Today’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Kansas Speedway is the eighth race of the year at a 1.5-mile track with low- or medium-tire wear. That gives us plenty of data to work with to find the best value when betting matchups and other props.
In particular, there are four representative races that we can lean on to best inform us on driver performance. We can also look back at 2019 data, which had a similar aerodynamic and engine package.
This vast amount of relevant data has led me to recommend these three prop bets:
NASCAR at Kansas Betting Picks
Austin Dillon (+195) for a top-10 finish
Dillon has been very good at low-wear, 1.5-mile tracks this year. In seven races, he has three top-10 finishes, including a win at Texas and a fourth-place at the first Las Vegas race. He does have two races with major incidents, so his top-10 ratio is actually 60% in his incident-free races.
Dillon has an average finish of 8.0 over a five-race sample size and, somewhat stunningly, is 10th place in the point standings. This line at FanDuel is just too good to pass up.
Erik Jones (+100) over Aric Almirola
Both Jones and Almirola have had struggles at low- or medium-wear, 1.5-mile tracks this year, with each having three finishes outside the top 15. Head to head, Jones holds a 4-3 advantage over Almirola. Dating back to 2019, Jones holds an 8-7 lead.
This edge improves to 3-1 for Jones at the four most representative races in 2020, where similar tires have been used. When looking at average green-flag speed from these four races, Jones comes in as the 11th-fastest driver, while Almirola is 16th. Even removing Almirola’s worst race, Jones still ranks better.
Jones should be favored here, so this line at William Hill is good value. I’d bet on Jones as low as -115.
Chris Buescher (+470) for a top-10 finish
I debated between Buescher and Stenhouse, who are priced the same and each have two top-10 finishes to their name at low- or medium-wear, 1.5-mile tracks this year. The tiebreaker came down to three things.
First, Buescher is more consistent, with only two DNFs all year. That gives him more opportunity to place in the top 10 if crazy things happen.
Second, Buescher has just been better all year, leading Stenhouse, 3-2, at 1.5-mile, low-wear races where both drivers did not encounter major incidents.
Third, Buescher’s two top-10 finishes came at the four races where at least one side of tires was the same as what’s being used at Kansas Speedway. Stenhouse has only one finish inside the top 10.
Buescher has eight top-10 finishes on the year, and outside of superspeedways, 1.5-mile tracks are historically his best track type. All four of his top-10 finishes in 2019 came at 1.5-mile tracks.
Snap him up at +470 at FanDuel and hope he keeps his nose clean while faster drivers have issues. Buescher has top-10 finishes in five of his last 13 low-wear, 1.5-mile races, so there is definitely value here.