Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.
(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)
1. Brad Keselowski ($10,100) — This is Keselowski’s best track. Brad “Kentucky” Keselowski has won three of the six Cup races at Kentucky. His three XFINITY wins prove that he knows this track. (4.4 fppk)
2. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,400) — Furniture Row is more like death row. No one wants to mess with this team. Truex’s 78 car is fast everywhere. He should have won at Kentucky last year, but he was hit with a questionable penalty. (6.0 fppk)
3. Kyle Busch ($10,200) — When Brad Keselowski doesn’t win at Kentucky, JGR wins. Kyle Busch is responsible for two of those wins. He’s running triple duty this weekend, so he will be well versed on the 2017 repave at Kentucky. (5.0 fppk)
4. Kyle Larson ($10,000) — Paved ovals or dirt ovals, Larson does not lose. We are witnessing a historic run. You don’t have to become a fan, but Lightning McQueen should be on your fantasy team. (5.7 fppk)
5. Kevin Harvick ($9,800) — It looked like another year of domination when Harvick scored the most fantasy points at Atlanta in early March. Harvick has been fine this season minus a couple of dust ups, but Larson and Truex have been better than fine. (4.3 fppk)
6. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,400) — This has nothing to do with his newfound restrictor-plate prowess. Every week, Stenhouse hangs around the lead lap and waits for the final caution. On the final restart, Stenhouse plows forward and steals a top-10 like a thief in the night. (4.3 fppk)
7. Jimmie Johnson ($9,700) — Kentucky is one of just a handful of tracks where Johnson has not won. There aren’t many achievements left for Johnson to unlock, but winning at every active track is on the bucket list. (4.7 fppk)
8. Joey Logano ($9,000) — The 22 car’s speed conspicuously vanished following the severe penalty at Richmond. The car seems to be back to where it was, but it’s still a step behind the elite drivers. (3.5 fppk)
9. Denny Hamlin ($9,200) — Over the last two years, Hamlin has been the weakest intermediate track driver for JGR. Over the last two 1.5-mile-track races, Hamlin has reversed course with a top-10 average running position in both races. (3.6 fppk)
10. Matt Kenseth ($9,100) — The second-best average finish at Kentucky belongs to Matt Kenseth. JGR and Penske are the teams to beat at Kentucky. Everyone expects Kyle Busch to be the first JGR driver to win this season, but it could be Kenseth that busts the slump. (3.1 fppk)
11. Clint Bowyer ($8,400) — Plate tracks and road courses are a strong suit for Bowyer. Rolling into Kentucky with back-to-back second place finishes at a road course and plate track shouldn’t be a surprise. If he finishes second at Kentucky, then that would be a surprise. (3.9 fppk)
12. Kurt Busch ($8,100) — Earlier this week, Busch commented on the new, smaller splitter. The hope in the Stewart-Haas Racing shop is that this will level the playing field. With only a plate track win and a road course win, they could use some equality. (2.9 fppk)
13. Ryan Blaney ($8,700) — When Blaney starts up front, be prepared to click his name. The Wood Brothers Ford started on the front row at Texas and Kansas and went on to finish inside the top three in DraftKings fantasy points in each race. (2.9 fppk)
14. Jamie McMurray ($8,500) — There will be a weekend this season when McMurray pulls into Victory Lane. No one will be surprised. The trick is figuring this out ahead of time. Jamie Mac finished second at Kentucky in 2013. (3.7 fppk)
15. Chase Elliott ($9,500) — It’s been awhile since the circuit ran a traditional, oval race. The last such race was Michigan, and Elliot finished second for the third straight time at the fast, two-mile oval. (3.9 fppk)
16. Daniel Suarez ($7,100) — In four XFINITY races at Kentucky, Suarez has three top-5 finishes. It’s a JGR car; after 400 miles, you have to wreck it to keep it out of the top-15. (4.0 fppk)
17. Erik Jones ($7,900) — In four XFINITY races at Kentucky, Jones has two top-5s and a top-10 finish. At Michigan, Jones could have been a top-5 car, if it wasn’t for a lug nut issue. (3.8 fppk)
18. Austin Dillon ($7,600) — Do you believe that the last intermediate track race was Charlotte in May? Do you believe that Austin Dillon won that race? Dillon swept the XFINITY Kentucky races in 2012. (3.3 fppk)
19. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($8,200) — He knows he can’t beat Brad Keselowski or Kyle Busch at Kentucky. He’s happy to turn laps and take home a top-10. Junior has a fast enough car for a top-10, but he also has enough bad luck for a DNF. (2.4 fppk)
20. Kasey Kahne ($7,700) — In the six Cup races at Kentucky, Kasey Kahne has five top-15 finishes. That’s very Kasey Kahne-like. The best description of Kasey Kahne is that he’s a top-15 driver. (3.4 fppk)