Toyota entered Charlotte with a boatload of momentum, dominating the last points-paying mile-and-a-half race at Kansas two weeks ago. In the All-Star Race last week, the manufacturer wasn’t too shabby either, with Denny Hamlin battling for the win on a green-white-checkered finish. In qualifying on Saturday, five of the 10 drivers advancing to the final round drove Toyota. See a theme?
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Denny Hamlin
Starter 2: Kyle Busch
Starter 3: Kurt Busch
Starter 4: Martin Truex Jr.
Starter 5: William Byron
Garage pick: Kyle Larson
MORE: Set your lineup | Starting lineup
NEXT IN LINE: Christopher Bell, Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman
RISING: Denny Hamlin has never won the Coca-Cola 600 before but came close on multiple occasions. And despite his rough start to the season — just two top-10 finishes in 13 races — this might be his best shot yet, as the No. 11 car won the pole. At some point, the No. 11 team that’s made the previous three Championship 4 races needs to find consistency in 2022; we could be on the precipice.
Based on how much Tyler Reddick flirts with danger by running the wall, I could understand why you’d want to stay away from him this weekend. It’s bitten him before, but it’s also won him two Xfinity Series championships. With the outside line being dominant thus far in the weekend, this race could fall right into Reddick’s wheelhouse, and he could become the eighth driver to win their first Cup race in the Coca-Cola 600.
FALLING: Kyle Larson entered the weekend as the race favorite, having crushed the field in last year’s Coca-Cola 600, leading a commanding 327 laps. The No. 5 team’s chance to defend its Coca-Cola 600 crown this year got much harder, as Larson got into the wall in practice after hitting the rev limiter. He was first on the scoring pylon when making contact, so we know the No. 5 car has speed — but Larson will have to start from the rear.
The 2022 season has been like a roller coaster for Austin Dillon, earning six top-10 finishes but also five results outside of the top 20 through 13 races. That sums up his Saturday evening at Charlotte, too. The No. 3 car ranked 33rd in practice, more than one second off the quick lap. Dillon improved to 16th in qualifying, but both Dillon and Reddick have mentioned steering issues in recent weeks which is a cause for concern.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Kyle Busch vs. Kyle Larson: Collectively, these are all tough matchups this weekend. This might be the hardest to predict, based on how well each driver runs at Charlotte. The slight edge has to go to the No. 18 team, as Toyota has backed up its Kansas speed thus far. Busch was in position to win that race, and last year was the lone driver to finish inside the top five in the Coca-Cola 600 that wasn’t under the Hendrick Motorsports banner.
Chase Elliott vs. Martin Truex Jr.: While Elliott has three consecutive top-two finishes at Charlotte, Truex is bound to win a race in the next few weeks. While it may not be this weekend, he is part of the Toyota brigade that’s been quick so far. Granted, he was the lone Toyota driver to miss the second round of qualifying.
Ryan Blaney vs. Kurt Busch: When Busch gets hot, he often stays hot. At Kansas Speedway, his No. 45 car was dominant, and a lot of those characteristics carry over to Charlotte. Busch is the pick.
Daniel Suárez vs. Bubba Wallace: Earlier in the week, Suárez would probably have gotten the edge over Wallace. But given the No. 23 team made the final round of qualifying for just the third time this season, Wallace has a quick Toyota, and arguably had the best car at Kansas two weeks ago. Want to go out on a limb? Wallace scores a top five on Sunday evening.