Ranking the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs field in tiers

With the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs set, it's time to get a lay of the land and look at where each title hopeful stands heading into the postseason opener Sunday at Atlanta (3 p.m. ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). 

Within the 16 drivers, we've divided them into four separate tiers from long shots to championship favorites. See where each driver is grouped entering the playoffs. 

RELATED: Atlanta schedule | Top-seeded Larson expects playoff shake-ups

LONG SHOTS

Everyone loves a good underdog story and while Harrison Burton, Austin Cindric, Daniel Suárez and Chase Briscoe all won their way into the playoffs via victories, it's hard to carve a realistic path to the Bill France Cup for any of them. 

With that said, winning goes a long way and with Atlanta on the docket in the Round of 16, any one of these four could easily win there and advance further in the postseason. 

HARRISON BURTON

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Talladega
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Watkins Glen, Bristol, Kansas

PROS: Burton won at Daytona to clinch his maiden Cup victory and playoff berth. With Atlanta kicking off the postseason, the No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing driver will carry a lot of momentum and confidence into Sunday's race, with hopes of snagging an automatic berth into the Round of 12. The three-race stretch to close the regular season (Michigan, Daytona, Darlington) was the most points the third-year veteran had scored in that given span the entire year (79). 

CONS: This is still trending to be Burton's worst Cup season in terms of average finish (25.7), and he entered the playoffs last among full-time drivers in points during the regular season. Among the rest of the Round of 16 tracks, Burton has a best finish of just 25th at road courses this season (twice) and was 32nd in the spring race at Bristol. 

AUSTIN CINDRIC

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Talladega, Martinsville
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Bristol, Kansas, Las Vegas

PROS: Team Penske has won the last two Cup titles with Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney. It would be quite a surprise to see Cindric become a Cup titleholder this year, but if there's one thing the organization does well, it's capitalize at the right time. Cindric's aggressive superspeedway style could serve him well at Atlanta and pay vital points in the first two stages. But as we saw just two weeks ago at Daytona, it can come back to bite him in the closing laps as the No. 2 driver was involved in multiple incidents. 

CONS: Despite having playoff experience in 2022 and advancing a round, Atlanta will still be must-win if Cindric wants to do the same. He was 31st at Bristol earlier this year, and while road courses are one of Cindric's strong suits, he's finished no better than 15th in that discipline this season (Chicago).

DANIEL SUÁREZ

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Las Vegas, Homestead
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Kansas, Talladega, Charlotte Roval

PROS: It's hard to sweep at a drafting track, but Suárez will likely be in the mix late in hopes of accomplishing just that on Sunday. With Trackhouse Racing teammate Ross Chastain not in the postseason, the No. 1 team will likely try to help Suárez as much as possible. Suárez was outside the top 20 at Watkins Glen last year, but three top-five finishes at the road course could trend back in his favor this year. 

CONS: Suárez could manage his way into the Round of 12 even without a win given his history at Atlanta and Watkins Glen but the No. 99 driver has struggled at Kansas, Talladega and the Roval, which makes it difficult to see Suárez reaching the semifinal round where he's scored some sneaky-good finishes at Las Vegas and Homestead. 

CHASE BRISCOE

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Bristol, Martinsville, Phoenix
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Watkins Glen, Homestead

PROS: Briscoe made it all the way to the Round of 8 in 2022, just his second Cup campaign. Had it not been for the clutch playoff run of Christopher Bell, Briscoe likely wins Martinsville and becomes a title favorite at Phoenix that year. After winning the Southern 500, Briscoe could go on a run similar to that of the NC State men's basketball team that the No. 14 driver alluded to during playoff media day.

CONS: Similar to Suárez, a potential Round of 12 berth would be hard to navigate for Briscoe if he gets there. But boy, the Cup field needs to look out if Briscoe once again can advance multiple rounds with some of his best tracks coming at the end of the calendar. 

WILD CARDS

A mix of winless and one-win drivers in this group, their respective playoff runs could all go to the extreme one way or another. Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, Alex Bowman and Joey Logano find themselves among this group after rocky patches during the 2024 season.

MARTIN TRUEX JR.

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Watkins Glen, Bristol, Homestead
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Talladega, Charlotte Roval

PROS: Truex is strong at most of the playoff tracks on the schedule. He finished sixth at Watkins Glen last season and survived a hard-fought battle at Bristol in the spring with Denny Hamlin amid a day that was about managing tires every lap. If Truex can survive a potentially wild Round of 16, the tracks ahead could set up a deep run for the veteran's final full-time Cup season. 

