What history tells us about early 2023 Cup Series title contenders

Martinsville Speedway marked the ninth race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season. That means 25% of the entire schedule is over -- and more than one-third of the 26-race regular season is completed.

In each of the last seven years, the eventual champion was inside the top six in points by the ninth race of the season. So who finds themselves there this year? And will the trend continue -- or will there be a disruptor come November?

1. Christopher Bell

Bell is already off to a career year after just nine races. The winner at Bristol Dirt, Bell has secured wins in each of the past three seasons and is averaging an 11.2 finish, the best of his career by over two full positions. The No. 20 Toyota powered to the Championship 4 via two critical playoff wins in 2022, so a title surely seems plausible if he and his Joe Gibbs Racing group maintain their pace.

2. Ross Chastain

Another Championship 4 contender from 2022 is Chastain, who finds himself well toward the top of the Cup Series leaderboard. Despite an outstanding breakout season a year ago, Chastain's 12.1 average finish is en route to be the best of his career. The No. 1 Trackhouse Racing team hasn't won since Talladega a full season ago, but the watermelon farmer usually finds a way to be in frame when it counts.

3. Kevin Harvick

"The Closer" may have a shot at closing his career in the most fitting fashion possible: by holding the Bill France Cup in November. Harvick nearly found Victory Lane at Phoenix Raceway in March (you know, the site of the championship race this fall) and was in contention to win at Martinsville -- the site of the penultimate race of the year. Watch out for the driver of the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford, who has nothing to lose in his final of 23 Cup seasons.

4. Kyle Larson

The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion was sixth in points after race No. 9 two years ago, then vaulted to a career-best 10 wins, All-Star Race victory and eventual title. This year, he's got two wins -- one more than he had by now during that 2021 run -- and four top fives to boot. Another title may be in his sight.

5. Martin Truex Jr.

Yes, Truex's 53-race winless streak is glaring in a piece like this. But the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team has shown plenty of speed early in 2023. Truex's 56 laps led at Richmond mark his season-high in a race. The 2017 champ was second in points after the ninth race that year. Could this be the season he claims a second title?

6. Tyler Reddick

Hello, outlier. A winner this year at Circuit of The Americas, Reddick is the only competitor of this group yet to make the Championship 4. But the 23XI Racing driver has had one heck of a 45-race stretch, claiming his first four career Cup wins since the Next Gen era began in February 2022. His four top fives are tied with Larson for second-most in the series through nine races, only behind Bell's five. Is this the first sign we get of Reddick thrusting himself into the championship conversation? Maybe -- especially with plenty more road racing ahead.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

Another note of interest: The current elimination-style playoff system was introduced in 2014. The only two years the eventual champion did not sit inside the top six in points after nine races: Kevin Harvick (20th with two wins after nine races in 2014) and Kyle Busch in 2015, who was recovering from a broken left foot and a compound fracture in his lower right leg.

Who deserves title consideration from outside the top six, like Harvick in 2014? Hard to look much further than Hendrick Motorsports teammates Alex Bowman and William Byron.

The duo was docked 60 points, respectively, after NASCAR handed down penalties following the April 2 event at Richmond. Without those penalties, the 11th-place Bowman would be sitting tied for second with Chastain, and 15th-place Byron -- who already has two wins this season, like Harvick in 2014 -- would jump to sixth place.

THE COMEBACK KID?

That brings us to this year's possible injury exception. Chase Elliott missed six NASCAR Cup Series races this year after suffering a broken left leg in a snowboarding crash in March before returning to action at Martinsville. Elliott's three finishes so far are a bit sporadic -- 38th (DNF) in the Daytona 500, second in Fontana and 10th in his Martinsville return. He sits 32nd in points right now, but wins would propel the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team into the postseason. If any driver can replicate Kyle Busch's remarkable run to a title, it's Elliott -- the 2020 champion who has won at least twice a year for each of the past five seasons.