BACK TO GALLERIES
Predicting every 2023 NASCAR Cup Series race winner
By John Crane, Pat DeCola and Sean Montgomery | Published: February 11, 2023 38
Mike Ehrmann | Getty Images
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Mike Ehrmann | Getty Images
Before the 2023 Daytona 500, NASCAR.com's John Crane, Pat DeCola and Sean Montgomery took turns predicting each NASCAR Cup Series race winner for the season ahead. See all the predictions before NASCAR's historic 75th anniversary season kicks off.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Daytona 500
Sean's pick: Austin Cindric
Why: Ford, and specifically Team Penske, has figured out a formula for getting relatively consistent finishes in superspeedway races — and Cindric, though young, may prove to be the best of them all when it’s said and done. The 2022 Daytona 500 winner burst onto the full-time scene with a monumental win and backed that performance up with a third-place run at Daytona in the summer race. Some drivers just know how to get it done at Daytona, and Cindric will be the first back-to-back Daytona 500 winner since Denny Hamlin (2019-2020).
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Katelyn Mulcahy | Getty Images
Auto Club
John's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: Given that 2023 is the track’s last year in the classic 2-mile configuration, every driver will look to leave one lasting impression. No driver, however, will do so as much as Busch, who ranks second among all active and former drivers in wins (four) and third in average finish (9.8) in 23 total races. Only Jimmie Johnson (six wins, 7.6 average finish) and Carl Edwards (8.7 average finish) have him beat. Solid company, it looks like. Should Richard Childress Racing and Busch look to make a statement early, look no further.
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Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images
Las Vegas-1
Pat's pick: Ryan Blaney
Why: Blaney has led in seven straight Las Vegas races and eight of the last 10 — yet remains winless at the Nevada track, with a best finish of fifth (five times!). Look for No. 12 to clinch his playoff spot early by finally breaking through at the 1.5-mile facility.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
Phoenix-1
Sean's pick: Ryan Blaney
Why: Racing in the shadow of teammate and Championship 4 contender Joey Logano, Blaney arguably had the best car in last season’s Phoenix finale. Something about that missed opportunity, not only of coming in second but missing the Championship 4 entirely, won’t sit well with Blaney. And after a winless 2022 campaign full of watching his teammates celebrate in Victory Lane, he will want to prove he can win at one of his better tracks. Based on Pat’s previous pick, it looks like Blaney will be off to a hot start.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Atlanta-1
John's pick: Ross Chastain
Why: A major repave and configuration change last year gave the field a newfound perspective of a track that could very well be seen as a miniature Daytona 500. No driver wishes to cash in on that view more than Chastain, who blew a tire, slammed into Turn 2’s outside wall and lost two laps for improper fueling during the spring showing last year. Even still, the Trackhouse Racing star finished second during that March run and followed it up with another runner-up finish in July. This year, Chastain breaks through.
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Circuit of The Americas
Pat's pick: Daniel Suárez
Why: Yes, Suárez has yet to finish in the top 20 through NASCAR's first two shots at running Austin's exceptional road course. If you'll recall, however, his teammate Ross Chastain picked up the checkered flag last year (a good sign for the team overall) after Suárez himself won Stage 1 and led 15 laps. He later won at Sonoma, and should be a force at the season's first road-course race this year once again.
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Richmond-1
Sean's pick: Christopher Bell
Why: In his first Cup Series race at Richmond in 2020, Bell finished 15th. Since then, he hasn’t finished out of the top six — incredible. The young JGR wheelman seems to have this track figured out and keeps getting stronger as the years go on. After a runner-up finish here in the fall, let’s bet on him to pick up one more spot en route to his first victory of 2023.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Bristol Dirt
John's pick: Kyle Larson
Why: I am going to go out on a (perhaps optimistic) limb – Mother Nature cooperates during this race. Two years, two races on the dirt and two weather issues that either postponed or delayed the race in back-to-back years have certainly made for two wild finishes. This year is the year for less rain and for a more attuned racer with a lengthier dirt background to take the crown. Kyle Larson, the floor (or track) is yours.