CONS: Not winning doesn't bode well for one's playoff hopes. Only Ryan Newman was able to reach the Championship 4 without winning a race all season in the elimination era (2014). Truex has completed all but three laps on drafting tracks this season, but Atlanta and Talladega still could put a big halt on Truex's title aspirations. 

TY GIBBS

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Watkins Glen, Bristol, Phoenix
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Kansas, Talladega, Martinsville

PROS: The Round of 16 boasts some high hopes for Gibbs who has scored top 10s in the most recent events at Atlanta, Watkins Glen and Bristol. Perhaps, Gibbs' most impressive run of the season was leading 137 laps in the spring at Bristol amid severe tire degradation that resulted in one of the most dramatic Cup events ever. If there's a driver to truly break through this postseason, look no further than the second-year driver. 

CONS: Gibbs' first playoff run is going to be filled with drama with Atlanta kicking it all off Sunday. One could say the No. 54 driver gets too risky this weekend and finds himself caught up in an incident that takes him away from stage points and a good result. Outside of that, Gibbs really doesn't have many disadvantages at the remaining playoff tracks outside of no top 10s at Martinsville. 

ALEX BOWMAN

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Bristol, Kansas, Charlotte Roval
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Watkins Glen, Homestead

PROS: Tied for fourth for most top-10 finishes this season, Bowman can be at his best anytime. He showed it by winning at Chicago and had a solid first half of the season. If he can find that first-half success again, the No. 48 team can find themselves with a chance to reach the Championship 4. 

CONS: This season has been way too hit-or-miss for Bowman, and he's limping into the playoffs with five consecutive finishes outside the top 15. He hasn't finished top 10 at Atlanta since the spring of 2022 and has never scored a top 10 at Watkins Glen. He'll need to turn both of those tracks in his favor if he wants to avoid being one-and-done this postseason. 

JOEY LOGANO

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Charlotte Roval, Las Vegas, Phoenix
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Bristol, Talladega

PROS: Mr. Opportunistic in the playoffs is how to describe Logano's elimination era history as he just finds a way to get the job done to be a two-time Cup champion. The Round of 16 will be a nerve-wracking one for Logano, who's known to be involved in drafting-track incidents but has also won at Atlanta (2023). It's an even year as well, which has benefitted Logano in the past as the champion in 2018 and 2022. 

CONS: If it wasn't for a historic day of overtimes at Nashville, Logano wouldn't have won to clinch a playoff berth and did not have the points to do so without a victory. An average finish of just 18.3 this season, 2024 will be Logano's worst season at Team Penske and can only be recovered if he can find the No. 22 driver of old within the next three races. 

IN BETWEENERS

The second-highest tier here belongs to a group of drivers that have championship aspirations but could also fall into a lull that results in a shocking first-round eliminaton. Brad Keselowski, William Byron, Chase Elliott and Christopher Bell find themselves here. 

BRAD KESELOWSKI

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Bristol, Talladega, Phoenix
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Watkins Glen, Charlotte Roval, Martinsville

PROS: While RFK Racing may be just a step behind in speed compared to last season, Keselowski is still more than capable of a deep playoff run like his teammate Chris Buescher in 2023. It also helps that Keselowski is one of the greatest superspeedway racers in NASCAR's history and Atlanta and Talladega could be the No. 6 driver's ticket to the Round of 8. 

CONS: Road courses are anything but Keselowski's bread and butter. His best finish on a road course this season was 13th at Sonoma and Keselowski doesn't have a top-10 result in the 2020s at either Watkins Glen or the Roval. 

WILLIAM BYRON

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Watkins Glen, Homestead
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Bristol, Kansas

PROS: Byron is a two-time winner at Atlanta's reconfiguration, won the Daytona 500 to start 2024 and has three consecutive top 10s at Talladega. While those results can shift race-to-race at superspeedways, no one can deny Byron has been clutch and it could be the main reason that sends Byron on another run to the Championship 4. Add his drafting-track success to being a winner at Watkins Glen, Homestead, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Martinsville, 2024 could easily be the year Byron wins his first Cup championship. 

CONS: Another so-so summer stretch for Byron could have people questioning whether he's a title contender. Hendrick Motorsports as a whole struggled at Gateway and Loudon, the best comparisons for Phoenix. 

