Advance to Victory Lane: Road course acts as curveball for predictions

Sunday’s race at Circuit of The Americas provides NASCAR Cup Series drivers with their first road-course test of the 2023 season. For prognosticators and prediction models, it also means a whole new ballgame. Drivers who are considered lead-pipe locks for intermediate courses might not be as reliable when turning left and right on a road course.

AJ Allmendinger and Tyler Reddick have been two of the hottest drivers over the last four road-course races, with Allmendinger registering four top-10 finishes and Reddick winning two of those four contests – plus, Allmendinger won Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series race and Reddick has moved to the top of the betting odds board for Sunday.

But look out for William Byron, who starts on the pole on Sunday and finished second in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. Byron, a two-time winner this season, could just as easily end up in Victory Lane.

FANTASY LIVE: Set your roster

To help us decipher what could happen on Sunday in the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), Racing Insights used its advanced statistical formula to predict both the winner and full race results. Racing Insights uses data on the current track, current track type, recent performance, team performance and pit crew performance to make its projections.

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ONES TO WATCH

Ross Chastain: He won this race last year after a dramatic final-lap battle with Allmendinger that literally went down to the last turn.

Alex Bowman: Bowman is one of four drivers who has had a top-10 finish in both COTA races (2021 and 2022). Chastain, Reddick and Chase Elliott are the others.

Kyle Busch: With Elliott sidelined because of an injury, Busch is tied with Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. for the most road-course wins among active drivers (four).

Tyler Reddick: The 23XI Racing driver has the best average finish on road courses among active drivers at 12.93 in 15 starts.

Kyle Larson: He has the most road-course wins in a season by a driver with three in 2021.

Projections as of Sunday, March 26.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE ECHOPARK AUTOMOTIVE GRAND PRIX