The following article is brought to you by BetMGM.
After two straight races at Daytona, it’s time to get back to the stock-car basics.
Nothing will remedy it more than heading back to the bread-and-butter of NASCAR racing — a 1.5-mile track. The NASCAR betting odds are interesting.
Homestead-Miami Speedway is a good bit more predictable than Daytona. Now, Greg Biffle isn’t ready to pounce on another Homestead victory. He’s been retired for several years. In fact, it’s not exactly clear who is the most dominant current driver at this south Florida track.
But one thing is for sure: Starting upfront is a massive advantage at any standard 1.5-mile-long track. In fact, the past four race winners at Miami have started in the top five. When it comes to the junior circuits, every Xfinity race winner since 2007 has come from the top 10 as well as every Camping World Truck Series winner since 2013.
It literally pays to start upfront. It is also clear that some of the age-old veterans perform well here. Welcome to 1.5-mile track racing in Dade County.
Denny Hamlin +500
Hamlin won last year’s latest Homestead race and has three all-time victories at the once-a-year track. It only stands to reason that he’d be favored to do it again. Hamlin not only had eight top 10s in the past decade on this track, but he also leads all current drivers with three poles. On some tracks, nabbing a pole isn’t that important. This is one of those tracks where it’s imperative for success. Hamlin has a knack for making that happen.
Thanks to this year’s qualifying format, Hamlin is already on the pole for Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead. Joey Logano (+1000 odds and the 2018 race winner) will start second.
OTHERS: Not too far behind are Kevin Harvick (+600) and Kyle Busch (+1000). Busch won this race in 2019 while Harvick has the top average finish at the track over 10 races. Both are proven winners.
THE DARK HORSE THREAT
Austin Dillon +4000
There are so many ways to look at this. Could Austin Dillon come out of nowhere and win this after 7th- and 8th-place finishes the past two seasons? He’s not exactly a 1.5-mile track ringer, but at the same time, many of the old-time legends at these tracks have moved on to the world of retirement. There is a lot to consider with this.
OTHERS: It’s funny to call Chase Elliott (+550) a long-shot threat on any track, as he has been a favorite for a long time. But with three top 10s in five career Cup starts, he is an interesting guy to keep an eye on. He also was last year’s race runner-up. Kyle Larson (+850) is another guy to keep an eye on.
THE INTRIGUING LONG SHOT
Tyler Reddick +2500
Why are Reddick’s odds better than Dillon’s above? Good question. He has one NASCAR Cup race under his belt at Homestead, and he finished in fourth place last year. That coupled with his Xfinity wins in 2019 and 2018 should turn some heads. But at the same time? He wasn’t racing against the world’s elites when he pulled those victories off in NASCAR’s junior circuit. Just keep an eye on the young star.
OTHERS: Chase Briscoe (+8000) won one of last year’s Xfinity races at the track and he’s signed up to make a go at this. Don’t forget that Cole Custer (+8000) won the 2017 Xfinity race here, as has Daniel Suarez (+30,000, winner in 2016), who has four starts in the Cup series on this track.