CHASE ELLIOTT

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Watkins Glen, Bristol, Charlotte Roval
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Las Vegas, Homestead, Phoenix

PROS: Being the road-course connoisseur that he is, Watkins Glen and the Roval are going to be Elliott's best shots of winning in the playoffs. He's also a winner at Atlanta and Talladega but has varying results at each. The best thing Elliott has going for him in 2024 is consistency as he has completed all but one lap this season up until an early Stage 2 wreck at Daytona in August. 

CONS: Elliott's results at tracks in the Round of 8 and later just aren't strong enough to have good faith he'll win the title this year. Between Las Vegas, Homestead and Phoenix, he has just one top 10 in the Next Gen era combined at those tracks. Martinsville is his saving grace with four top 10s in the Next Gen. 

CHRISTOPHER BELL

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Watkins Glen, Homestead, Phoenix
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Talladega, Kansas 

PROS: There may be no more clutch postseason driver than Bell who has reached the Championship 4 the last two seasons. As the defending winner at Homestead and Phoenix, a third time could definitely be the charm for Bell to hoist his first title. 

CONS: Six DNFs via crash. Atlanta and Talladega take place in the first two rounds, which could be Bell's undoing if he isn't careful. He'll need to navigate Atlanta with as much awareness as possible and maybe forgo stage points Sunday if the racing is a little too hectic. If he can have clean results at Atlanta and Talladega, I'd pencil in Bell as my championship favorite.  

CHAMPIONSHIP FAVORITES

Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Regular Season Champion Tyler Reddick have separated themselves as the obvious title picks entering the playoffs. While no one is safe entering the Round of 16, these four have the clearest paths to the Bill France Cup, if all goes according to plan for them.

RYAN BLANEY

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Martinsville, Phoenix
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Bristol, Kansas, Charlotte Roval

PROS: Atlanta could provide the jolt for Blaney's postseason as he's finished top 10 in all but one race since the reconfiguration and was the runner-up in the three-wide photo finish with Suárez and Kyle Busch in the spring. If Blaney gets through the first two rounds cleanly, his best tracks are the final four on the calendar and while going back-to-back in championships would be unprecedented in the elimination era, Blaney could be the guy to do it. 

CONS: Surprisingly, 2024 has been Blaney's worst at Team Penske in terms of average finish (15.8). A misstep at either Atlanta or Watkins Glen could spell doom for Blaney as well as he enters the postseason with just a 13-point advantage to the Round of 12 elimination line and hasn't finished inside the top 15 on the Bristol concrete in the Next Gen car. 

DENNY HAMLIN

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Bristol, Kansas Martinsville
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Charlotte Roval

PROS: Bristol and Kansas taking place in separate rounds are all Hamlin has needed to see to give him a shot at a Championship 4 berth in recent memory. He's won back-to-back on the Bristol concrete and has top-five results in the last six Kansas races. 

CONS: Hamlin has gone on record to say he's "cursed." He's missed out on the Championship 4 so far in the Next Gen era and an L2-level penalty before Daytona cost him 10 playoff points that now puts him just 10 points above the elimination line entering a lot of unknowns in the opening round. 

KYLE LARSON

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Bristol, Las Vegas, Kansas
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Talladega, Charlotte Roval

PROS: Take away the drafting tracks and Larson has won at every circuit on the playoff calendar. He enters the postseason as the most recent winner at Kansas and Las Vegas. It will just be a test of whether Larson can escape calamity on Sunday and at Talladega that will determine a virtual cake walk into the Championship 4. 

CONS: Superspeedways. They just haven't played into Larson's hand in his career. He's DNF'd in all but one race at Atlanta since the reconfiguration and owns just one top-five result at Talladega in 19 starts. 

TYLER REDDICK

BEST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Watkins Glen, Charlotte Roval, Homestead
WORST PLAYOFF TRACKS: Atlanta, Bristol, Martinsville

PROS: Any mistakes from 2023 were cleaned up this year by Reddick, culminating in a Regular Season Championship for the fifth-year veteran. Having one of the fastest cars in the field on a weekly basis this season should put Reddick as the championship favorite for most people. 

CONS: The first round. Don't look now but that 23-point buffer looks a lot slimmer for someone like Reddick given his history at Atlanta and Bristol. He'll be a favorite to win at Watkins Glen, but Reddick has finished 27th or worst in four of the five Atlanta races on the reconfiguration and owns just one top-10 finish on the Bristol concrete in six starts.