Winning the Daytona 500 is a life-changing experience because the victorious driver will always be part of a special club in motorsports history. And as Sunday’s race nears, thoughts turn to who could take the checkered flag this time, in the 65th annual running of the “Great American Race.”
Most fans have a favorite driver they’d like to see cross the finish line first, but what if we thought with our heads instead of our hearts?
RELATED: Everything to know about Daytona 500
That’s exactly what we’ll do in a new weekly feature called Advance to Victory Lane, presented by Advance Auto Parts. Our partner Racing Insights will predict both the winner and the entire finishing order of the next race in the NASCAR Cup Series. Racing Insights utilizes an advanced statistical formula that weighs factors such as current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a winner and full race results.
Starting positions and practice data will also come into play, so come back Sunday after qualifying and final practice are over to see an updated version of the projected finishing order – although for Daytona, this race is such a wild-card that our projection didn’t change.
Without further ado, here is the Racing Insights projection for how the Daytona 500 will turn out Sunday at Daytona International Speedway (2:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
BREAKING THROUGH?: Projected winner Ryan Blaney has finished in the top 10 in four of the last six Daytona 500s, a stretch that also includes two runner-up finishes.
CATCH MY DRAFT: Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott won at two drafting tracks last year, and was runner-up in the “Great American Race.” The model likes his performance on big tracks.
HAPPY RETURNS: It’s important to keep in mind that this is Jimmie Johnson’s first NASCAR Cup Series race since 2020, and his first ever in the Next Gen car.
Projections last updated Saturday, Feb. 18.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTED FINISHING ORDER
| Finish | Car No. | Driver |
| 1 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 2 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 4 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 5 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 6 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 7 | 4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 8 | 14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 9 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 10 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 11 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 12 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 13 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 14 | 24 | William Byron |
| 15 | 10 | Aric Almirola |
| 16 | 41 | Ryan Preece |
| 17 | 34 | Michael McDowell |
| 18 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 19 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 20 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 21 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 22 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 23 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 24 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 25 | 7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 26 | 31 | Justin Haley |
| 27 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 28 | 42 | Noah Gragson |
| 29 | 77 | Ty Dillon |
| 30 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 31 | 51 | Cody Ware |
| 32 | 21 | Harrison Burton |
| 33 | 38 | Todd Gilliland |
| 34 | 78 | BJ McLeod |
| 35 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 36 | 84 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 37 | 15 | Riley Herbst |
| 38 | 62 | Austin Hill |
| 39 | 36 | Zane Smith |
| 40 | 67 | Travis Pastrana |