Top 10 NASCAR Cup Series breakout candidates for 2024

The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series lineup is shaping up to be a truly stacked field chock-full of contenders galore. 

With parity once again in full focus, here are 10 potential drivers who could take things to a new level in 2024 and stand out among the fray.

Josh Berry, No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

2023 key stats: 10 Cup Series starts, 1 top five, 3 top 10s, 13 laps led

2023 standings finish: N/A

Career wins: 0

2024 title odds: 50-1

Comment: Given the struggles SHR at large has gone through over the past few years, the 33-year-old Berry is positioned quite well in his official "rookie" season — with lower than normal expectations that typically come with driving for a major team but with the experience and talent to significantly exceed them. He hops in the only SHR entry that made the playoffs in '23, and it's entirely possible he becomes the championship organization's best shot to make it back there in '24, with perhaps a trip to Victory Lane or two along the way. Also worth mentioning: He might have literally the best crew chief in the garage on top of his pit box in Rodney Childers.

Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

2023 key stats: 4 top fives, 10 top 10s, 112 laps led

2023 standings finish: 18th

Career wins: 0

2024 title odds: 22-1

Comment: Point blank — 2024 will be a disappointment of a season if Gibbs doesn't find his way into Victory Lane at least once. Every piece is here for the 21-year-old phenom to firmly establish his presence at the Cup level this year, now with 50-plus starts under his belt, in top-tier equipment and an exceptional cast of some of the smartest and most experienced characters in the sport surrounding him. JGR has a pedigree dripping with championship-capable talent and Gibbs, along with the driver with the longest-running Championship 4 streak in teammate Christopher Bell, will look to carry that banner for potentially the next two decades. Be on the lookout for big things from Gibbs this season, particularly on road courses.

MORE: Ty Gibbs 2023 season in review

Todd Gilliland, No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford

2023 key stats: 4 top 10s, 15 top 20s, 22.0 avg. finish

2023 standings finish: 28th

Career wins: 0

2024 title odds: 500-1

Comment: Look, I'm not saying Gilliland is going to break out in 2024 with a boatload of wins and a Championship 4 appearance (although, hey, never say never, right?), but the progression and trajectory of both FRM and Gilliland are steadily and consistently trending upward. Despite entering the season amid rocky, uncertain waters that almost didn't have him running a full season, Gilliland put his head down, got to work and turned in a respectable campaign with an average finish just shy of matching series veteran and multi-time Cup winner Austin Dillon (21.8). He seems to have earned respect of his competitors in the garage, and we've seen teammate Michael McDowell break through for two marquee wins the past three years. Why not Gilliland, too?

John Hunter Nemechek, No. 42 Legacy Motor Club Toyota

2023 key stats: 7 wins, 17 top fives, 24 top 10s, 1,083 laps led (NXS); 1 Cup start (32nd)

2023 standings finish: N/A

Career wins: 0

2024 title odds: 80-1

Comment: With a full campaign under his belt in 2020, Nemechek is obviously no stranger to the Cup Series — but this might be when we finally see what he's capable of in NASCAR's top division. After just three top 10s that season, JHN spent the past few years racking up 15 wins across the Xfinity and Craftsman Truck Series — but somehow came away titleless. He's going to be hungrier than ever entering this year — and likely with somewhat of a chip on his shoulder — in the best Cup equipment he's seen yet. Pretty solid recipe for success.

Chase Briscoe, No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

2023 key stats: 4 top fives, 8 top 10s, 184 laps led

2023 standings finish: 30th

Career wins: 1

2024 title odds: 60-1

Comment: After, you know, breaking out for his first Cup win — at Phoenix, of all places — in 2022 and landing ninth in the standings, expectations were high for Briscoe to perhaps take things a step further in '23. There were some signs early on he could (three straight top fives from Bristol dirt to Talladega), but a major, major technical penalty shortly thereafter sunk any hopes he had of making the playoffs on points. Not a single SHR car won in 2023, so a path via victory was off the table as well. But let's be clear — this is still the same (if not even more seasoned) Chase Briscoe that won a ridiculous nine NXS races in 2020 and was hand-picked by NASCAR Hall of Famer Tony Stewart to pilot "his" car, the No. 14. Briscoe has strongly indicated of late that he wants to be The Guy at SHR now that Kevin Harvick has retired, and there's no reason he can't be.

