In recent seasons, Toyota has obliterated the field in laps led at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The caveat, however, is the manufacturer hasn’t always won the race. In fact, Ford has been victorious in four of the last five races at the 1.058-mile track. This year, Toyota took up half of the top eight starting positions in qualifying. They also will start shotgun on the field as Ty Gibbs had a massive moment in qualifying, getting loose through Turns 1 and 2.
RELATED: Starting lineup | New Hampshire odds
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Christopher Bell
Starter 2: Martin Truex Jr.
Starter 3: Brad Keselowski
Starter 4: Kevin Harvick
Starter 5: Joey Logano
Garage pick: Ryan Blaney
NEXT IN LINE: Bubba Wallace, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Aric Almirola.
RISING: With how strong Team Penske has run at New Hampshire in recent years, Blaney’s statistics sometimes get overlooked. It could be because he’s yet to win at the “Magic Mile,” but he’s sure spent time at the front with four top-10 efforts in the last six races. The No. 12 car was quick on Saturday, as he was sixth on 10-lap averages in practice and qualified one spot better in fifth.
Admittedly, New Hampshire is not one of Michael McDowell’s favorite racetracks. He said as much to the Performance Racing Network after practice on Saturday. He surprised himself by having a superb practice session where the No. 34 team posted the quickest overall lap and was second on 10-lap averages. Another solid points day on Monday would do wonders for McDowell.
FALLING: Hendrick Motorsports continues to struggle at New Hampshire. The team hasn’t won in the Granite State since 2012, and it might be a far cry to win this year’s 301-lap race. Alex Bowman said he put additional emphasis on this weekend, as did Kyle Larson, though he too hasn’t always performed up to par at the track. Just William Byron made the final round of qualifying from HMS, and Larson was the best of the bunch on long-run speed.
It was a day at the race track for Kyle Busch on Saturday. The No. 8 car got loose in practice and smacked the wall. He gained his composure and still put up a lap in qualifying quick enough to make the final round. Then it got bad. The Chevrolet snapped on him in the middle of the corner and was fenced. The team will repair the primary by replacing the rear bumper, rear fascia and underwing. Still, Busch has dropped from my lineup.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
William Byron vs. Chase Elliott
Pick your poison with this one. Neither driver stood out on Saturday and Elliott was particularly frustrated with how his car was handling. Byron looks to have more pace and made a solid qualifying run, considering HMS’ recent struggles at New Hampshire. That leaves me to believe the No. 24 car will run better.
Kyle Busch vs. Denny Hamlin
With the eventful weekend Busch has had thus far, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him race from the rear of the field to have a good finish. Hamlin is starting mid-pack after a disappointing qualifying run. The No. 11 Toyota had good speed in practice on the long run, so I’ll bank on that.
Ross Chastain vs. Joey Logano
The No. 22 team has been a mystery this season. Typically, Logano is strong at New Hampshire; such is the case this weekend. Chastain had a lackluster qualifying run, as he commented on being too loose and will start 31st. Chastain has consecutive top 10s at New Hampshire, but Logano could contend for the win. At Gateway, the series’ most recent visit to a track like New Hampshire, Logano earned a top-five finish.
Tyler Reddick vs. Martin Truex Jr.
Truex will tell you that he isn’t owed anything by anyone, but with how dominant he’s been at New Hampshire, leading more than 80 laps in six of the past nine races, including last season, a win at the track must be coming soon. It took him a while to conquer Richmond and Martinsville, and once he did, it was hard to stop him. Reddick was one of the fastest Toyotas on Saturday as well, but don’t think the No. 45 car will outrun the No. 19 once the race begins. This might be the toughest call of the four battles this weekend.