The desert is calling — why each Round of 12 driver could make it to Phoenix

The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs continue this Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway, site of the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, USA, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

Sunday's race marks the opening of the Round of 12, and here's why each of the remaining contenders could take it all the way and compete for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship in November at Phoenix, courtesy of data from Racing Insights.

12. Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota

Points: 3,000
Avg. Round of 16 finish: 17.7
Analysis: 

• Finished fourth in three of the last four races on 1.5-mile tracks, suffering a flat tire in the fourth -- while running in the top five.

• Won at Talladega Superspeedway in 2021 and runs great on superspeedway-style drafting tracks.

11. Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford

Points: 3,008
Avg. Round of 16 finish: 14.3
Analysis:

• Finished in the top 10 in eight of the last nine Texas races, including the last five.

• Has previously won at Talladega and the Roval, two Round of 12 tracks.

• Won at Charlotte this year on the 1.5-mile layout, which three of the next six races feature.

10. Brad Keselowski, No. 6 Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford

Points: 3,011
Avg. Round of 16 finish: 7.7
Analysis:

• One of two playoff drivers without an issue in the 2023 Cup Series Playoffs so far.

• On a season-best, four-race top-10 streak.

• Six-time winner at Talladega Superspeedway.

9. Ross Chastain, No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Points: 3,011
Avg. Round of 16 finish: 13.7
Analysis:

• Leads all drivers in points earned on 1.5-mile tracks in the Next Gen car -- three of the next six races are on such tracks.

• Won at Talladega last year and has a road-course win at COTA.

• Something, something ...  Ross Chastain ... Martinsville ... ringing a bell?

8. Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota

Points: 3,014
Avg. Round of 16 finish: 6.0
Analysis:

• Won at Texas last year -- as a non-playoff driver.

• Runs great at tracks with a dominant high line, like Homestead-Miami Speedway.

• Three-time road course winner.

7. Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Points: 3,016
Avg. Round of 16 finish: 11.3
Analysis:

• He’s fast -- Bell won the pole for every playoff race so far and led 242 laps in those races (second most).

• Won the Roval last year for his second road-course win.

• Won at Martinsville last year to clinch Championship 4 berth, his second straight walk-off win.

6. Kyle Busch, No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Toyota

Points: 3,019
Avg. Round of 16 finish: 12.7
Analysis:

• Four-time Texas winner, with his current car (No. 8) being the defending Texas winner.

• Won the most recent race at Talladega.

5. Chris Buescher, No. 6 Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford

Points: 3,021
Avg. Round of 16 finish: 11.3
Analysis:

• Ranks in the top eight in points earned this year.

• Finished in the top seven in six of the last eight races, including three wins.

4. Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Points: 3,023
Avg. Round of 16 finish: 2.3
Analysis:

• Has won at five of the next six tracks during his 101 starts with Hendrick. Notably, he's also won at Phoenix with the team.

• Added six playoff points in Round of 16 to bring his total to 23 -- fourth most of all drivers.

3. Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Points: 3,032
Avg. Round of 16 finish: 9.3
Analysis:

• Playoff points total (32) rank third most.

• He’s fast -- led in each of the last nine races, winning two of them and finishing second in three of them.

• Fourteen wins on the tracks before Phoenix are the most of all active drivers, playoffs or not.

2. Martin Truex Jr., No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Points: 3,036
Avg. Round of 16 finish: 24.3
Analysis:

• Playoff points total (36) tied for the most with William Byron.

• Twelve-time winner on 1.5-mile tracks

• Five-time road-course winner, including Sonoma this year.

1. William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Points: 3,036
Avg. Round of 16 finish: 9.3
Analysis:

• Playoff points total (36) tied for the most with Martin Truex Jr.

• Has previously won on every track in the Round of 8.

• Won the most recent road course race at Watkins Glen and leads all 2023 playoff drivers in laps led on the Roval.

• Pit crew ranks the best based on average four-tire pit stop times in 2023.