Talladega preview: Best, worst outlooks for Round of 12’s superspeedway

In most cases, all bets go out the window when it comes to superspeedway racing. Sunday’s Round of 12 playoff event at Talladega Superspeedway (2 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) will be no different. Kurt Busch already secured his spot in the Round of 8, shaking up the standings and putting pressure on other drivers to point their way in. Therefore, heading into this weekend, NASCAR.com ranks which remaining playoff drivers have the best and worst outlooks based on career performances and current trends.

BEST: Denny Hamlin

Average finish at Talladega: 17.2 (ranks 8th among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Talladega: 4th (win in 2014)

Comment: Hamlin has flexed his superspeedway savvy in recent years, performing as consistently as anyone at Talladega and Daytona International Speedway. Three of his last four outings at Talladega have resulted in top-five finishes, and the No. 11 team has flashed great speed all year. This week, he gets a hard-earned boost, starting on the pole — and an even more impressive stat, he has only crashed out of one race here since a 2015 early exit.

BEST: Aric Almirola

Average finish at Talladega: 14.8 (ranks first among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Talladega: 3rd (win in 2018)

Comment: Almirola quietly has been the class of the field at Talladega over the last half decade. He has finished inside the top 10 in eight consecutive races at the track and tallied five top-five results in that span — an astounding feat of consistency. Heading into this weekend 27 points below the Round of 8 cutline, Almirola and Co. have the track record to be in contention for the win — potentially shaking up the playoff standings even more heading into this round's finale at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.

BEST: Kevin Harvick

Average finish at Talladega: 15.9 (ranks 3rd among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Talladega: 10th (win in 2010)

Comment: Despite only one win at Talladega in 39 Cup Series starts, Harvick still has been impressive at the track. Throughout his career, he has crashed out of only four races and has a 15.9 average finish, despite a 20.1 average start. On top of that, Harvick's current point advantage is so big he could miss a race or have a mishap early and likely still be above the cutline. Expect Harvick's dominant season to continue, and a second career victory here would not be a surprise.

WORST: Austin Dillon

Average finish at Talladega: 20.8 (ranks 10th among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Talladega: 39th

Comment: Dillon has been hit-or-miss at Talladega, and after starting the 2020 Cup Series Playoffs with a bang, his team ran into bad luck at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, leaving him in an ominous position 32 points below the cutline. He has three top-10 finishes here in 14 starts and has crashed out of the race five times. With a steep uphill climb from the bottom of the table and the unpredictable Charlotte Roval lurking next week, the No. 3 team's best chance at salvaging its championship run is a win — much easier said than done.

WORST: Alex Bowman

Average finish at Talladega: 24.3 (ranks last — 12th — among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Talladega: 7th

Comment: Bowman is one of two remaining playoff drivers without a superspeedway win in his career. Even more concerning may be his historic trend of consistent inconsistency over the last six races at Talladega — alternating impressive top-10 results with finishes outside the top 30. After a seventh-place finish in the spring race, he will need to buck this trend to put himself in a better position to advance to the Round of 8 for the first time in his career.

WORST: Martin Truex Jr.

Average finish at Talladega: 21.5 (ranks 11th among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Talladega: 23rd

Comment: The struggles for Truex at Talladega have been longstanding, resulting in a streak of eight consecutive races finishing 20th or worse. Despite two starts on the pole since, you have to look back to 2015 to find his last top-10 result at the track — a shocking stat for such a dominant driver. Like Bowman, he lacks a superspeedway victory in his career. Sitting just 15 points in the green with one Round of 8 spot already reserved and two races to go, Truex may need to put together one of his best performances here in years.