Advance to Victory Lane: Can Kyle Busch’s uniquely hot start continue at Dover?

Note: These projections have been updated to reflect Josh Berry replacing the injured Alex Bowman in the No. 48 Chevrolet as well as the postponement of the Dover event to Monday.

Kyle Busch has cracked the win column two times in his first 10 races with Richard Childress Racing. To put that in perspective, this type of start has happened only four other times since 2008: Ross Chastain (2022), Kevin Harvick (2014), Matt Kenseth (2013) and Busch himself in 2008. That 2008 season was Busch’s first with Joe Gibbs Racing after he came over from Hendrick Motorsports.

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Will Busch’s hot start continue at Dover Motor Speedway for Monday’s Würth 400 (Noon ET, FS1, PRN, SiriusXM)?

If Busch is to get back into Victory Lane this week, it seems he will have to contend with some Hendrick Motorsports cars that have been strong at the “Monster Mile.” Looking at cars that have run most consistently in the top five or top 10 at Dover for the past two races, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are at the top of those lists.

And don’t forget that in 2021 at Dover, Hendrick swept the top four positions with Bowman, Larson, Elliott and William Byron finishing in that order, a truly remarkable feat. So it could be quite the battle between Busch and one of his former teams this weekend.

OTHERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: His average finish of seventh at Dover is the best all-time among drivers with more than two races.

MARTIN TRUEX JR.: He has finished in the top two in four of the last six races at Dover.

RYAN BLANEY: He’s coming off a runner-up finish at Talladega, but Blaney has only two top-10 finishes in 12 starts at Dover.

KEVIN HARVICK: He has finished in the top 10 in the last eight Dover races, including two wins.

Projections as of Thursday, April 27.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR WÜRTH 400