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Fantasy Fastlane: 2019 STP 500
By RJ Kraft | Published: March 22, 2019 16
Robert Laberge | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays, sleepers and plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Westgate.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 8-5
Fastlane forecast: No one has been better at Martinsville in the past four years. In that span, Busch has two wins, an average finish of 2.9, seven top fives and has led 26.7 percent of the laps. In the stage point era, he's averaged 52.3 points per race.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 8-5
Fastlane forecast: No one has been better at Martinsville in the past four years. In that span, Busch has two wins, an average finish of 2.9, seven top fives and has led 26.7 percent of the laps. In the stage point era, he's averaged 52.3 points per race.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is one of two drivers to finish in the top 10 in each of the past six Martinsville races -- that includes his win. In the stage point era, his 46 points per race are second best. It's a tough call between the play and saving for the intermediates.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is one of two drivers to finish in the top 10 in each of the past six Martinsville races -- that includes his win. In the stage point era, his 46 points per race are second best. It's a tough call between the play and saving for the intermediates.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano is the most recent winner here as he gave the ol' bump-and-run to MTJ. He qualifies well -- four poles and 12 straight starting spots in the top 10 at the short track. Based on how he's run with the new package, I'm looking to save.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano is the most recent winner here as he gave the ol' bump-and-run to MTJ. He qualifies well -- four poles and 12 straight starting spots in the top 10 at the short track. Based on how he's run with the new package, I'm looking to save.
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Robert Laberge | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The Virginia native is known for his short-track prowess and has five Martinsville victories with the most recent coming in the spring race of 2015. Add in that he has two stage wins and the third-most stage points here and he's a great play.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The Virginia native is known for his short-track prowess and has five Martinsville victories with the most recent coming in the spring race of 2015. Add in that he has two stage wins and the third-most stage points here and he's a great play.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Much has been made of Truex’s 0-for-78 record on short tracks at the Cup level. Yet, something has clicked in recent years with six top-seven finishes and the third-most points in that stretch. He's in for me with just one use on the board.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Much has been made of Truex’s 0-for-78 record on short tracks at the Cup level. Yet, something has clicked in recent years with six top-seven finishes and the third-most points in that stretch. He's in for me with just one use on the board.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 15-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has one victory at Martinsville – coming in 2011 – but the overall body of work has been up and down. Take the last six races here: Three straight finishes outside the top 15 followed by three top 10s. I am electing to save a use.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 15-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has one victory at Martinsville – coming in 2011 – but the overall body of work has been up and down. Take the last six races here: Three straight finishes outside the top 15 followed by three top 10s. I am electing to save a use.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: I have egg on my face with how bullish I was on Bowyer at Auto Club. It's a new week and the veteran is the defending race winner. He has three top-seven finishes in the last four races and the eighth-most stage points at one of his best tracks.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: I have egg on my face with how bullish I was on Bowyer at Auto Club. It's a new week and the veteran is the defending race winner. He has three top-seven finishes in the last four races and the eighth-most stage points at one of his best tracks.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has three top 10s in his past four Martinsville starts. The lone “miss" there was the race where he led with three to go before contact from Denny Hamlin dropped him to 27th. It's been a slow start but this is certainly a place he can turn it around.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has three top 10s in his past four Martinsville starts. The lone “miss" there was the race where he led with three to go before contact from Denny Hamlin dropped him to 27th. It's been a slow start but this is certainly a place he can turn it around.
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Robert Laberge | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has rebounded from a slow start with back-to-back top fives. At Martinsville, he has two top 10s in six starts but the hidden value is in the fourth-most stage points the past two years.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has rebounded from a slow start with back-to-back top fives. At Martinsville, he has two top 10s in six starts but the hidden value is in the fourth-most stage points the past two years.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: The results haven’t been flashy but Newman grinds out solid days at Martinsville. At RCR, he had five top 10s in 10 starts at the Virginia track and should be in the mix for more of the same.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: The results haven’t been flashy but Newman grinds out solid days at Martinsville. At RCR, he had five top 10s in 10 starts at the Virginia track and should be in the mix for more of the same.
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Robert Laberge | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: It's been an uneven start for Bowman with three top 15s followed by two finishes outside the top 15. He’s a sneaky play here -- thanks to a seventh last year and an avg. 25.0 points last year.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: It's been an uneven start for Bowman with three top 15s followed by two finishes outside the top 15. He’s a sneaky play here -- thanks to a seventh last year and an avg. 25.0 points last year.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Preece | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 500-1
Fastlane forecast: While Preece has four straight finishes outside the top 20, the long shot intrigue lies as the rookie made his bones on short tracks in the Northeast. Monitor his practice results on Saturday.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 500-1
Fastlane forecast: While Preece has four straight finishes outside the top 20, the long shot intrigue lies as the rookie made his bones on short tracks in the Northeast. Monitor his practice results on Saturday.
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Daniel Shirey | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Larson | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Martinsville is statistically his worst non-Roval track -- 24.2 avg. finish with just one top 10 in 10 starts. Don't be fooled by qualifying here (four straight top-nine starts), because it will let you down.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Martinsville is statistically his worst non-Roval track -- 24.2 avg. finish with just one top 10 in 10 starts. Don't be fooled by qualifying here (four straight top-nine starts), because it will let you down.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 60-1
Fastlane forecast: This is the only regular-season track where Jones has yet to record a top 10. In four starts, he's finished no better than 12th and has three finishes outside the top 15. That means stay away.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 60-1
Fastlane forecast: This is the only regular-season track where Jones has yet to record a top 10. In four starts, he's finished no better than 12th and has three finishes outside the top 15. That means stay away.
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Sarah Crabill | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Clint Bowyer; Garage: Chase Elliott. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on FS1.
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on FS1.