With practice and qualifying at Homestead-Miami Speedway being on a cool surface in the morning, there’s no telling how much will transition into the warm, South Beach sun during Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM). Hendrick Motorsports topped qualifying, while Toyota continued to stand out on intermediate tracks. Subbing for Bubba Wallace, John Hunter Nemechek put together an impressive Saturday in what’s scheduled to be his lone Cup start of 2022.
RELATED: Starting lineup for Sunday | Set your Fantasy Live lineup
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Kyle Larson
Starter 2: William Byron
Starter 3: Tyler Reddick
Starter 4: Denny Hamlin
Starter 5: Christopher Bell
Garage pick: Ross Chastain
NEXT IN LINE: Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, John Hunter Nemechek, Chase Elliott.
RISING: After Wallace’s one-race suspension, Nemechek gets his best opportunity at the Cup level this weekend driving the No. 45 Toyota. Nemechek loves Homestead and was quick at the two-day test last month. He backed up that speed in practice (first) and earned his best career starting spot in qualifying (fourth).
Through the first four intermediate-track races in the playoffs, Elliott has been a non-factor. Last week at Las Vegas, the No. 9 car barely cracked the top 20 throughout the 400-mile race. But he showed up in qualifying and will start third. Overall, Hendrick Motorsports showed a bunch of speed, putting three cars inside the top five.
FALLING: Harvick’s 16th-place starting position is his worst at Homestead since 2012. And while qualifying doesn’t typically matter a ton in South Florida, Harvick was 23rd in single-lap practice speed and 22nd on 10-lap averages. Think it bodes well to save a use of the No. 4 car this weekend, despite Harvick netting seven top-five finishes in his last eight Homestead starts.
In four of the last five Homestead races, Truex has finished on the podium. The first of those resulted in winning the 2017 championship; his two runner-up finishes meant second-place finishes in the championship battle. The No. 19 team has had an adventurous postseason, tallying a pair of top 10s. He will start 12th but ranked 20th in practice.
RELATED: Updated race-day odds
FEATURED MATCHUPS
Ryan Blaney vs. Joey Logano: All the talk out of the Homestead test in September was how much speed Team Penske had found. Logano credited his win at Las Vegas last week to gathering data at Homestead. However, all three Penske drivers missed the final round of qualifying. Blaney was the best of the trio in 13th, and given he’s chasing points, I believe he’s the better choice.
Chase Briscoe vs. William Byron: The defending winner, Byron, put his No. 24 Chevrolet on the pole. It’s his first pole of 2022. Briscoe will line up 19th for the race and was slower than Byron on long-run speed. Briscoe has been overlooked all postseason and has maximized his points, but Byron could win this race. Use the No. 24 car in your lineup Sunday.
Chase Elliott vs. Denny Hamlin: Entering the weekend, Hamlin would have been a heavy favorite to outrun Elliott. That advantage is gone after Saturday, with Elliott qualifying third and Hamlin back in 14th. With how the No. 11 Toyota runs at tracks like Homestead — Hamlin has three wins on the 1.5-mile track — I’d still think Hamlin scores more points during the race.