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Two drivers, one spot: Who has the advantage — Ryan Blaney or Martin Truex Jr.?
By Pat DeCola | Sunday, August 14, 2022
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After Kevin Harvick's win at Michigan International Speedway from below the playoff cutline left one remaining spot to be clinched on points -- for now -- it sent the fates of winless drivers Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. shooting in opposite directions. Second in points to only four-time 2022 winner Chase Elliott, Blaney holds a provisional lock on the final spot -- with Truex 19 points behind him for fourth overall ... and currently out of the playoff field.
The final three regular-season races that lie ahead offer a multitude of opportunities for both championship contenders to decide who gets in and who goes home. Let's dig in.
The final three regular-season races that lie ahead offer a multitude of opportunities for both championship contenders to decide who gets in and who goes home. Let's dig in.
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First up is Sunday's race at Richmond Raceway (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), which honestly might turn things upside down once again. Truex is the defending winner of the race (though it was run in early September last year during the playoffs) and on top of that, his three total wins at the track have all come in the last six races there. The 2017 champ also hasn't finished outside the top five in that stretch.
If Truex is able to cash in on his past Richmond success once more, there's a very real scenario that Blaney could walk out of the Virginia track second in points — and out of the playoffs.
If Truex is able to cash in on his past Richmond success once more, there's a very real scenario that Blaney could walk out of the Virginia track second in points — and out of the playoffs.
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There's a reason the playoff field isn't official until after Race 26, though — anything can happen.
While he was already locked in with wins earlier in the season at Atlanta and Michigan, Blaney was last year's regular-season finale winner at Daytona International Speedway. Should he be in a must-win situation on the final day to make the playoffs, he'll at least have the confidence to know he's been among the top superspeedway drivers in the sport the past few years and holds the trophy from this event a year ago.
While he was already locked in with wins earlier in the season at Atlanta and Michigan, Blaney was last year's regular-season finale winner at Daytona International Speedway. Should he be in a must-win situation on the final day to make the playoffs, he'll at least have the confidence to know he's been among the top superspeedway drivers in the sport the past few years and holds the trophy from this event a year ago.
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Comparing the two drivers to find an edge in total over the next three races, it'd be hard not to give at least a slight nod to Truex here, both from a statistical point of view and just overall experience. Though he's never won at Daytona, he's had a few near-misses there in recent memory with runner-ups in 2016 and 2018, as well as four total wins split between Richmond and Watkins Glen International.
He also opened the week at 6-1 odds to win Richmond — best in the series.
He also opened the week at 6-1 odds to win Richmond — best in the series.
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The 28-year-old Blaney obviously hasn't had as long of a career yet to pad his resume as well as the 42-year-old Joe Gibbs Racing driver, and thus has just one win — the aforementioned Daytona triumph — at the remaining regular-season tracks. In fact, he'd never even finished in the top 10 at Richmond until his 11th start in this race last year and hadn't led a lap there until this spring. Advantage: Truex.
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Speaking of advantages for Truex, that'll likely be most evident on the track this weekend at the 0.75-mile Richmond. One of the bigger knocks on Truex throughout his career was an inability to win on short tracks — a trend he's bucked in recent years, with now six total under his belt. Again, Blaney has had less overall career to match those numbers, but he still has yet to win one for himself in 37 total starts. Short tracks technically rank as his worst type of tracks, too, with a 16.4 average finish on them being the lowest.
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For a bit there, Truex appeared to be the 1B to Chase Elliott's 1A on road courses, going tit for tat with the 2020 champion over the past several years and emerging with a total of four road-course wins, including a 2017 triumph at The Glen. Toyota and JGR have self-admittedly been way off on road courses this year, however, and with an average finish of 16.75 on the four we've run in 2022, it's by far no guarantee that The Glen marks any sort of slam dunk for Truex to claim his spot.
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In fact, there's an argument to be made that Blaney could have a better shot to clinch at The Glen than Truex, who mentioned earlier this year that Toyota may not have their notebook for road courses in proper order until next season. That would certainly open the door for Blaney to perhaps capitalize.
Though he has only a marginally better average finish (12.25) through the first four road races this year, the Team Penske driver has definitely looked like more of a contender on them in 2022, with that average only being sunk by late-race mishaps at Indy where he placed 26th — despite leading 17 laps. He only has one road win to his credit (the inaugural Charlotte Roval in 2018), but it kind of feels more likely Blaney picks up his second than Truex gets his fifth.
Though he has only a marginally better average finish (12.25) through the first four road races this year, the Team Penske driver has definitely looked like more of a contender on them in 2022, with that average only being sunk by late-race mishaps at Indy where he placed 26th — despite leading 17 laps. He only has one road win to his credit (the inaugural Charlotte Roval in 2018), but it kind of feels more likely Blaney picks up his second than Truex gets his fifth.
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The one thing Truex has to dread the most — being in a must-win position at Daytona. Blaney owns three total superspeedway wins across just three starts (two of which came at Talladega, pictured).
After getting the short-track monkey off his back, the one remaining hurdle for Truex remains superspeedways. Though he's got four total wins at them in his long-gone Xfinity days, Truex is a combined 0-for-69 at Daytona and Talladega across nearly two decades of Cup racing. Never say never, of course, but it'd be hard to expect lucky No. 70 to hit when the pressure's at its highest on NASCAR's most unpredictable track. Blaney has a huge advantage here.
After getting the short-track monkey off his back, the one remaining hurdle for Truex remains superspeedways. Though he's got four total wins at them in his long-gone Xfinity days, Truex is a combined 0-for-69 at Daytona and Talladega across nearly two decades of Cup racing. Never say never, of course, but it'd be hard to expect lucky No. 70 to hit when the pressure's at its highest on NASCAR's most unpredictable track. Blaney has a huge advantage here.
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Digging into the stats a little more, here are a few more nuggets to show just how much of a toss-up this could be.
— Blaney has scored just 20 more stage points this season than Truex.
— Truex, however, has a series-high seven stage wins this season, with Blaney not far off with five of his own.
— Both Blaney and Truex’s average finish this season is 13.3.
— Their average running position is nearly identical as well, with Blaney’s sitting at 11.16 and Truex’s at 11.31.
— Blaney has scored just 20 more stage points this season than Truex.
— Truex, however, has a series-high seven stage wins this season, with Blaney not far off with five of his own.
— Both Blaney and Truex’s average finish this season is 13.3.
— Their average running position is nearly identical as well, with Blaney’s sitting at 11.16 and Truex’s at 11.31.
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Of course, there's still an outside chance that neither makes it, if there's a 16th winner and one of them isn't it.
Until Sunday, all five of the cars pictured above were angling to claim their stake in the postseason picture and are viable winners before the field is set. Harvick obviously is in after his Michigan win and you now know the story on Blaney, but guess what?
All three of the other drivers pictured (Aric Almirola, Erik Jones and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.) have prior wins.
At Daytona.
In the summer.
Until Sunday, all five of the cars pictured above were angling to claim their stake in the postseason picture and are viable winners before the field is set. Harvick obviously is in after his Michigan win and you now know the story on Blaney, but guess what?
All three of the other drivers pictured (Aric Almirola, Erik Jones and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.) have prior wins.
At Daytona.
In the summer.
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