Given Friday was a wash at Bristol Motor Speedway, Cup Series teams didn’t know what they had until the 15-lap qualifying heat on Saturday. Even that can be a moving target, given it was just four, 15-lap qualifying heats. However, there were some pleasant surprises, such as USAC Triple Crown winner J.J. Yeley, who gave Rick Ware Racing a qualifying position of third. It’s his best starting position since winning the pole in 2007 at Michigan International Speedway for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Kyle Larson
Starter 2: Christopher Bell
Starter 3: Tyler Reddick
Starter 4: Kyle Busch
Starter 5: Chase Briscoe
Garage pick: Austin Dillon
NEXT IN LINE: Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Bubba Wallace.
RELATED: Updated race-day odds | Set your lineup
RISING: Earlier this week, I highlighted how poorly Austin Dillon had run in the two previous editions of the Bristol Dirt Race (average finish of 26th). But the No. 3 car made quick work from his fifth starting position to get to the lead in the first qualifying heat en route to leading 13 of the 15 laps. Dillon has plenty of dirt racing experience and could be a factor Sunday evening (7 ET, FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Ryan Blaney has deep ties to the dirt racing community. His father Dave Blaney has competed across the country in the World of Outlaws and big block modifieds. His uncle Dale Blaney is a multi-time All Star Circuit of Champions champion. On Saturday, Blaney led wire-to-wire in the second qualifying heat and has top-10 finishes in each of the previous two Bristol dirt races. Maybe he’s got a future racing on dirt, eh?
FALLING: In a stacked opening qualifying heat that had six drivers with a multitude of dirt racing experience, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. drew the pole. The No. 47 Chevrolet dropped quickly and ended up finishing fifth. While his dirt experience could come in handy on Sunday, his car didn’t seem to have the sheer speed that other cars did just in his qualifying heat alone.
Expectations for Justin Haley were high going into the weekend — he’s a proven winner in the dirt world. But the No. 31 Chevrolet lacked speed, falling two spots in his qualifying heat. Unfortunately, it could be a tough weekend for Haley this weekend, as he starts deep in the field: 25th.
FEATURED MATCHUPS
Kyle Busch vs. Joey Logano: Both drivers drew deep positions in the final qualifying heat, but Busch powered his way from sixth to battling for the win with Bubba Wallace. Logano gained three positions to fifth. This is tricky, but given Busch will start from fifth, it’s hard to bet against the No. 8 team. Then again, the No. 22 crew won from 10th starting position two years ago. He will start the race in 12th on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick vs. Daniel Suárez: Suárez had a strong showing in the first Bristol dirt race, but Saturday was probably his worst day at the track thus far in 2023. The No. 99 Chevrolet was running last in the final qualifying heat and looped around before his car wouldn’t restart. Meanwhile, Reddick had a fun battle with Dillon for the heat win in the opening heat. Reddick is the easy choice.
Christopher Bell vs. Kyle Larson: Both drivers had a fun opening lap in their respective qualifying heats. Bell pulled a four-wide move to drive from eighth to fifth — and eventually finished third. Larson went from sixth to first (!) in the first lap of his qualifying heat. These two heavyweights will likely be in contention for the win. And though Larson is likely going to get the glory for starting on the pole, I’m leaning toward the No. 20 team with the maneuverability in his car and how stout his qualifying heat was. Bell will take the green flag from fourth.
Alex Bowman vs. Chase Briscoe: Despite having a broken middle finger on his left hand that will require surgery next week, Briscoe had a strong outing to finish second in Heat No. 2. Bowman dropped two spots to fourth in the opening heat. The story of Bowman’s season has been consistency, and he will likely continue that on Sunday. But for whatever reason, drivers tend to perform better injured, and Sunday could be Briscoe’s strongest showing this year.