The Action Network: The best title bet to make right now for Phoenix

Martin Truex Jr. Phoenix win
Christian Petersen
Getty Images

The Action Network specializes in providing sports betting insights/analytics and is a content partner with NASCAR. Check out more NASCAR betting analysis here.

The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season concludes on Sunday at Phoenix Raceway (3 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App/Peacock, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), with four drivers still eligible for the championship: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr.

This means that whichever of those four drivers has the best finish in Sunday’s race will be the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion.

For the record, the eventual champion doesn’t necessarily have to win the race to win the title.

The only determining factor is which of those four secures the best finish, no matter where that is in the final race results.

Let’s take a look at the array of NASCAR championship odds, including my favorite bet to win the 2021 title.

RELATED: Title odds from BetMGM | Odds for Sunday’s title race | NASCAR BetCenter

NASCAR Championship Betting Pick

Clearly, all four of these drivers are capable of winning the championship — that’s why they’ve advanced this far.

But from a NASCAR betting perspective we’re most concerned about the associated odds with each.

Interestingly, NASCAR championship odds vary wildly from sportsbook to sportsbook, which is actually a big advantage for bettors.

For example, Kyle Larson is currently +140 at BetMGM but +175 at PointsBet.

I’m going in a different direction by taking the biggest championship longshot in Truex.

At Phoenix back in March, Truex won the race while running the most fast laps and posting the third-best driver rating.

In addition, the short, flat tracks (like Phoenix) have also been Truex’s best this season. In six total races across Phoenix, Richmond, New Hampshire and Martinsville, the No. 19 team has the most wins (three), the most top-five finishes (five) and the second-best driver rating.

With a very enticing +450 (BetMGM) price tag, Truex’s speed at this category of tracks this season makes him my favorite value bet to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship.

The Bet: Truex Jr. (+450) to win championship