Surprise, surprise: Top 10 underdog Cup Series wins of 2023

Kyle Busch, underdog? You bet!

Believe it or not, the two-time champ's win at Auto Club Speedway in the season's second race came as a surprise for several reasons. As such, his pre-race ranking in the Racing Insights simulated projections — but eventual win — slots him in as one of the most unexpected winners of 2023.

Scroll through to see the top 10 "underdog" wins of the year based on where their projected finish stood before landing in Victory Lane.

Race: 4EVER 400 Presented by Mobil 1 at Homestead-Miami Speedway

Winner: Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Starting position: 13th

Projected finish: 7th

How it happened: The 2023 Championship 4 contender punched his ticket to the title round down south. Kyle Larson dominated the first two stages of the race, but late in the second stage Ryan Blaney passed him to win the stage after the No. 5's tires wore out. This set up a Larson/Blaney battle in the final stage, leading to Larson hitting the barrels coming to pit road under green and ending his race. Bell then worked his way to the lead but dropped to third on the final pit stop. He feverishly drove his way back to the lead within the final 15 laps to win the race and grab a title shot.

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Race: Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway

Winner: Joey Logano

Starting position: 1st

Projected finish: 8th

How it happened: The two-time champ Logano won the pole as Team Penske started 1-2-3 and Ford swept the first eight starting positions. No. 22 was the dominant car all day, leading 140 of 260 laps.  Despite 17 cars being involved in an accident — including two "Big Ones" that started when the leader had issues — the final 44 laps went green and set up great racing with Logano passing former teammate Brad Keselowski for the win. 

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Race: Verizon 200 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Winner: Michael McDowell

Starting position: 4th

Projected finish: 8th

How it happened: The one and only caution came on Lap 3 after the No. 31 of Justin Haley hit the tire barrier exiting Turn 5. The race then went green for the next hour and 57 minutes, allowing McDowell and Daniel Suárez to emerge as the top contenders. On the final green flag stop, Suárez's No. 99 car had a 24-second pit stop after the front left tire fell on the air hose and the crew had to jack to car back up to clear it. McDowell took the lead following the final green-flag pit cycle and held off Chase Elliiott for the final 30 laps to win.

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Race: GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway

Winner: Kyle Busch, No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

Starting position: 17th

Projected finish: 9th

How it happened: No. 8 took the lead on the final lap from former Toyota teammate Bubba Wallace after he was spun by Ryan Blaney while trying to block. The first two stages were run mostly incident-free, before the final stage saw four different multiple-car incidents, including the "Big One" on Lap 190 during the first overtime attempt.

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Race: Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway

Winner: Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Starting position: 4th

Projected finish: 13th

How it happened: Despite Bell's stature as a legendary dirt racer, this one still came as a surprise. No. 20 took the checkered after pitting for the final time in Stage 1 then staying out and taking the lead at the Stage 2 break and leading the final 100 laps en route to victory.

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Race: Pala Casino 400 at Auto Club Speedway

Winner: Kyle Busch, No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

Starting position: 21st

Projected finish: 13th

How it happened: Busch didn't take long to win in his new digs, claiming victory in just the second race of the year. The two-time champ rebounded from a Lap 43 speeding penalty to get his first win with RCR and set the record for most consecutive years with a win at 20.

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Race: FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway

Winner: Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford

Starting position: 4th

Projected finish: 13th

How it happened: It was an unusual weekend all-around, as Christopher Bell won the pole with the fastest qualifying speed at Michigan since 2018 and multiple cars spun and hit the wall during the race, including Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, William Byron and Bell, himself ... from the lead. Rain then came out and stopped the race on Lap 74, postponing it until Monday. Martin Truex Jr. led following the resumption of the race and battled with Bubba Wallace for the lead. Buescher was among a group that stayed out on Lap 122 under caution, taking the lead on the Lap 126 restart, but relinquishing it on Lap 156 to pit. He later cycled back into the lead and then battled Martin Truex Jr. for the final 23 laps to win his second consecutive race of the season.

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Race: Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway

Winner: Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford

Starting position: 26th

Projected finish: 16th

How it happened: Pit strategy played a major role in a race that had no cautions other than stage breaks until the final eight laps. Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace dominated the first two stages of the race but Reddick was eliminated from contention after a pit-road commitment violation during green flag stops. Both RFK Racing cars then ran up front from midway through the race until the end. Brad Keselowski was leading but lost it to Buescher after locking brakes coming into his pit box on a green flag stop. Buescher then held the lead for the remainder of the race for his first win of 2023. 

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Race: Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway

Winner: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet

Starting position: 31st

Projected finish: 30th

How it happened:  No stranger to winning at Daytona, this one still was unexpected for Stenhouse Jr. No. 47 punched his ticket to the playoffs early when the caution came out in OT after a nine-car accident sparked while he was in the lead on the final lap —and nearly out of fuel when the race ended. 

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Race: Chicago Street Race at Chicago Street Course

Winner: Shane Van Gisbergen, No. 91 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Starting position: 3rd

Projected finish: 36th

How it happened: Toyotas led 46 of the first 47 laps on a wet afternoon in the Windy City, with NASCAR determining during a caution period for weather that the race would need to be shortened from 100 laps to 75 due to the sunset.  This flipped the field a bit, allowing cars that had pitted prior to the caution to jump the leaders who pitted under caution. Justin Haley inherited the lead and held it for the next 22 laps through three restarts.  During a Lap 71 restart, Gisbergen, on significantly newer tires, passed Haley for the lead. He held it through the final overtime restart to win the inaugural race — in his first ever NASCAR start. 

READ MORE: Full race recap