Martin Truex Jr.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images

NASCAR betting: Let’s try to beat Chase Elliott, the constant road-course favorite at Charlotte Roval

With the NASCAR Cup Series hitting its seventh and final road course of the season, Chase Elliott again finds himself at the top of the oddsboard, just as he’s been for the previous six races on these layouts. While 2-1 odds (+200) might not sound enticing, a price this short on Elliott is fair at the Bank of America Roval 400 (Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) in Charlotte.

We’re oversimplifying the analysis here, but Elliott has won two of six road course races this season (Austin, Road America), a 33.33% clip, exactly the percentage implied by +200 odds.  And looking back over the past four seasons, Elliott looks like a bargain at this price. Yes, we’re working with a small sample size, but he’s won seven of the 14 road course races since 2018, including the two most recent of the three total in the Roval’s history.

RELATED: NASCAR BetCenter | Odds for Sunday’s race at the Roval

Elliott’s most formidable competition Sunday is his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson, who has also won twice on road courses this season and is the clear second favorite, listed at a consensus 9-2 odds (+450).

Here are odds to win the Bank of America Roval 400 from NASCAR’s three sportsbook sponsors – BetMGM, Barstool and WynnBET, plus the market-making SuperBook USA.

Driver BetMGM Barstool WynnBet SuperBook
Chase Elliott +200 +210 +200 +200
Kyle Larson +450 +450 +450 +450
Martin Truex Jr. +600 +700 +700 +600
Denny Hamlin +1200 +1200 +1200 +1200
Kyle Busch +1200 +1200 +1100 +1000
William Byron +1400 +1400 +1400 +1400
Christopher Bell +1600 +1600 +1600 +1400
Joey Logano +1800 +2200 +2200 +2500
Ryan Blaney +1800 +2000 +2200 +2500
AJ Allmendinger +2000 +1600 +1800 +2000
Kevin Harvick +2500 +2800 +2800 +3000
Alex Bowman +2500 +3000 +2800 +3000
Kurt Busch +2500 +3000 +3300 +3000
Brad Keselowski +4000 +4500 +4000 +5000
Chase Briscoe +4000 +4000 +4000 +5000
Ross Chastain +4000 +4000 +4000 +3000

Larson’s 108.6 average driver rating on roads, accumulated mostly with Chip Ganassi Racing, is third-best in Cup (behind Elliott’s 124.0 and Martin Truex Jr.’s 112.7), per DriverAverages.com. His 13th and 25th in two starts at the ROVAL are not outwardly impressive, but he won the first stage of both races, his 110.2 rating on this track is second to Elliott (124.5), and we expect more from him in Hendrick equipment.

So a bet on Larson at +450, a far nicer price than you’ll get on Elliott, is justifiable, and so is a play at +130 in a matchup prop against Elliott at Barstool. The No. 5 has finished ahead of the No. 9 in three of six road course races this season.

RELATED: Breaking down the Kyle Larson vs. Chase Elliott matchup

Other contenders

Truex, below Elliott and Larson on the oddsboard, knows how to steer his way around roads as well. In the 14 road-course races since 2018, his 8.14 average finish is second to Elliott’s 5.93 (among drivers with more than one start) and his aforementioned driver rating also shines. His performances on roads this season, however, have been spotty, and he’s finished seventh twice and 14th once on the Roval (although the 14th came after last-lap contact battling Jimmie Johnson for the win). If you envision the No. 19 competing Sunday, Barstool offers decent prices on Truex for a top-three finish (+200) and top five (-106).

Kyle Busch, meanwhile, may deserve a look at 12-1 odds in the outright market. He has four wins in 40 road-course starts, and his string of three straight top fives on roads this season was snapped at Indy. While Busch – in eighth place, just inside the elimination line for the next round of the NASCAR Playoffs – may benefit from a relatively conservative approach Sunday, we’re not sure that’s how he’s wired. If he has a chance to win, he’ll probably go for the checkers.

A bettor can also not be blamed for taking a flyer on Kyle’s brother, Kurt, at 30-1 odds or better. He tends to hang around on road courses, with four top-six finishes in six races this year and a fourth and fifth at the Roval. WynnBET offers +400 on a top-five finish for the No. 1 Chevrolet and +115 on a top-10.

Win and in

The Roval 400 is the last race of the Round of 12, and the four drivers below the elimination line figure to be aggressive Sunday as they look to advance to the final eight. While Kevin Harvick is just nine points below the elimination line, Christopher Bell, William Byron and Alex Bowman are more desperate and pretty much need a win to move on.

A case can be made for Bell, who won the Daytona Road Course this season and finished second at Road America.

While Byron has never finished in the top five in 14 career road course starts, his Hendrick teammate may pique a gambler’s interest. Even though Bowman has been 17th or worse in the three most recent Cup road races, he’s taken a liking to the Roval, with a second-, a fourth- and an eighth-place finish here. If he’s running near the front, watching The Showman push for the lead with a 30-1 ticket in your pocket might make for a fun Sunday sweat.

Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.