With so many intangibles that factor into who wins a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race, it might seem like a fool’s errand to try to make predictions based solely on numbers.
But numbers are the most objective means we have to spot trends and try to forecast accurately in sports. So, we’ve done an experiment using average finish and laps led to predict who will advance past the Round of 16 and into the Round of 12 in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
We’ve looked at average finish and laps led in the following categories for each Chase driver: 1. Season stats, 2. Last five races and 3. History at Round of 16 tracks. This way, we feel like we’ve accounted for who has done consistently well this season versus who is hot now versus who has some good experience under his belt.
The results are interesting to mull over while we wait for the start of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup on Sunday in the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
First, let’s look at results for average finish, then we’ll move on to laps led before unveiling the final prediction:
Average Finish
| Rank | Driver | Points |
|---|---|---|
| T-1. | Brad Keselowski | 41 |
| T-1. | Kevin Harvick | 41 |
| 3. | Joey Logano | 37 |
| 4. | Denny Hamlin | 34 |
| 5. | Kyle Larson | 28.5 |
| 6. | Carl Edwards | 28 |
| T-7. | Martin Truex Jr. | 27.5 |
| T-7. | Jimmie Johnson | 27.5 |
| T-9. | Kyle Busch | 22.5 |
| T-9. | Jamie McMurray | 22.5 |
| 11. | Kurt Busch | 22 |
| T-12. | Matt Kenseth | 19.5 |
| T-12. | Chase Elliott | 19.5 |
| 14. | Austin Dillon | 19 |
| 15. | Tony Stewart | 15.5 |
| 16. | Chris Buescher | 4 |
How we got the numbers: We assigned a point value to each Chase driver relative to how they finished in each of the following categories: average finish this season, average finish in the last five races and average finish at the Round of 16 tracks. For example, if a driver was tops in average finish this season, he got 16 points; second place got 15 points and so on down to last place, which got one point. Then, we added up the point values each driver earned in the three categories to arrive at the above list. Here are the top three drivers and bottom three drivers in each category:
Average finish this season:
Leaders: 1. Harvick, 2. Keselowski, 3. Logano.
Followers: 14. Larson, 15. Stewart, 16. Buescher.
Average finish last five races:
Leaders: 1. Hamlin, 2. Logano, 3. Harvick.
Followers: 14. Kenseth, 15. Buescher, 16. Stewart.
Average finish at Round of 16 tracks:
Leaders: 1. Larson, 2. Johnson, 3. Keselowski.
Followers: 14. McMurray, 15. Dillon, 16. Buescher.
Now, let’s take a look at how the drivers fared in laps led.
Laps Led
| Rank | Driver | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Kyle Busch | 45 |
| 2. | Kevin Harvick | 43 |
| 3. | Martin Truex Jr. | 37 |
| 4. | Denny Hamlin | 34 |
| 5. | Jimmie Johnson | 31 |
| T-6. | Carl Edwards | 30 |
| T-6. | Matt Kenseth | 30 |
| 8. | Brad Keselowski | 29 |
| 9. | Joey Logano | 24 |
| 10. | Kyle Larson | 23 |
| 11. | Kurt Busch | 22 |
| 12. | Tony Stewart | 21 |
| 13. | Chase Elliott | 15 |
| 14. | Jamie McMurray | 9 |
| 15. | Austin Dillon | 8 |
| 16. | Chris Buescher | 7 |
How we got the numbers: Same as with average finish, we assigned a point value to each Chase driver relative to how they finished in each of the following categories: laps led this season, laps led in the last five races and laps led at the Round of 16 tracks. Then, we added up the point values to arrive at the above list. Here are the top three drivers and bottom three drivers in each category:
Laps led this season:
Leaders: 1. Ky. Busch, 2. Truex, 3. Harvick.
Followers: 14. Buescher, 15. Dillon, 16. McMurray.
Laps led last five races:
Leaders: 1. Harvick, 2. Ky. Busch, 3. Hamlin.
Followers: 14. Stewart, 15. Buescher, 16. McMurray.
Laps led at Round of 16 tracks:
Leaders: 1. Johnson, 2. Stewart, 3. Ky. Busch.
Followers: 14. Buescher, 15. Elliott, 16. Dillon.
Now, let’s add these two results together to get our final list.
FINAL PREDICTION
| Rank | Driver | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Harvick | 84 |
| 2 | Brad Keselowski | 70 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 68 |
| 4 | Kyle Busch | 67.5 |
| 5 | Martin Truex Jr. | 64.5 |
| 6 | Joey Logano | 61 |
| 7 | Jimmie Johnson | 58.5 |
| 8 | Carl Edwards | 57.5 |
| 9 | Kyle Larson | 51.5 |
| 10 | Matt Kenseth | 49 |
| 11 | Kurt Busch | 44 |
| 12 | Tony Stewart | 36.5 |
| 13 | Chase Elliott | 34.5 |
| 14 | Jamie McMurray | 31.5 |
| 15 | Austin Dillon | 27 |
| 16 | Chris Buescher | 11 |
Final prediction: Elliott, McMurray, Dillon and Buescher won’t make it past the first round, according to our formula. Harvick, Keselowski, Hamlin and Kyle Busch are your best bets to get through to the next round.
Drivers like Johnson and Stewart benefitted from their total laps led at the Round of 16 tracks because of their years of experience. Drivers like Harvick and Truex benefitted from leading the most laps this season. Hamlin’s recent hot streak helped him tremendously. Inexperience and lack of sample size punished drivers such as Dillon and Buescher, while not leading laps hurt McMurray.
Also notable is that neither Elliott nor Buescher has raced at Chicagoland, yet, which hurt their numbers.
But all in all, this looks like a pretty solid list of the drivers in the order we’d expect. We’ll see how it all plays out on Sunday, then we’ll continue our experiment before the Round of 12 gets underway.