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April 12, 2023

Analysis: How Chase Elliott can qualify for 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs


Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott has never missed the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs in his previous seven full-time seasons at the sport’s top level.

Making it 8-for-8 will be a challenge considering Elliott has missed six races while recovering from a broken bone in his left leg, the result of a snowboarding accident before the race weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in early March.

Now that the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is returning this weekend at Martinsville Speedway, the path to the postseason, at the very least, is clear: Just win, baby.

RELATED: Martinsville weekend schedule | Power Rankings

Winning to make the playoffs is hardly a new thing in NASCAR’s elimination era, but there are a couple of things that make Elliott’s case unique — an offseason rule change and the Next Gen car. Let’s take a quick look at both.

NEW PLAYOFF RULE

Remember, a win during the 26-race regular season clinches a driver into the Cup Series Playoffs.

Previously, though, the qualifications for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs also included a caveat of finishing in the top 30 in the points standings. That playoff requirement was dropped before the 2023 season for all three NASCAR national series.

So, while Elliott should not have any trouble climbing into the top 30 anyway — he’s currently 42 points behind Noah Gragson — the removal of that requirement simplifies his path.

Elliott was granted a medical waiver from NASCAR to maintain his postseason eligibility since he has not attempted to start every race.

NEXT GEN PARITY

Here’s one thing we learned about the Next Gen car in its maiden 2022 season — it produces a greater number of winners. That’s something the No. 9 camp will have to keep an eye on.

Through eight races in 2023, we have seven different winners. Only William Byron has won twice.

We know race winners qualify for the postseason. From there, drivers ranked highest in the points standings comprise the rest of the 16-driver field. The Regular Season Champion is guaranteed a playoff spot if he does not have a win, too.

But what if there are more than 16 winners? Well, the drivers with multiple wins get in first. Then the one-win drivers fill out the rest of the field by order of points standings.

So, if Elliott just wins once and there are more than 16 winners — remember, last year there were 16 winners during the regular season and 19 for the season — he faces an uphill climb given his points position.

The silver lining in all of this for Hendrick Motorsports and Elliott himself?

He’s won multiple races in five consecutive seasons.

MORE: Drivers who’ve won in injury return | Buy tickets for Martinsville

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