Texas preview: Best, worst outlooks for middle race in Round of 8

Joey Logano secured one of the four coveted spots to race for a championship at Phoenix Raceway in November with his win at Kansas Speedway. As the margin for error gets slimmer each week, NASCAR.com analyzes which remaining contenders have the best and worst outlooks heading to Texas Motor Speedway, based on track history and current trends.

BEST: Kevin Harvick

Average finish at Texas: 10.2 (first among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Texas: 5th (won in 2019, 2018 and 2017)

Comment: Can anyone stop Harvick’s streak? "Happy" comes into this weekend with three straight playoff wins at Texas and the usual focused mindset after a runner-up finish last week. Sitting atop the points standings and taking the green flag from the pole position unsurprisingly makes the No. 4 team the one to beat — again.

BEST: Chase Elliott

Average finish at Texas: 11.1 (second among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Texas: 12th

Comment: Elliott has finished the last three races at Texas outside of the top 10, but he has scored crucial stage points in eight of the 14 stages there. We have seen electric speed from the No. 9 team nearly all year, and without a communications mishap, Elliott may have been in better standing before this week’s race. Expect the crew to clean up the mistakes and to see Elliott buck his recent Texas trend with a solid finish, if not his first win at the track.

BEST: Kurt Busch

Average finish at Texas: 14.1 (sixth among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Texas: 8th (won in 2009)

Comment: This may be the biggest wild card left in the playoffs. Busch comes into this week in essentially a must-win situation. The good news is Texas has been one of his better tracks in recent memory, and without a points concern, he can lay it all on the line. With seven straight top 10s here and a winning mindset from 2009, the elder Busch brother might be primed to spoil the early Championship 4 predictions.

WORST: Denny Hamlin

Average finish at Texas: 14.0 (fourth among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Texas: 20th (won in 2019, twice in 2010)

Comment: Hamlin has cooled off dramatically and seen his points cushion dwindled to just 20 above the cutline. He has also been hit or miss at Texas recently. His last six races here resulted in a pair of top fives — including a win — but four finishes of 20th or worse with a DNF mixed in. His winning pedigree elevates him above most of the others, but the recent cold streak has the prospect of Hamlin being eliminated — something unheard of just a month ago — a distinct possibility.

WORST: Brad Keselowski

Average finish at Texas: 17.3 (seventh among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Texas: 9th

Comment: Three results of 33rd or worse — two DNFs — in the last five races at Texas leave cause for genuine concern. Keselowski is not in a must-win situation but "survive and advance" may come into play here. After a ninth-place finish in the spring race, he will hope to show similar speed this time around or find himself on the outside looking in heading into next week’s Round of 8 finale.

WORST: Alex Bowman

Average finish at Texas: 25.6 (last among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Texas: 30th

Comment: Bowman has been a bright spot for the Hendrick Motorsports stable throughout the playoffs, but without multiple wins, his chances at a championship are stymied by the lack of points to keep pace with the top contenders. Sitting 27 points below the cutline heading to Texas, where he has nine finishes of 13th or worse in his 10 career starts, he remains one of the heavy underdogs.