Advance to Victory Lane: Will Chase Elliott win in his return?

The simple answer as to whether Chase Elliott can win in his return from an injury is yes. Racing Insights initially projected Elliott to be celebrating in Victory Lane on Sunday at Martinsville Speedway after the NASCAR Cup Series’ NOCO 400 (3 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

FANTASY LIVE: Set your roster | See weekend schedule

The reasons behind such a bold prediction are history, organization and team.

History: Elliott won the fall race here in 2020 and is the active leader with six stage wins at the 0.526-mile track. He also is the owner of back-to-back top-10 finishes last year at Martinsville in the Next Gen car’s first season.

Organization: Hendrick’s 27 wins at Martinsville are the most ever for a team at a track, and that total includes William Byron’s win here last spring. The organization knows what works at the “Paperclip,” and this goes for all its teams, not just the No. 9.

Team: The No. 9 team was strong on its last paved short track despite being without Elliott and crew chief Alan Gustafson, who will be back this weekend after a four-race suspension. Josh Berry’s second-place finish at Richmond Raceway earned him some attention from Jeff Gordon, among others.

So yes, what a story it would be if Elliott were to win in his first race back, but just don’t be too surprised if it does indeed happen.

But with Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions in the books, check out which drivers may now be leading the charge at Martinsville.

OTHERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: He finished in the top five in the last three paved short-track races, his longest streak of top fives on short tracks ever.

DENNY HAMLIN: Hamlin is the active leader at Martinsville with five wins, 23 top-10 finishes and 2,190 laps led.

WILLIAM BYRON: He has four straight finishes of seventh place or better at Martinsville, including his win here last April.

RYAN BLANEY: He has six top-five finishes in the last eight races at Martinsville, and he finished fourth and third here last season.

JOEY LOGANO: He has 11 top-10 finishes in the last 13 races at Martinsville, including his only win at the “Paperclip” in October 2018.

ROSS CHASTAIN: He finished in the top five in both Martinsville races in 2022, including when he pulled off the infamous “Hail Melon” in the fall race, a move that is now outlawed by NASCAR.

Projections as of Sunday, April 16.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE NOCO 400