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Martinsville-1
Pat's pick: Brad Keselowski
Why: Guess who's back, back again? Though last year's maiden run into the world of driver/ownership was not without its bruises, lest we forget that Keselowski is still a champion of the sport and was a near-perennial Championship 4 contender for the past decade until 2022 ... who also has a pair of Martinsville wins in 2017 and '19. He's been among the best there the past decade as well, and here's where it all starts to come back together for him.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Talladega-1
Sean's pick: Bubba Wallace
Why: Though Wallace showed massive improvements with his dominant win at Kansas Speedway in 2022, a track like Talladega is still his bet chance at keeping his consecutive-seasons-with-a-win streak alive. His first premier series victory set the stage for his recent success in 2020 and it should bode well for him again this season. A 16th- and 17th-place finish here in 2022 doesn’t tell the story of how consistent he usually is at plate racing.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Dover-1
John's pick: Alex Bowman
Why: It seems like the “Monster Mile” has favored Bowman as of late, and I imagine the affection is reciprocated. After finishing no better than 20th in his first six races at the track, Bowman has found his groove. One of Bowman’s seven career Cup wins comes there (2021), and in his 12 total starts, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has finished inside the top five in five of them. All five of those finishes have come in his last six races at the track, dating back to May 2019. His success continues this year in the form of another dub.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Kansas-1
Pat's pick: Tyler Reddick
Why: Reddick has just one top 10 at Kansas since finishing ninth there in his second-ever Cup race, but there's still reason for optimism here. The car he'll be driving won the most recent Kansas race, he's a recent mile-and-a-half winner himself (Texas) and he's the most recent pole winner at Kansas (pictured), starting on the front row in both 2022 races and leading double-digit laps in both. What's not to like?
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Darlington-1
Seans pick: Kevin Harvick
Why: It would be fitting, wouldn’t it? For a race with so much throwback tradition and on the 75th anniversary of the sport, one of NASCAR’s aging superstars reaching Victory Lane in his final season. It wouldn’t be a fluke either. Harvick has three wins at Darlington, and before last year’s playoffs, held a streak of 13 consecutive top-10 finishes at the track “Too Tough to Tame.” He knows how to get it done here as well as anyone.
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Sarah Crabill | Getty Images
All-Star Race
John's pick: Joey Logano
Why: If 2022 taught us anything, it is that Logano has a knack for winning not only marquee races but inaugural ones, too. He won the first-ever Busch Light Clash at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. He triumphed during World Wide Technology’s maiden run. And just for good measure, he crossed Victory Lane and hoisted the 2022 championship crown at Phoenix. Did I mention he also won the inaugural Bristol Dirt Race in 2021? As such, it is only natural for Logano to take home the All-Star honors at a track — North Wilkesboro's long-awaited return — that will see NASCAR Cup Series action on it for the first time in 27 years. Logano finishing inside the top 10 in 14 of his 15 All-Star races (dating back to 2009) also plays a part.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Charlotte-1
Pat's pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: There was a time in the not-too-distant past when this would look like a chalk pick, but Truex was held winless — and subsequently missed the playoffs — in 2022. As we saw in the Busch Light Clash, however, Truex is set for a major rebound in '23, and the race in which he turned in one of NASCAR's all-time great performances feels like a good spot for a return to form.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Gateway
Sean's pick: Kyle Larson
Why: Larson was a tough choice here because he didn’t make much noise in this race last season, despite a respectable 12th-place result. If he can hang around the top 10 for much of this race, Larson, crew chief Cliff Daniels and the entire No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team can prove how valuable they are as a unit and clean up some of the mishaps from 2022. He likely won’t be favored to win this race, but it won’t matter.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Sonoma
John's pick: Kevin Harvick
Why: After finishing outside the top 10 in five of his first six Cup races at Sonoma, Harvick has found it at the road course, especially over his last 10 races, which includes one win (2017), four top-five finishes, seven top-10 finishes and a 9.1 average finish. A Sonoma swan song for the 23-year Cup veteran? What could be sweeter, aside from the wine?
