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June 29, 2017

DraftKings Rankings: Daytona

Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

1. Joey Logano ($10,000)
– No one has good plate track stats. For every top-10 finish, there is a DNF. Logano has three wins in his last 10 restrictor plate races, and four finishes outside of the top-20. (3.9 fppk)

2. Kyle Busch ($9,600) – The JGR cars got caught in a wreck at the Daytona 500; it happens. When Rowdy isn’t wrecking, he earns a top-three finish (four in the last six plate races). (5.2 fppk)

3. Denny Hamlin ($9,900) – With Junior’s recent plate struggles, Hamlin has assumed the role of best plate racer in NASCAR. In his last 10 plate races, Hamlin has five top-10s and eight top-20s. (3.7 fppk)

4. Clint Bowyer ($8,800) – In 50% of his plate races, Bowyer finishes inside of the top-10. That’s the third best average in NASCAR. This could be the week that Bowyer earns his first win in five years. (3.3 fppk)

5. Kyle Larson ($9,200) – In his first couple of years, Larson struggled at the plate tracks. In five of his last six plate races, he has a top-15 finish. Is there anything he can’t do? The answer is no. (6.0 fppk)

6. Kevin Harvick ($9,500) – With two plate races in the books, Harvick is without a top-15 finish. In the previous 10 plate races, Harvick had eight top-15 finishes. (4.7 fppk)

7. Brad Keselowski ($10,400) – Talladega had always been the preferred plate race for Keselowski, then he won the Daytona race last summer. Penske has fielded the best plate track cars over the last couple years, and Brad is one the best in NASCAR at side drafting. (4.5 fppk)

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($10,300) – This is it; Dale Jr.’s last run at Daytona. He’s the sentimental favorite and a 10-time plate winner. He’s got to win his last race at Daytona. Sure he does, but this isn’t his last Daytona race. He’ll part time plate race just like Mikey Waltrip. (2.6 fppk)

9. Kurt Busch ($9,100) – Not only is he the reigning Daytona 500 champ, but he earned a 6th place finish at Talladega. Kurt has been a very consistent plate racer. If you’re looking for a safe top-10 driver, then look no further. (3.0 fppk)

10. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,700) – Restrictor plates level the playing field at Daytona. Truex will not enjoy his usual advantage this weekend. In the last four plate races, Truex only has one top-25 finish. (6.4 fppk)

11. Austin Dillon ($7,900) – When Junior retires, Dillon will become one of the restrictor plate favorites. He has never won a plate race at the Cup level but he has an absurd amount of top-15s. His rookie season was 2014, and he already has 11 top-15 finishes. (3.6 fppk)

12. Jimmie Johnson ($9,000) – His 8th place finish at Talladega ended a streak of six plate races without a top-10 finish. Before that slump, Johnson rolled off three consecutive top-5 finishes at the plate tracks. (4.8 fppk)

13. Ryan Blaney ($8,500) – Kurt Busch won the Daytona 500, but Blaney scored the most fantasy points. He survived the chaos of Daytona only to wreck in a rather tame Talladega race. The Wood Brothers are a Penske satellite organization, and Penske builds strong plate track cars. (3.0 fppk)

14. Jamie McMurray ($8,100) – Numerous media members believe that McMurray will end his winless drought this season. He has the speed to win anywhere, but this week might be his best shot. McMurray finished second at Talladega. (3.7 fppk)

15. Kasey Kahne ($7,800) – There are a lot of sentimental favorites this week. Fans want to see a first-time winner, a driver in a slump win or Junior win his last Daytona race. What about Kahne? He has scored over 50 fantasy points in each plate race this season. (3.5 fppk)

16. Ryan Newman ($6,700) – Every week one driver is mispriced. This week the store keeper slapped the wrong price tag on Ryan Newman. His plate stats aren’t impressive, but he’s been consistent with six top-20s in his last 10 plate races. (3.6 fppk)

17. Chase Elliott ($8,600) – The 24 car visited victory lane 12 times at the plate tracks. Elliott has yet to make his first trip in a Cup car. In his six plate races, Elliott has three top-15 finishes and three finishes outside of the top-30. That’s plate racing in a nutshell. (4.1 fppk)

18. Michael McDowell ($6,200) – He’s a good road course racer. He was in a crazy wreck at Texas several years ago. What else is there to know? He scores a lot of fantasy points at restrictor plate races. McDowell has topped 50 fantasy points in three of his last five Daytona races. (4.0 fppk)

19. AJ Allmendinger ($6,500) – In the Daytona 500, AJ scored 80 fantasy points. He’s scored 40 fantasy points or more in four of the last five Daytona races. Who needs road courses? (3.7 fppk)

20. Matt Kenseth ($8,700) – This is probably not the week where Kenseth stands out. He hasn’t earned a top-10 at a plate track in 10 races. In fact, during his tenure with JGR, he has just three top-10 finishes at the plate tracks. (3.3 fppk)

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.