He gets redemption for racing his heart out last fall and will instead be sprayed with champagne in Victory Lane.
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Kansas-2
Zack's pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: Kansas has been too kind to Truex in recent years, providing a memorable season sweep for him in 2017. He should deliver again in the Round of 8 kickoff.
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Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images
Texas-2
Pat's pick: Joey Logano
Why: It's been awhile since Logano won here -- spring 2014 -- but he's been consistently strong since, with eight top-seven finishes. Logano dons the cowboy hat and rides his way into the Championship 4.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Martinsville-2
Zack's pick: Jimmie Johnson
Why: The best way to tell #OneFinalTime is with one final clock, courtesy of the Virginia short track that's played host to nine wins for the No. 48 through the years.
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Chris Trotman | Getty Images
Phoenix-2
Pat's pick: Kevin Harvick
Why: Busch should have saved one of those wins for Phoenix, where instead he's bested by Harvick for the championship. The "Cactus King" reclaims his desert throne, taking his 10th Phoenix victory and celebrating his second career championship.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
And when the checkered flag falls at Phoenix Raceway to deem the end of the 2020 season, here are some nuggets our predictions indicate:
-- 16 total race winners
-- Three first-time winners
-- Kyle Busch leads the series with seven wins, followed by Truex (six) and Larson (four)
-- Drivers to lock themselves into the Playoffs with wins, assuming a top-30 points standing: Keselowski, Truex, Kyle Busch, Harvick, Larson, Jones, Blaney, Logano, Hamlin, Byron, Custer, Reddick
-- Drivers to clinch Round of 12 spot with win: Hamlin, Busch
-- Drivers to clinch Round of 8 spot with win (if in playoffs still): Almirola, Bowman
-- Drivers to clinch Championship 4 spot with win (if in playoffs still): Truex, Logano ... Johnson
Champion: Harvick
-- 16 total race winners
-- Three first-time winners
-- Kyle Busch leads the series with seven wins, followed by Truex (six) and Larson (four)
-- Drivers to lock themselves into the Playoffs with wins, assuming a top-30 points standing: Keselowski, Truex, Kyle Busch, Harvick, Larson, Jones, Blaney, Logano, Hamlin, Byron, Custer, Reddick
-- Drivers to clinch Round of 12 spot with win: Hamlin, Busch
-- Drivers to clinch Round of 8 spot with win (if in playoffs still): Almirola, Bowman
-- Drivers to clinch Championship 4 spot with win (if in playoffs still): Truex, Logano ... Johnson
Champion: Harvick