If you like Kyle Larson to close the deal and claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship, now is not the time to make that bet.
Listed with skinny 3-2 odds (+150) at sportsbooks throughout the betting market, Larson’s price will fatten up once the group that will battle for the title at Phoenix Raceway is set.
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Larson punched his ticket to the Championship 4 with a win last Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway, prompting oddsmakers to tighten his futures number from the +250 range he was in last week. The books are likely to ease him back out as the field takes shape.
“His odds will obviously rise once we know the other three, unless we get some crazy three we don’t anticipate,” Ed Salmons, vice president of risk at SuperBook USA, told NASCAR.com.
Here’s how odds to win the Cup championship look at four different sportsbooks (as of Thursday morning) – NASCAR’s three official betting partners, plus the SuperBook – heading into Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway.
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| SuperBook | BetMGM | Barstool | WynnBET | |
| Kyle Larson | +150 | +150 | +150 | +150 |
| Ryan Blaney | +450 | +500 | +550 | +500 |
| Denny Hamlin | +550 | +500 | +500 | +475 |
| Kyle Busch | +700 | +700 | +700 | +650 |
| Chase Elliott | +1000 | +900 | +800 | +750 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1400 | +1200 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2500 | +2000 | +1400 | +1600 |
| Joey Logano | +4000 | +3300 | +2800 | +2500 |
When the odds are reset for Phoenix, the numbers will be akin to what we’re used to seeing in group matchup props, where bettors are asked to select which driver will finish first among a group of four. Unless it’s Chase Elliott on a road course, it’s rare to see a driver priced under +200 in one these groups. As seven other drivers scramble for the remaining three spots to join Larson in the Championship 4, it’s hard to predict what the No. 5’s odds will be before Phoenix, but with the best talent in the sport likely to be there, we’re almost certain to see him better than +150.
We probably won’t see him at the +300 at which he was offered before the playoffs – or the +1000 he caught before the season – so if you got down at one of those prices, congratulations on a fine bet. If you missed the boat so far but still want action on Larson to win it all, be patient and wait for a better price.
LIABILITY FOR THE BOOK
The SuperBook won’t be sweating the No. 5 at Phoenix, no matter who he is matched up against, as a Larson championship is a winner for the house.
Only two drivers, in fact, are losers for the book, and while both are still alive in the Round of 8, one is the now longest shot on the board: Joey Logano.
And based on the 40-1 odds the SuperBook is dangling on Logano, the shop is happy to take a few more bets on the No. 22. Mile-and-a-half tracks like Kansas are not Logano’s favorite, so his most realistic shot at advancing to the Championship 4 appears to be winning at Martinsville Speedway in two weeks.
Liability looms on Denny Hamlin, however, but not to the point where the No. 11 is priced above Ryan Blaney as the second favorite behind Blaney. Salmons characterizes the potential loss on either Logano or Hamlin as modest.
Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.