Why each Championship 4 driver might win title — and why they might not

NASCAR.com's Pat DeCola makes the case for why each Championship 4 contender for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship will win the Bill France Cup -- and why they might not -- along with key stats and moments from 2024.

William Byron

No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Key stats: Three wins, 12 top fives, 20 top 10s, one pole, 338 laps led, 13.2 average finish

Championship 4 history: Second appearance, best finish of third.

Crew chief: Rudy Fugle (fourth season with Byron in Cup; formerly paired together in Truck Series)

Pit crew: Ranked second in Racing Insights' pit road rank (combining driver and pit crew stats on pit road) and second in average four-tire stop time.

Defining 2024 moment: Winning the season-opening Daytona 500, showcasing his ability to perform on NASCAR's biggest stage. 

William Byron

No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Why he could win: "Help us William Byron, you're our only hope."

That's surely the sentiment in the Hendrick Motorsports camp at the moment after nearly putting four drivers in the Round of 8 boiled down to one driver in the Championship 4.

Byron is talented and driven enough to win the championship on his own -- this is his second straight Championship 4 appearance, after all -- but he now gets the benefit of the entire Hendrick machine working to find a way to ensure the No. 24 car wins its first Cup Series championship since a certain Hall of Famer racked up a whopping four of them in it. He and crew chief Rudy Fugle work extremely well together and they're salivating at having another opportunity to cross this off their list.

A gutsy, grind-it-out performance at Martinsivlle propelled him into title contention for the second year in a row, and you'd better believe that No. 24 group is hungry to get the job done this weekend, lack of preparation-time or not.

Having a whole campus dedicated to making sure you win makes up for it, for sure.

William Byron

No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Why he may not win: Well, let's not pretend that this won't feel like the shortest week in history for the No. 24 team as it scrambles to prepare for Phoenix, because it absolutely will be.

And it's not like this team was setting the world ablaze in recent months, either, with Byron's last victory coming at Martinsville -- on April 7.

Byron has been great in recent weeks, however, with six straight top-six finishes leading into Phoenix; you just wonder what it's going to take to close it out at Phoenix, something he hasn't been able to do late this season.

Ryan Blaney

No. 12 Team Penske Ford

Key stats: Three wins, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s, 1 pole, 555 laps led, 15.6 average finish

Championship 4 history: Second appearance, defending champion.

Crew chief: Jonathan Hassler (Third season with Blaney)

Pit crew: Tied for eighth in Racing Insights' pit road rank (combining driver and pit crew stats on pit road) and eighth in average four-tire stop time.

Defining 2024 moment: Same as it ever was -- Blaney punching his ticket to the Championship 4 with a clutch win in the Round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway with his back against the wall.

Ryan Blaney

No. 12 Team Penske Ford

Why he could win: Nothing stops this train.

Blaney has long maintained that momentum is the name of the game in this sport, particularly in the playoffs, and after seeing how well it went for them a year ago after swinging for the fences at Martinsville to set up a championship clincher at Phoenix, No. 12 and Co. decided to give it a whirl again this year.

At no point during this season would most out there say that Blaney was the most dominant driver, or the odds-on favorite to repeat. But if you look at this season's dominators -- arguably Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell -- they were all sent packing Sunday at Martinsville after Blaney saw the opportunity ahead of him and took it for the second straight year, winning his way in at Martinsville.

This team is peaking at the absolute best moment and have shown time and again to be a cohesive, tight-knit group that could be fighting for championships for years to come, on top of Blaney's emergence into a 1A-type of driver.

The clutch gene is strong with this one, and YRB should be a force at Phoenix once again this weekend as he attempts to become the first back-to-back champion since Jimmie Johnson.

Ryan Blaney

No. 12 Team Penske Ford

Why he may not win: Honestly, it's hard to come up with a reason here because so much appears to be going the 12's way at the moment.

But if anything, Blaney has been known to lose his cool behind the wheel to a degree and shows a high degree of emotion on the radio -- which we saw last year as he battled a non-title-contending Ross Chastain for the win, eventually claimed by No. 1.

That type of fire could be a blessing or a curse.

Tyler Reddick

No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota

Key stats: Three wins, 12 top fives, 20 top 10s, three poles, 597 laps led, 13.4 average finish; Regular Season Champion

Championship 4 history: First appearance.

Crew chief: Billy Scott (Second year with Reddick)

Pit crew: Tied for eighth in Racing Insights' pit road rank (combining driver and pit crew stats on pit road) and 18th in average four-tire stop time.

Defining 2024 moment: Winning at Homestead-Miami Speedway in remarkable fashion, riding the wall into the Championship 4 past Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin on the final lap.

Tyler Reddick

No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota

Why he could win: Versatility and momentum define a rising star.

Reddick's 2024 season has been a showcase of his growth and his ability to excel across various track types, rounding into form as a true superstar of the sport and collecting the Regular Season Championship. With wins at Talladega and Michigan, Reddick demonstrated his deep skillset and knack for performing on any kind of track; his eight wins have already been spread across every type except a short track.

And then came Homestead.

Reddick's strength lies in his adaptability and aggressive-yet-calculated driving style -- which was on full display on the final lap in the Miami sunshine as he blew the right-side doors off the No. 12 of Blaney and rocketed into the Championship 4.

These traits are particularly valuable at Phoenix Raceway, a unique track that demands both short-track aggressiveness and intermediate track finesse, and the sort of last-second desperation move like that might be needed once again.

While Reddick may not have the extensive Championship 4 experience of some of his competitors -- he's the only one making his first appearance -- his two Xfinity Series titles, demonstrate his ability to perform under pressure. The lessons learned from those championship runs will undoubtedly serve him well in the winner-take-all scenario at Phoenix.

Tyler Reddick

No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota

Why he may not win: Reddick's relative inexperience in Championship 4 scenarios at the Cup level isn't a major deal, but it is a factor; especially when two of his competitors are the last two champions and the other one made it to Phoenix a year ago.

Additionally, Reddick's aggression has led the way to occasional inconsistency for him, and his playoffs were quite a disappointment as a whole, coming off the Regular Season Championship, until his Miami moment.

His aggressive driving style, while often an asset, could potentially lead to mistakes under the intense pressure of a championship race, as well.

Joey Logano

No. 22 Team Penske Ford

Key stats: Three wins, six top fives, 12 top 10s, three poles, 307 laps led, 17.6 average finish.

Championship 4 history: Sixth appearance, two past titles (2018, '22).

Crew chief: Paul Wolfe (fifth season with Logano).

Pit crew: Tied for eighth in Racing Insights' pit road rank (combining driver and pit crew stats on pit road) and 16th in average four-tire stop time.

Defining 2024 moment: Winning at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the Round of 8 to secure his spot in the Championship 4 with a strategic fuel-mileage victory. This came just a week after Logano briefly appeared to be a Round of 12 elimination at the Charlotte Roval, but a penalty to the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet of Alex Bowman resulted in his advancement.

Joey Logano

No. 22 Team Penske Ford

Why he could win: Experience and resilience triumph in the face of adversity.

Logano's down-by-his-standards 2024 season has been a testament to his and crew chief Wolfe's ability to overcome challenges and perform when it matters most. Perhaps that was all part of the plan, anyway. 

There isn't a driver/crew chief combo in the garage that understands more deeply how to maneuver through a 36-race season, meticulously learning throughout, knowing with any early shortcomings that there's a lesson that can be turned into an advantage later. Logano and Wolfe being the best gamblers in NASCAR didn't happen by accident -- and perhaps it's not a gamble when you know what the result will be -- and a dip in stats on Logano's sheet should be looked at as an anomaly, because it's clear this team will be competitive in the playoffs when it counts.

Plus, Logano is a champion through and through, and if he's able to muster a third title this weekend, he enters a significant tier of three-time-plus champions that we haven’t seen in nearly a decade and a half.

No. 22 understands what's at stake here, and there will be no driver more prepared for the opportunity.

Joey Logano

No. 22 Team Penske Ford

Why he may not win: While it's fine to talk about the tinkering and the eventual success it could lead to, the fact that this season's average finish for Logano is his worst-ever in Penske equipment can't be totally ignored.

Learned lessons or not, the performance simply hasn't been there as often as Logano would prefer and there's no guarantee it'll be there at Phoenix, despite it all coming together for the team there in 2022 for the title. Logano crashed out of the spring race this year and didn't collect stage points in either stage, so it's tough to have confidence based on '24 alone.

And then there's always this when you think about the aggressive calls Wolfe tends to make -- at some point, the house always wins.