Austin Cindric, No. 2 Team Penske Ford

2023 key stats: 1 top five, 5 top 10s, 33 laps led

2023 standings finish: 24th

Career wins: 1

2024 title odds: 200-1

Comment: Cindric burst onto the scene in his rookie season in 2022 in literally the biggest way possible — by winning the Daytona 500. Team Penske also won the title that year with driver Joey Logano, and expectations were high across the board in 2023. Though the team did repeat (with Ryan Blaney taking the title), Logano and Cindric took major steps back, with the latter seeing all of his stats take a dive as he dipped to a 24th-place standings finish. Especially with his road-course acumen, I am in no way writing off a proven winner in all three series as he enters his age 25 season in top-tier equipment, driving for Roger Penske of all people. In fact, I'm expecting quite a rebound this year and then some.

Daniel Suárez, No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

2023 key stats: 3 top fives, 10 top 10s, 1 pole, 48 laps led

2023 standings finish: 19th

Career wins: 1

2024 title odds: 50-1

Comment: After a one-win, mini-breakout in 2022, Suárez was positioned well to explode in a big way in 2023, with multiple wins seemingly on the table. It didn't happen. No. 99 missed the playoffs outright, with his best showing coming in a runner-up finish as he hunted for a postseason spot at Atlanta over the summer. Now looking at his eighth full Cup season and firmly in full veteran mode, Suárez is starting to enter "now or never" territory with Trackhouse continuing to build and bolster its driver pipeline. We know the talent and drive are here, and it's a sure thing that getting this car going was a major focus of the team over the offseason. It feels like a safe bet Suárez does indeed finally break out in a significant way this season, and it's not out of the question he could become the team's second driver to make the Championship 4 if all the pieces fall into place the way they're capable of.

MORE: Daniel Suárez 2023 season in review

Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota

2023 key stats: 1 top five, 7 top 10s, 24 laps led

2023 standings finish: 27th

Career wins: 3

2024 title odds: 150-1

Comment: Also entering his eighth season and with an equally winding and interesting career as Suárez, we've seen and know very well what Jones is capable of, it's just all the right things clicking at the right time in the right places with the right people. That's the nature of this sport and why the top-to-bottom team element is so crucial, but it absolutely looks like Jones has a shot to finally have all of that with a freshly revamped LMC and reunion with his longtime manufacturer in Toyota. You don't become a two-time Southern 500 winner by accident, and it's possible we see plenty of Jones at the front of the field in 2024, which will be fulfilling to watch after all these years.

Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota

2023 key stats: 5 top fives, 10 top 10s, 285 laps led

2023 standings finish: 10th

Career wins: 2

2024 title odds: 40-1

Comment: While Wallace failed to win a race in 2023 like he did in '22, just about every other measure saw improvements last season, including his first playoff appearance that impressively resulted in a top-10 points finish. Wallace's progression has been steady and perhaps the most consistent of anyone in the past six years of his full-time career, and there's little reason to think that trend doesn't continue in '24. If it does, we could be looking at multiple wins and a deep playoff run here.

MORE: Bubba Wallace 2023 season in review

Brad Keselowski, No. 6 Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford

2023 key stats: 7 top fives, 16 top 10s, 341 laps led

2023 standings finish: 8th

Career wins: 35

2024 title odds: 14-1

Comment: Wait, a 35-time Cup Series winner with a title and multiple Championship 4 appearances as ... a breakout candidate? Yes. Keselowski has spent the past two seasons, admirably, in his new venture as a driver/owner as he waded through middling results, a major car setup penalty and just generally rekindling the car performance he was used to driving for Roger Penske. It appears he's there. Despite Penske taking home the championship, RFK was arguably the fastest Ford team of 2023 and is poised to continue that development into 2024 with the 2012 champ at the forefront. With no wins since April 2021, Keselowski should buck that trend in a big way this season as the potential is there for his reemergence as a title contender and, at the very least, a Cup Series winner.

MORE: Brad Keselowski 2023 season in review