The eight drivers most likely to advance

Using average-finish stats, here are your Contender Round favorites

MORE: 12 drivers advance to Contender Round | Full race results | Updated series standings
RELATED: Track your picks in the Perfect Chase Grid Challenge and Chase Battle Grid Presented by Toyota

When handicapping the 12 drivers in the Contender Round of the Chase Grid, it helps to put one foot in the past and one foot in the present to hopefully make a confident step toward the future. So what we’ve done is capture the past and present in the form of average-finish stats in order to predict the eight drivers who will advance to the Eliminator Round in the 2014 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

The three statistical categories we examined are: average finish for the 2014 season, average finish in the past five races and average finish at the Contender Round tracks. These categories were chosen because they will help tell us who has been the most consistent driver this season, as well as who’s hot right now and who has the best chance to perform well in the next three races.

By assigning a point value to how each driver ranked in each category (example: Jeff Gordon got 12 points for being the best driver in average finish for this season, while Kyle Busch got one point for being the worst), there is a total at the end and four drivers will be eliminated.

Sounds fun, right? Let’s get to it:

Average finish this season

Inside the Numbers: It shouldn’t surprise any NASCAR fans to see the names at the top of this list. Gordon, Earnhardt Jr., Logano, Keselowski and Johnson have all had great seasons, combining for 19 victories with each driver getting at least three wins. Keselowski leads with five wins, including at Richmond and in the Chase opener at Chicagoland Speedway. Logano and Gordon followed Keselowski by winning the Chase races at New Hampshire and Dover, respectively.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. started the season strong with a victory in the Daytona 500 and followed that up by sweeping the races at Pocono, but as we’ll see in the next statistical category (last five races), he hasn’t been the hottest driver among the Chase participants entering the Contender Round.

Average finish last five races

Inside the Numbers: Junior lands in the middle of the pack with an average finish of 12th in the last five races. That gives him five points in our formula, because he was better than only Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne. Dale Jr.’s 17th-place finish at Dover followed an 11th at Atlanta, a 12th at Richmond, an 11th at Chicago and a ninth at New Hampshire. Not exactly bad by any means, but he isn’t tearing it up, either.

Keselowski took home eight points in this category, which might be difficult to believe considering he won two races in this span. But a 39th-place finish at Atlanta to begin the five-race stretch skewed his numbers. If you discount that race, Keselowski’s average finish over the past four races is an incredible 2.75 — so he might be a little hotter than these numbers suggest.

Average finish at Contender Round tracks

Inside the Numbers: Johnson has by far the best average finish at the Contender Round tracks, more than two positions better than his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Gordon. So for those who don’t want to see “Six-Time” become “Seven-Time,” avert your eyes from this chart — it’s a sign that the No. 48 team could get stronger as the Chase moves on.

Kyle Busch has a history of volatility at these tracks, so you might want to choose someone else in the Chase Grid Battle Game presented by Toyota. Fans might be familiar with Busch’s struggles at Kansas (average finish of 22.7), which is where his Chase imploded last season, but he’s almost equally as bad at Talladega (21.4). Busch said he and crew chief Dave Rogers tried a different car in the spring race at Kansas, leading to a top-15.

The Final Outcome

There you have it, the eight drivers highlighted in the chart above are the ones with the best chance to move on to the Eliminator Round. Of course, we’ll have to see how it actually plays out, but since this was fun, let’s try it again when we get to the final eight to see who has the best shot of making the Championship Four.

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