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Fantasy Fastlane: 2018 AAA Texas 500
By RJ Kraft | Published: November 2, 2018 15
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays, several under-the-radar options and plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kurt Busch (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Busch is one of three drivers with top 10s in all three starts since the Texas repave prior to the 2017 season. He also won the last two poles here and his 32 stage points over the past three races are the third-most. If you are in need of a gamble, he's a worthy consideration.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Busch is one of three drivers with top 10s in all three starts since the Texas repave prior to the 2017 season. He also won the last two poles here and his 32 stage points over the past three races are the third-most. If you are in need of a gamble, he's a worthy consideration.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Logano may be locked into the Championship 4 at Martinsville but he is still very much a threat at Texas. He has earned the fifth-most points at 1.5-mile tracks this season and was a strong car at Kansas two weekends ago. His 5.3 average finish is second-best since the repave.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Logano may be locked into the Championship 4 at Martinsville but he is still very much a threat at Texas. He has earned the fifth-most points at 1.5-mile tracks this season and was a strong car at Kansas two weekends ago. His 5.3 average finish is second-best since the repave.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Texas is one of two 1.5-mile tracks that Truex has yet to win at. After Martinsville will any driver be more determined to get to Victory Lane? He has only one 1.5-mile win in 2018, but here's a trend to consider from this race: Third in 2016, second in 2017….
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Texas is one of two 1.5-mile tracks that Truex has yet to win at. After Martinsville will any driver be more determined to get to Victory Lane? He has only one 1.5-mile win in 2018, but here's a trend to consider from this race: Third in 2016, second in 2017….
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kyle Busch (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Busch has three Texas wins and is the most recent winner in the Lone Star State. The win was his first top five/10 at Texas since the repave. Still, the 2015 champion has been the best car all year on 1.5-mile tracks: a 3.9 average finish and 47.2 points per race. Strong numbers indeed.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Busch has three Texas wins and is the most recent winner in the Lone Star State. The win was his first top five/10 at Texas since the repave. Still, the 2015 champion has been the best car all year on 1.5-mile tracks: a 3.9 average finish and 47.2 points per race. Strong numbers indeed.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Harvick is the defending race winner at Texas. We can list all his accomplishments on 1.5-mile tracks in recent years but we are going to focus on this track. He has the best average finish (2.3) and most points earned since the repave. Build around him this weekend.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Harvick is the defending race winner at Texas. We can list all his accomplishments on 1.5-mile tracks in recent years but we are going to focus on this track. He has the best average finish (2.3) and most points earned since the repave. Build around him this weekend.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Since the repave, Blaney has an average finish of 7.7 -- third-best among all drivers -- and an average of 39.7 points per race. Throw in his solid performances on 1.5-mile tracks this season with four races of 35 points or more and there is a lot to like about this play on Sunday.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Since the repave, Blaney has an average finish of 7.7 -- third-best among all drivers -- and an average of 39.7 points per race. Throw in his solid performances on 1.5-mile tracks this season with four races of 35 points or more and there is a lot to like about this play on Sunday.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has eight top 10s in his last 12 Texas starts. The 2012 champ has been one of the best this season on 1.5-mile tracks with a win at Las Vegas and notching over 40 points in four races. He may be out of the playoffs, but as he showed at Martinsville, Kes is still a threat to win.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has eight top 10s in his last 12 Texas starts. The 2012 champ has been one of the best this season on 1.5-mile tracks with a win at Las Vegas and notching over 40 points in four races. He may be out of the playoffs, but as he showed at Martinsville, Kes is still a threat to win.
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Sarah Crabill | Getty Images
Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Jones has back-to-back top 10s at Texas. He was particularly impressive in the spring as he led 64 laps en route to a fourth-place finish. He also had a fourth-place showing at the most recent 1.5-mile race (Kansas) and has averaged 29.4 points at that track type.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Jones has back-to-back top 10s at Texas. He was particularly impressive in the spring as he led 64 laps en route to a fourth-place finish. He also had a fourth-place showing at the most recent 1.5-mile race (Kansas) and has averaged 29.4 points at that track type.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Jamie McMurray | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: One of McMurray's two top fives in 2018 came at the Texas spring race when he finished third. The race was his best points day -- 38 points -- thus far this season. With two top 10s in his last three Texas starts, this is a sneaky, against-the-grain type play.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: One of McMurray's two top fives in 2018 came at the Texas spring race when he finished third. The race was his best points day -- 38 points -- thus far this season. With two top 10s in his last three Texas starts, this is a sneaky, against-the-grain type play.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kyle Larson | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: This is a boom-or-bust play in which you need to weigh Larson's suspect Texas history verses his strong 1.5-mile performances this year. He has just three top 10s in 10 starts in the Lone Star State but has earned the fourth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks in 2018.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: This is a boom-or-bust play in which you need to weigh Larson's suspect Texas history verses his strong 1.5-mile performances this year. He has just three top 10s in 10 starts in the Lone Star State but has earned the fourth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks in 2018.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Almirola's average finish at Texas over the past three races (21.7) there is the worst among the playoff field. He has just one top 10 in 15 starts at the 1.5-mile track. Hard to justify that play when others are much better.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Almirola's average finish at Texas over the past three races (21.7) there is the worst among the playoff field. He has just one top 10 in 15 starts at the 1.5-mile track. Hard to justify that play when others are much better.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Clint Bowyer (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Since the repave, Bowyer has the second-worst average finish (18.7) at Texas among playoff drivers. That's a bit deceiving due to a 36th-place finish last fall. However, his 1.5-mile results have been up and down all year.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Since the repave, Bowyer has the second-worst average finish (18.7) at Texas among playoff drivers. That's a bit deceiving due to a 36th-place finish last fall. However, his 1.5-mile results have been up and down all year.
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Sarah Crabill | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: Yes, Johnson is a seven-time winner at Texas. However, he has two straight finishes outside the top 25 at the Lone Star State and is averaging just 20.4 points on 1.5-mile tracks. You can and should do better in your lineup.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: Yes, Johnson is a seven-time winner at Texas. However, he has two straight finishes outside the top 25 at the Lone Star State and is averaging just 20.4 points on 1.5-mile tracks. You can and should do better in your lineup.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski; Garage: Erik Jones. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.