First, let’s get something straight. Yes, we know that taking the new 2016 postseason format and applying it to the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY Series results to show who would have been the champion last year in an elimination format isn’t scientific. Obviously, drivers — namely Chris Buescher, who had a large points lead late in the season — would have raced differently.
We get it. This isn’t exact. It is, however, fun.
Starting in 2016 the NASCAR XFINITY Series Chase will send 12 drivers into a seven-race postseason, and the field will get whittled from 12 to eight and then eight to four for the season finale at Homestead.
If you need a refresher on the rules, go here.
For the purpose of this exercise, we did not take into consideration the Dash 4 Cash winners getting a Chase berth, because there weren’t heat races last year, and that’s a game-changer.
So, who would have won the championship last year if the new format was in place? So glad you asked.
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THE FIELD
• Four drivers would have clinched berths with victories in the 26 regular-season races — Ryan Reed (Daytona-1), Chris Buescher (Iowa-1, Dover-1), Regan Smith (Mid-Ohio) and Chase Elliott (Richmond-2).
• Eight drivers would have clinched their berths by virtue of points: Ty Dillon, Elliott Sadler, Darrell Wallace Jr., Daniel Suarez, Brian Scott, Brendan Gaughan, Jeremy Clements and Ross Chastain. Chastain would have earned the 12th and final spot by two points over J.J. Yeley. Ryan Blaney, who ran for XFINITY points in 2015, would not be eligible for the postseason despite his win (Iowa-2) since he did not attempt to qualify for all the races.
The points heading into the first postseason race at Kentucky would have looked like this:
Initial postseason standings
| Rank | Driver | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Buescher | 2,006 |
| t-2. | Chase Elliott | 2,003 |
| t-2. | Regan Smith | 2,003 |
| t-2. | Ryan Reed | 2,003 |
| t-5. | Ty Dillon | 2,000 |
| t-5. | Elliott Sadler | 2,000 |
| t-5. | Darrell Wallace Jr. | 2,000 |
| t-5. | Daniel Suarez | 2,000 |
| t-5. | Brian Scott | 2,000 |
| t-5. | Brendan Gaughan | 2,000 |
| t-5. | Jeremy Clements | 2,000 |
| t-5. | Ross Chastain | 2,000 |
ROUND OF 12
The four drivers eliminated after the opening three races (Kentucky, Dover, Charlotte) would have been Brian Scott, Ryan Reed, Jeremy Clements and Ross Chastain.
Regan Smith‘s win at Dover would’ve automatically clinched a spot in the Round of 8.
Gaughan would have finished in eighth place, finishing the round 10 points ahead of Reed for the final transfer spot.
ROUND OF 8
The four drivers eliminated after the round’s three races (Kansas, Texas, Phoenix) would have been Chris Buescher (real 2015 champion), Elliott Sadler, Darrell Wallace Jr. and Brendan Gaughan.
Ty Dillon would have finished the round with the most points. Chase Elliott would have been the final driver to advance to the championship race at Homestead.
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND
With a title field of Ty Dillon, Chase Elliott, Regan Smith and Daniel Suarez, Suarez finished in sixth-place at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
That was the highest finish among the championship-eligible drivers, so Daniel Suarez would have been the 2015 NASCAR XFINITY Series champion.