Advance to Victory Lane: Projected Phoenix winner and race results

Kevin Harvick smiles while waiting on the grid at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Harvick is a favorite in Advance to Victory Lane.
Chris Graythen
Getty Images

It’s hard not to start with Kevin Harvick when discussing the NASCAR Cup Series coming to Phoenix Raceway. Harvick’s active streak of 19 straight top-10 finishes at the track is not only tops at Phoenix, but they’re also the best all-time for all tracks. (Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt each had a run of 18 consecutive top-10 finishes at North Wilkesboro Speedway, according to Racing Insights.)

Harvick also leads all drivers with nine career wins at Phoenix. However, despite having all of these gaudy numbers in his favor, Harvick isn’t the only driver to keep a close eye on for Sunday’s United Rentals Work United 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Besides Harvick, the drivers who also finished in the top 10 in both Phoenix races last year in the Next Gen car were Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Chase Briscoe and Ross Chastain.

RELATED: Phoenix race-day odds | Latest Power Rankings

Briscoe won the spring race, while Logano took home the checkered flag in the fall race to clinch the 2022 Cup Series championship. So, what will happen this time in the second year of the Next Gen car at the always-exciting and always-picturesque jewel in the desert that is Phoenix Raceway?

That’s why we lean on our partners at Racing Insights for their expert analysis in the latest edition of Advance to Victory Lane, sponsored by Advance Auto Parts. Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a winner and full race results.

The projections were updated after a 50-minute practice on Friday and qualifying on Saturday.

RYAN BLANEY: Blaney had the most laps run in the top five in 2022 at Phoenix with 546. He also holds the second-longest streak of top-10 finishes at Phoenix with five.

JOEY LOGANO: Logano has three victories at Phoenix, which is tied for tops on his list of most wins at one track. He also spent 342 laps running in the top five last year at Phoenix.

KYLE LARSON: Larson is coming off a tough runner-up finish at Las Vegas, but he looks to have perhaps the top car at Phoenix. The Hendrick Motorsports driver paced practice Friday, then followed up with a Busch Light Pole Award run Saturday.

Projections as of Sunday, March 12:


Finish Car No. Driver
1 12 Ryan Blaney
2 22 Joey Logano
3 5 Kyle Larson
4 11 Denny Hamlin
5 4 Kevin Harvick
6 24 William Byron
7 1 Ross Chastain
8 19 Martin Truex Jr.
9 20 Christopher Bell
10 6 Brad Keselowski
11 8 Kyle Busch
12 14 Chase Briscoe
13 43 Erik Jones
14 2 Austin Cindric
15 10 Aric Almirola
16 45 Tyler Reddick
17 99 Daniel Suárez
18 48 Alex Bowman
19 23 Bubba Wallace
20 3 Austin Dillon
21 17 Chris Buescher
22 16 AJ Allmendinger
23 34 Michael McDowell
24 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
25 31 Justin Haley
26 21 Harrison Burton
27 41 Ryan Preece
28 7 Corey LaJoie
29 77 Ty Dillon
30 38 Zane Smith
31 15 Todd Gilliland
32 9 Josh Berry
33 54 Ty Gibbs
34 78 BJ McLeod
35 51 Cody Ware
36 42 Noah Gragson