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Nashville
Pat's pick: William Byron
Why: Byron's 35th-place finish at Nashville last season is misleading — there was an early lightning delay in the race and his No. 24 Chevy was forced to the garage with a broken steering rack minutes after resumption. His teammate went on to win and he was P3 in the inaugural running the year before, so it stands to reason he had another top-five effort in him had things not been derailed. Let's cross our fingers for no more lightning, and, if so, plan on Byron getting the job done in Tennessee.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Chicago Street Race
Sean's pick: Tyler Reddick
Why: Reddick’s driving style has seemingly fit NASCAR’s road-course schedule perfectly. He was the clear driver to beat during last year’s circuit races and should carry that knowledge into this new season. In the land of co-owner Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls, 23XI Racing will certainly put their best foot forward — and they may have a budding road-course ace in Reddick.
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Kevin C. Cox | Getty Images
Atlanta-2
John's pick: Ryan Blaney
Why: Despite failing to win a race in 2022, Blaney still found enough in his No. 12 Team Penske Ford to drive into the Round of 8. This year, Blaney breaks the ice early and doesn’t ease up, and what better way to prepare for a postseason push than on an intermediate circuit, where the 29-year-old possesses a 10.7 average start and 1,469 total laps led? This is a good match.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Loudon
Pat's pick: Ty Gibbs
Why: Flashback: it's 2009. A fresh-faced, young talent recently replaced a longtime Joe Gibbs Racing legend, then wins his first Cup race at New Hampshire. You catch my drift? Gibbs finished 21st in the Xfinity Series race there last year but led 49 laps. This is a great spot for him to capitalize on No. 1 (of many to come).
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Tim Nwachukwu | Getty Images
Pocono
Sean's pick: Kyle Busch
Why: In his last 10 trips to the “Tricky Triangle,” Busch has an astounding 40% win rate and only two finishes outside the top 10. Acknowledging he is with a new team with different data, the muscle memory is still there for a driver who should be in the mix more often than not. It likely won’t be his first win of the season, but it will be one that pushes him that much closer to a third championship.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Richmond-2
John's pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: Truex Jr. has finished seventh or better in each of his last eight Richmond contests, dating back to September 2018. A respectable seventh-place finish last August was his worst over the stretch as it snapped a seven-race streak of finishing inside the top five. His 3.0 average finish in those eight races (not a typo, I assure you) laps the competition, as do his 725 laps led. Where there is a will, there is a way. For Truex Jr., simply showing up seems to do the trick at this track.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
Michigan
Pat's pick: Kyle Larson
Why: Eventually '2-mile Kyle', who took three straight at Michigan from 2016-17 in his Ganassi days, will claim another checkered flag in the Irish Hills. He's only improved since then and is in absolute top-tier equipment now. Pencil it in.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Indianapolis Road Course
Sean's pick: AJ Allmendinger
Why: If I had to pick just one driver to win multiple at multiple road courses this season, it would be AJ Allmendinger. Allmendinger’s close-quarters racing style has benefitted him at road courses throughout his career. In both Indy GP races he’s qualified for, he has won a race and finished seventh in the other. Those were both in part-time seasons. It will be exciting for fans to see how he performs in this car with an increased comfort level.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Watkins Glen
John's pick: Chase Elliott
Why: Sometimes, the excerpts write themselves. When you think of excelling at road courses, Elliott is a go-to, especially at the Glen. Elliott’s 5.7 average finish ranks third-best among all Cup tracks he has driven and first among tracks he has driven at least five times at. Elliott came close last year – he led 29 laps – before his teammate in Kyle Larson overtook him for the win (Elliott finished fourth). This year, the pendulum swings in the No. 9’s favor.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Daytona-2
Pat's pick: Justin Haley
Why: Hey, we've seen it before. Only this time, Haley is actually much-better positioned to race to the finish for the win rather than being in the right place at the right time when weather hits. We saw how strong he looked in the preseason opener in LA and it's conceivable that he won't even need to win here to make the playoffs — it's possible he's already in by now.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Darlington-2
Sean's pick: Joey Logano
Why: Logano’s take-everything-give-nothing racing style is perfect for Darlington; and it showed with his spring victory last season and a fourth-place finish in the fall. If anything, Logano is consistent and persistent, which bodes well for the daunting Southern 500 race. Logano will reach Victory Lane here and solidify his standing as one of the top Championship 4 contenders, yet again.
