RELATED: Series standings | Chase Grid | All you need to know for Talladega
The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup elimination-style format is in its third year and the 2016 postseason marks the last time that Talladega Superspeedway will serve as a cutoff race for the Round of 12 as the playoff field drops to eight drivers. The Talladega and Kansas Chase races will flip-flop their spots on the schedule in 2017, making Kansas the Round of 12 cutoff race.
In previous years, “The Big One” has wreaked havoc on the postseason picture, leaving drivers who looked like near-locks to advance on the outside looking in as the championship battle continued. Bad luck at Talladega always seems to find at least one Chase driver.
In the past two years, the driver second in points (and the first driver not locked in by a win) entering Talladega has failed to advance. Both times that has been a Joe Gibbs Racing driver; Kyle Busch in 2014, Denny Hamlin in 2015. This year, Matt Kenseth, a JGR driver, enters Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) in that same position. Will bad luck strike JGR three years in a row? NASCAR.com examines how the Chase eliminations played out at Talladega the past two years.
(*) on chart indicates that driver won a Round of 12 race to lock up a spot in the Round of 8.
Standings entering 2014 Talladega Chase race
| Rank | Driver | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Joey Logano | 3088* |
| 2. | Kyle Busch | 3082 |
| 3. | Kevin Harvick | 3081* |
| 4. | Ryan Newman | 3077 |
| 5. | Carl Edwards | 3076 |
| 6. | Jeff Gordon | 3074 |
| 7. | Denny Hamlin | 3073 |
| 8. | Kasey Kahne | 3057 |
| 9. | Matt Kenseth | 3056 |
| 10. | Brad Keselowski | 3038 |
| 11. | Jimmie Johnson | 3031 |
| 12. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 3031 |
Standings after 2014 Talladega Chase race (pre-points bump)
| Rank | Driver | Points | Race finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Joey Logano | 3121* | 11th |
| 2. | Kevin Harvick | 3117* | 9th |
| 3. | Ryan Newman | 3117 | 5th |
| 4. | Denny Hamlin | 3100 | 18th |
| 5. | Matt Kenseth | 3099 | 2nd |
| 6. | Carl Edwards | 3099 | 21st |
| 7. | Jeff Gordon | 3093 | 26th |
| 8. | Brad Keselowski | 3085* | 1st |
| 9. | Kasey Kahne | 3090 | 12th |
| 10. | Kyle Busch | 3086 | 40th |
| 11. | Jimmie Johnson | 3053 | 24th |
| 12. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 3045 | 31st |
Keselowski needed a win to advance and got it, holding off a charging Kenseth and getting past Newman on the final lap. Without the victory, Keselowski would have come up five points short of advancing. A wreck just after the midpoint of the race saw Kyle Busch’s title hopes go by the wayside. Kenseth’s runner-up finish vaulted him into the eight drivers who advanced. A 12th-place finish ultimately left Kahne missing the cut by three points. Johnson and Dale Jr. combined to lead 115 of 194 laps but both got caught toward the back of the pack late.
Standings entering 2015 Talladega Chase race
| Rank | Driver | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Joey Logano | 3095* |
| 2. | Denny Hamlin | 3082 |
| 3. | Kurt Busch | 3077 |
| 4. | Carl Edwards | 3076 |
| 5. | Kevin Harvick | 3071 |
| 6. | Brad Keselowski | 3071 |
| 7. | Jeff Gordon | 3071 |
| 8. | Martin Truex Jr. | 3070 |
| 9. | Kyle Busch | 3064 |
| 10. | Ryan Newman | 3062 |
| 11. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 3039 |
| 12. | Matt Kenseth | 3035 |
Standings After 2015 Talladega Chase race (pre-points bump)
| Rank | Driver | Points | Race Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Joey Logano | 3142* | 1st |
| 2. | Carl Edwards | 3115 | 5th |
| 3. | Jeff Gordon | 3113 | 3rd |
| 4. | Kurt Busch | 3112 | 10th |
| 5. | Brad Keselowski | 3111 | 4th |
| 6. | Martin Truex Jr. | 3107 | 7th |
| 7. | Kevin Harvick | 3101 | 15th |
| 8. | Kyle Busch | 3098 | 11th |
| 9. | Ryan Newman | 3095 | 12th |
| 10. | Denny Hamlin | 3090 | 37th |
| 11. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 3083 | 2nd |
| 12. | Matt Kenseth | 3054 | 26th |
An issue with the roof hatch combined with his involvement in an end-of-race wreck knocked Hamlin out of the Chase. Dale Jr. led a race-high 61 laps but couldn’t edge past Logano before the caution came out to end the race. The end-of-race wreck came amidst engine woes for defending series champion Harvick and sparked questions that he intentionally caused a pileup on a restart; NASCAR found no wrongdoing on the No. 4 team’s part. The Chasers were a bit more aggressive in terms of positioning than in 2014. Truex had to overcome starting at the back of the field after his qualifying time was disallowed for dipping below the double-yellow line during his qualifying lap.
Standings entering 2016 Talladega Chase race
| Rank | Driver | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jimmie Johnson | 3082* |
| 2. | Matt Kenseth | 3074 |
| 3. | Kyle Busch | 3072 |
| 4. | Carl Edwards | 3069 |
| 5. | Kurt Busch | 3062 |
| 6. | Martin Truex Jr. | 3058 |
| 7. | Kevin Harvick | 3048* |
| 8. | Joey Logano | 3045 |
| 9. | Austin Dillon | 3045 |
| 10. | Denny Hamlin | 3039 |
| 11. | Brad Keselowski | 3038 |
| 12. | Chase Elliott | 3020 |