CONCORD, NORTH CAROLINA - OCTOBER 10: Chase Elliott, driver of the #9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet, sits in the grass after an on-track incident during the NASCAR Cup Series Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 10, 2021 in Concord, North Carolina. (Photo by Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images

The Action Network: How to bet Chase Elliott vs. Kevin Harvick

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Everything that’s old is new again.

While it was just a short few weeks ago, it seemed all quiet on the Chase Elliott vs. Kevin Harvick front after their run-ins at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Well, that all changed Sunday when Harvick appeared to purposely dump Elliott at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.

To make matters even more interesting, it seemed Harvick wrecked his No. 4 Ford all by his lonesome later in the race due to mirror driving as Elliott closed in for possible retribution.

This all resulted in Harvick being eliminated from the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, while Elliott drove his somewhat-repaired No. 9 Chevy back to a 12th-place finish, earning enough points to advance to the Round of 8.

So where does this all lead?

How about an Elliott vs. Harvick head-to-head driver matchup for Sunday’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC) at Texas Motor Speedway?

NASCAR at Texas Betting Pick

Harvick has a much better chance of competing with Elliott at tracks that use the 750-horsepower, lower-downforce package.

Unfortunately for Harvick, Sundays’ Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas is not one of those races.

In fact, the No. 4 Ford hasn’t been good at all on this tire combination either, ranking with just the 15th-best driver rating at those three races (Las Vegas Motor Speedway twice and Michigan International Speedway).

Elliott, on the other hand, has posted the fourth-best driver rating over that span, including the third-most laps led and the fourth-most fast laps run.

Elliott will also have a huge track position advantage over Harvick on Sunday.

The No. 9 Chevy rolls off sixth, while Harvick’s Ford will start back in 24th.

Now, I’ve spent the last few sentences explaining why Elliott has the edge over Harvick at Texas, but that’s not exactly lost on oddsmakers.

Elliott’s price of -175 in this matchup (Harvick is +132) at Barstool Sportsbook translates to an implied probability of 63.64%, meaning Elliott needs to finish ahead of Harvick 63.64% of the time to breakeven in this matchup.

Based on the data above, I do think Elliott will outrun Harvick more than the odds imply, so I’ll lay the -175 price in this matchup.

The Bet: Elliott -175 over Harvick.