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Jamie Squire | Getty Images
Kansas-2
John's pick: Denny Hamlin
Why: Last year, the 23XI part-owner in Hamlin saw the 23XI driver in Bubba Wallace claim Victory Lane during the September running at the track. Of course, Hamlin didn’t finish too far behind – his second-place finish was his best since winning at the track in July 2020. His 11 top-five finishes at the track in 29 races are second only to Kevin Harvick’s 12 in 34 races. Over their last 10 races, though, Hamlin has his fellow racing veteran beat (six top-five finishes compared to five). Hamlin will also beat him out for the win during the height of postseason action.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Bristol-2
Pat's pick: Kyle Larson
Why: A Bristol sweep on two different surfaces? Why not — if there's anybody that can do it, it's one of the Kyles. While he's yet to capture one there on dirt, Larson won this rave in 2021 and has come close several other times. He'll get it done once more.
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Tim Heitman | Getty Images
Texas
Sean's pick: Tyler Reddick
Why: Including his Xfinity Series statistics, Reddick has a fantastic track record at Texas Motor Speedway; and he finally got in the Cup Series win column here last fall. Reddick drove four Cup races with RCR at Texas and posted a 6.8 average finish which gives him much-needed confidence in his first season with a new team. Don’t expect his results here to be any different.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Talladega-2
John's pick: Erik Jones
Why: Jones’ 68 laps led over the last five races at the superspeedway rank third among all active drivers. This mark ranks ahead of four of the five winners in that span (Denny Hamlin ranks first with 104 laps led and won in October 2020). Talladega can be notoriously fickle, but something has to give. Jones has shown a tendency to play spoiler during the early playoff rounds, such as with his win at Darlington to open the Round of 16 last season. Expect a similar theme this season.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Charlotte Roval
Pat's pick: Alex Bowman
Why: Onto the Round of 8? Though he's led just two total laps, Bowman has landed in the top 10 in all four Roval races so far — including a runner-up in 2019 — and has as good a shot as any here in what's been somewhat of a wild-card race to date. Road courses in general stand as his best tracks, results-wise, with an average finish of 15.6.
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Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images
Las Vegas-2
Sean's pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: Truex’s 2023 season will be one of the hottest story lines of the year after a forgetful 2022. Las Vegas has historically been one of his better tracks on the schedule, with a pair of wins and 10 top-10 finishes in his last 11 starts. Knowing how many missed opportunities they could have capitalized on in the inaugural Next Gen season, Truex and Co. won’t waste these opportunities this time around.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Homestead-Miami
John's pick: Tyler Reddick
Why: The “Reddick line” might have suffered a setback after a crash during the 2022 contest resulted in a 35th-place finish. Even still, the reputation still holds merit, given his two top-five finishes in 2020 and 2021 (fourth and second, respectively). Will Reddick attempt to run the line again? More than likely. And will it be enough this time around? You bet.
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Sarah Crabill | Getty Images
Martinsville-2
Pat's pick: Joey Logano
Why: Somehow the photo above stands as Logano's only Martinsville victory in 28 attempts, many of which have been exceptional. The defending champ has seven straight top 10s there and has led more than 200 laps in a single race three times. If he's in must-win territory in order to advance and defend his title, you better believe he gets it done.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Phoenix-2
Sean's pick: Chase Elliott
Why: Despite all his success in 2022, Elliott sort of flew under the radar with so many other story lines — but the 2020 Cup Series champion won’t let it happen again. Though he may not reach his five-win total from a season ago, his performance will shine in the moment that matters. Elliott and the No. 9 team will reach the Championship 4 for the fourth consecutive season and bounce back from a disappointing end to their season in 2022. Two-time Cup Series champion, Chase Elliott.