Ranking Sunday’s Phoenix top-10 finishers by likelihood of making the Championship 4

Sunday's spring date at Phoenix Raceway did more than just crown a race winner. It also provided a potential indicator on what the championship field could look like when the Cup Series returns to Arizona in the fall. According to Racing Insights, 12 of the last 16 Championship 4 drivers (dating back to 2020) finished inside the top 10 during the Phoenix spring race. 

With this in mind, let's dive into yesterday's top-10 finishers and rank each driver by their likelihood of racing for the Bill France Cup come November. 

RELATED: Phoenix race results

10. Chase Briscoe 

2024 Phoenix spring finish: 9th 

Comment: There's no doubt the No. 14 Ford has shown the tendency to thrive at Phoenix in the spring; in his two previous Phoenix spring races, Briscoe finished first (2022) and seventh (2023). However, a rough track record at other playoff sites -- not to mention a deep field overall -- likely puts the 29-year-old on the outside looking in this year.

9. Michael McDowell 

2024 Phoenix spring finish: 8th 

Comment: Similarly to Briscoe, this placement shouldn't be seen as too much of a knock. After all, McDowell already has a pair of top 10s to his name this season and has 37 circuits led ... well on his way to crush his 97 total laps led in 2023. However, performances at Kansas, Talladega and the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course, in particular -- where he has four top-10 finishes over 57 combined races -- might prove to be too heavy of a hurdle to overcome. How so? All three tracks make up the Round of 12 this season. While McDowell certainly possesses the speed to turn his fortunes around at these venues, as of right now, he remains on the latter end of this ranking.

8. Brad Keselowski 

2024 Phoenix spring finish: 4th 

Comment: Five career Phoenix races in the Next Gen era have only yielded one top 10 for Keselowski, and it came on Sunday. However, after learning the tricks of the driver/owner trade in 2022 -- and rebounding in 2023, even without a race win -- Keselowski is close to regaining Playoffs contender status.

7. Ty Gibbs 

2024 Phoenix spring finish: 3rd 

Comment: This is the circumstance where speed plays more than experience. Gibbs' third-place finish at Phoenix was not only his best at the track but the best in his Cup career up to this point. Plus, the 21-year-old already has 57 laps led this year ... all from Sunday's race. The upside showed itself in glimpses last season. So far, that upside looks to still be there, and the No. 54 is only going to get better from here. And faster.

6. Martin Truex Jr. 

2024 Phoenix spring finish: 7th 

Comment: A seventh-place triumph on Sunday, coupled with a sixth-place result in the fall, provides the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota with a fair dose of positive momentum, especially after last season's postseason falloff. Truex currently sits third in the standings. So, while sixth in this ranking might seem a hair low for a perennial Championship 4 contender, last season's playoff results should matter to some degree, given he will have to perform better if he wishes to fight for a Phoenix berth this time around. Of note: Truex's lone Phoenix win came in the spring of 2021, and he made the Championship 4 that same year. Perhaps this year's top 10 rekindles that trend?

5. Chris Buescher 

2024 Phoenix spring finish: 2nd

Comment: Buescher might not have a 2024 win to his name, but if we recall, Buescher's 2023 -- which saw him eventually finish a career-best seventh in the standings -- picked up steam as the season transitioned into the summer months. The key for Buescher this year will be to show more speed in the playoff races; Buescher led only 24 laps during all 10 postseason contests last year, most of which came in the finale after he'd been eliminated.

4. Tyler Reddick 

2024 Phoenix spring finish: 10th 

Comment: Three wins in 2022, coupled with another pair of Victory Lane appearances in 2023, have Reddick on the right track to the Championship 4 path. His success at Phoenix is already well-known as he has three top-10 finishes there since the beginning of 2022. Now, it's about finishing off each playoff round on a high note. After a 26th-place finish at Martinsville in the Round of 8 finale last season, you bet this will be a point of emphasis. 

3. Ross Chastain

2024 Phoenix spring finish: 6th 

Comment: Even when you exclude his Phoenix win in the 2023 finale, Chastain has put on strong showings in the desert. The No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet has three additional top-10 finishes, including a runner-up result during the spring running in 2022. We've seen him do whatever it takes — literally — to make a Championship 4 before and this team looks locked in for a fruitful 2024 campaign. The upside is there, and the track record is there, too.

2. Ryan Blaney 

2024 Phoenix spring finish: 5th

Comment: Blaney's Phoenix resume in the Next Gen era is practically spotless. All five races dating back to 2022 have resulted in top-five finishes, and while the No. 12 Team Penske Ford has yet to traditionally find Victory Lane at the track, he did triumph there in the fall last year by finishing second in the race and winning the 2023 title. His champion status and spring performance make him high on this list.

1. Christopher Bell 

2024 Phoenix spring finish: 1st

Comment: Yes, Blaney is the reigning champion, but winning Sunday's spring race has to account for something, right? With a win in hand this early in the season, Bell can now prepare for the postseason at his own pace. For No. 20, the key will come in execution -- he has already made the Championship 4 in back-to-back years, so the ability to get to the championship race is already apparent. Now, the name of the game will be in executing just enough precision during the season finale. If so, the crown can be his for the taking. And he's the most likely from Sunday's top 10 to have the shot to do so.