We get it, NASCAR fans. You endured a long, cold winter without your beloved sport and your favorite driver. Your excitement for the new season was through the roof. Then came Daytona, followed by Atlanta and the West Coast swing. Now five races into 2018, your favorite driver has … struggled? Okay. Don’t panic. Let’s talk through this.
Your driver’s average finish might not be very good at the moment, but the results may belie the effort that went into procuring them. Let’s search for some silver lining and slivers of hope:
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Chase Elliott (19.2-place average finish)
Elliott tied for the second-most top-15 finishes last year with 27, so it’s startling that he only has two in the first five races of the new season. He presently has two DNFs caused by accidents on his record, which shed poor light on outings at Daytona and Las Vegas, in which he was running second and ninth, respectively, at the time of the crashes. His speed ranking (10th) and average running position (14.6) provide a better indication of his capability.
We also haven’t seen the best iteration of Elliott in traffic given last year’s output. To date, Elliott is a minus passer on the season, securing nine positions less than expected from a driver with his average running position; in 2017, he ranked as the third-best passer in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, earning 172 positions beyond his running spot’s expectation. Restarts from the non-preferred groove acted as a hurdle for him during this five-race sample, in which he retained his position just 16.67 percent of the time while amassing a 30-position loss across 12 attempts. Considering he was a top-five restarter from that groove last year, the laws of statistical regression should benefit him moving forward.
Jimmie Johnson (20.0-place average finish)
We don’t yet know how Johnson’s age-42 season will take shape. He is three years removed from what is, on average, the peak year in a Cup driver’s career, and aging affects drivers differently, but it seems unfair to point to age as the underlying issue with the seven-time champ when the peripheral numbers seemingly restraining his effort are widespread within his own team.
Poor qualifying and inspection area maladies have doomed Johnson in the first five races, during which he started from the top 20 only once. While there’s plenty of time for track position gains in a single race-something at which Johnson still appears good given his 31 surplus positions, earned through on-track passing, beyond his average running position’s expectation-starting with a deficit is ill advised. Worse, Johnson’s No. 48 ranks 13th in speed, representing a drop from ninth last year.
His ability to sift through traffic is elite via a quantifiable percentage; his 83.33 percent position retention on restarts from the preferred groove would’ve made for a top-six rate last year.
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Kurt Busch (18.6-place average finish)
You wouldn’t think a driver with two stage wins and whose car ranks as the third fastest in the series would have this bad of an average finish. Busch has speed in spades, is a plus passer and holds position retention rates-88.9 percent from the preferred groove and 71.43 percent from the non-preferred groove-that build upon his reputation as an ace restarter.
Two DNFs are hindering Busch’s results. Like Chase Elliott, he was wrecked while contending for a Daytona 500 win. He was in the same crash as Elliott at Las Vegas. As the year progresses, herculean feats like passing for 25 positions more than expected from his average running position at ISM Raceway (a plus-29 adjusted pass differential in total) should define his season and its corresponding race results.
Daniel Suárez (21.8-place average finish)
Suárez’s Joe Gibbs Racing entry averages a speed ranking of 14.2, a chasm of over seven positions to his average result. His restart numbers-16.67 percent retention from the non-preferred groove for a loss of 21 positions-are weighing him down. There is a sense his effort on restarts will improve considering his 2017 output.
Despite his 44.8 percent retention rate on non-preferred groove restarts, he ranked as a top-15 restarter last year and fared especially well on such attempts late in races, when his 75 percent retention in crunch time ranked third in the series. Suárez is also developing into a steady long-run mover, with a plus passing efficiency outside of the restart window, evident in positive adjusted pass differentials at ISM Raceway and last weekend at Auto Club Speedway.
Jamie McMurray (22.8-place average finish)
Sure it’d be nice if McMurray’s entry, ranked 19th in speed, was as fast as that of his Chip Ganassi Racing stable mate Kyle Larson’s (ranked 11th overall and fifth with Daytona omitted), but there are easier, more obvious issues to shore up here.
McMurray’s crash rate of 0.60 is currently the highest among full-time drivers, which smacks of a temporary aberration; his full-season crash frequencies topped out at 0.31 twice in the last six years. The No. 1 team also holds the biggest total positional loss during green-flag pit cycles. Crew chief Matt McCall has retained McMurray’s running position prior to green-flag stops just 45 percent of the time-a rough 23 percent below the series-wide rate-for a loss of 30 spots that McMurray has been forced to make up on his own volition.
Improving on both of those unwanted distinctions would right McMurray’s ship better and more swiftly than any on-the-fly gambit for more speed.
David Smith is the Founder of MotorsportsAnalytics.com. Follow him on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA.