Sixteen NASCAR Cup Series drivers qualify for the 10-race NASCAR Playoffs each season by virtue of wins or points. The path to the Bill France Cup then requires surviving three elimination rounds with three races apiece before the ultimate Championship 4 title battle.
The 2021 NASCAR Playoffs field consisted of, in order of final standings: Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, William Byron, Kurt Busch, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman, Aric Almirola and Michael McDowell. All of them are eligible yet again in 2022, though not all — Keselowski and Kurt Busch — are in the same car as last year. One — Almirola — even has plans to retire from full-time competition at season’s end and another — McDowell — notched his first career Cup win in the Daytona 500 after 13 years without a Cup victory.
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NASCAR.com’s RJ Kraft and Terrin Waack offer their pick for which playoff driver from 2021 will not make the postseason field in 2022 which begins at Darlington Raceway on Sept. 4 and ends at Phoenix Raceway on Nov. 6.
KRAFT: I’d be surprised if Michael McDowell repeats as a playoff driver — with no top 15s in his final 22 races last year, it’s just difficult to see the path there without scoring another win on a superspeedway. With the Next Gen car debuting and teams having to find fresh data points and create new notebooks, NASCAR fans are going to be in for a surprise with someone from one of the powerhouse teams struggling to make the postseason. In that regard, I am taking Christopher Bell to not make it into the playoff field after making it last year.
Is that a bit of a hot take? Perhaps, since the Joe Gibbs Racing driver did close out 2021 with five top-nine finishes in his last six races but I think Bell has the biggest mountain to climb in the JGR camp as he led the fewest laps of that quartet. Another thing to consider with Bell is that the overall consistency just wasn’t there with him as much as it was with most of the playoff field from 2021. His 15.8 average finish was third-worst among the playoff drivers with only McDowell and Almirola posting lower marks. Without his win at the Daytona Road Course, Bell would have been in a fight just to make the playoffs — granted having a win after the second race of the season also likely shifted the No. 20 team’s priorities.
Bell is still a rising talent, but it would not surprise me if his sophomore season at JGR carried with it some lessons that made him more formidable in the long run.
WAACK: Aric Almirola. In his last full-time NASCAR schedule, Almirola will not make the playoffs. If it weren’t for his 2021 win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, which came in Race 22 of 26 in the regular season, the driver of the No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford would not have qualified. His highest point ranking was 20th after Race 2, and even that wouldn’t have cut it had he somehow managed to reach it again before the deadline. He finished 16th (Watkins Glen International), 19th (Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course), 17th (Michigan International Speedway) and 14th (Daytona International Speedway) in the four races before playoffs began, too. No wins, no berth.
Through 388 career starts, Almirola has never had back-to-back seasons with wins. If 2022 keeps to that trend, that’s another reason he won’t make the playoffs. Almirola announced his retirement from the sport back in early January, opting out to spend more time with his family. He’s bound to give it all he has in his last go-around. That just might not be enough.