Winning eight of the past 14 races at Pocono Raceway, Toyota has established itself as the manufacturer to beat in Sunday’s HighPoint.com 400. Hendrick Motorsports has had much success at the track as well, taking two of the past three. It’s no surprise that a Hendrick car with the most wins in 2023 won the pole on Saturday, with a handful of Toyotas in the top 10.
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: William Byron
Starter 2: Denny Hamlin
Starter 3: Kyle Larson
Starter 4: Christopher Bell
Starter 5: Kevin Harvick
Garage pick: Martin Truex Jr.
NEXT IN LINE: Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano
RELATED: Updated race-day odds; Hamlin now favored
RISING: Pocono has never been Logano’s best track with an average finish of 17.3 in 27 starts. For a multitude of reasons, the No. 22 team has just a quartet of top 10s in the last 12 races at the “Tricky Triangle.” But Logano was above average on Saturday, with his car being the best of the Team Penske trio in sixth. Don’t overlook Blaney, either, who had the best five-lap average in practice.
Bumping Harvick into my lineup isn’t a real rise with how stellar his recent numbers at the track are. But subbing out Ross Chastain for Harvick was my only change this week, so technically, it would be considered a rise. Harvick was happy with his speed on Saturday – and in 17 starts with Stewart-Haas Racing at Pocono, the 2014 champion has 14 top 10s, including a win in 2020 and five runner-up finishes.
FALLING: The recent struggles of the No. 9 team continued Saturday, as Chase Elliott spun during his qualifying lap and will start 35th (Todd Gilliland also spun). Having no track position to start the race will certainly impact what strategy Alan Gustafson, crew chief of the No. 9 car, can play throughout the race. Elliott did rank eighth in practice on single-lap speed, but taking him off your lineup this weekend seems like the safe play.
Chastain said his No. 1 team was on him for acting “mopey” after turning the 21st quickest lap in qualifying. The No. 1 Chevrolet wasn’t any better in practice, dropping to 26th on the scoring pylon. Chastain mentioned if he could find a half-second of pace, he would be in a solid position. It’s hard to find a half-second of speed throughout any race weekend, which makes it hard to put Chastain, who contended for the Pocono win last year, in my lineup.
MORE: See starting lineup for Sunday’s race
FEATURED MATCHUPS
Kevin Harvick vs. Bubba Wallace: Both drivers showed up with speed at Pocono that could contend for the win. In practice, they were on top of each other. Wallace, however, didn’t execute in the final round of qualifying and slapped the wall off Turn 1. With how confident Harvick was following qualifying, he’s my pick.
Christopher Bell vs. Ross Chastain: Toyota seemed to have the best pace of the three manufacturers, despite Chevrolet winning the pole with Byron. Chastain struggled mightily, while Bell will start from fifth position. The two drivers hovered around one another in practice, but I’ve flopped my opinion from earlier this week, thinking Bell will outrun Chastain.
Alex Bowman vs. Daniel Suárez: Of all the tracks on the schedule, Pocono has statistically been one of Suárez’s best. Bowman has been solid in recent years, including a triumph in 2021. Despite ranking lower than Bowman in practice, he’s the best bet, especially with how much the No. 48 team has struggled over the past couple of months.
Ryan Blaney vs. Brad Keselowski: It’s reasonable to think the No. 12 car is going to have a good showing on Sunday. Blaney was quickest in five-lap averages and just didn’t put a solid three corners together in qualifying. Keselowski actually starts one position better than Blaney but doesn’t think Pocono fits in RFK Racing’s wheelhouse. My gut feeling tells me to pick Blaney.