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October 8, 2023

Advance Through the Playoffs: Reddick has a real chance to create chaos

After a sizzling start to the 2023 playoffs, Tyler Reddick has done some fizzling lately and finds himself two points beneath the elimination line as the field gets ready to shrink from 12 to eight drivers after Sunday’s Bank of America Roval 400 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course (2 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

The good news is that it is a road course staring Reddick straight between the eyes, a track type where he has not only experienced success but also success at such a high level that it makes him stand out even among his playoff-battling counterparts.

PLAYOFFS: Playoffs hub page | Playoffs Grid Challenge game

Check out some of these red-hot Reddick stats:

The driver of the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota has averaged 33.3 points per race at the Charlotte road course, good for tops among playoff drivers not locked into the Round of 8. Reddick also is the only driver with multiple road-course wins in the Next Gen car.

Reddick has three road-course wins in the Next Gen car, including one earlier this season at Circuit of The Americas in Austin, Texas. His other wins came last year while driving for Richard Childress Racing at Road America and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.

If Reddick wins this weekend while coming from below the elimination line, it means somebody who is currently above the elimination line is not moving on to the next round. The fact Reddick is the first driver out probably has some people’s attention, including Brad Keselowski, who is currently the last driver in and only two points to the plus side of the equation.


CHASE ELLIOTT: Elliott isn’t in the playoffs, of course, but he could affect the playoff picture very much this weekend by winning at a track where he has won before and on a track type where he has been one of the most dominant drivers of his time. Another scary thought? Elliott likes October, too, with his most wins coming in this month (four in his career).

CHRISTOPHER BELL: Bell got the first of two walk-off wins in the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs here at the Charlotte road course. He’s not as desperate this time around, entering this year’s race 22 points to the good, but it’s important to note he’s averaging 33.0 points at the Roval, which is just a tick or two behind Reddick’s mark of 33.3.

CHRIS BUESCHER: The “other” Christopher, as Dale Earnhardt Jr. sometimes calls him, has been lights-out on road courses recently. Behold the Buesch-man’s bushel of stats: Top 11 in the past 10 road-course races, top six in the last two Roval races and an average finish of eighth on road courses this year.

ROSS CHASTAIN: He of the video-game move faces another uphill climb as he sits 10 points beneath the elimination line with a road-course resume that includes finishes of 17th or worse in six of the last eight road-course races and a best finish of 22nd on the Roval.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: We mentioned he has Reddick bearing down on him in the rearview mirror, but like Chastain, Keselowski will also need to buck his road-course stat trends: Winless in 42 road-course starts, only two top fives in the past 27 road-course races and an average finish of 20th on road courses in the Next Gen car. Ouch.

Projections as of Sunday, Oct. 8:


Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.

FinishCar NumberDriver
145Tyler Reddick
29Chase Elliott
320Christopher Bell
417Chris Buescher
516AJ Allmendinger
624William Byron
75Kyle Larson
834Michael McDowell
911Denny Hamlin
1054Ty Gibbs
1119Martin Truex Jr.
1248Alex Bowman
1399Daniel Suárez
148Kyle Busch
151Ross Chastain
1622Joey Logano
1712Ryan Blaney
184Kevin Harvick
192Austin Cindric
206Brad Keselowski
2123Bubba Wallace
2214Chase Briscoe
233Austin Dillon
2431Justin Haley
2541Ryan Preece
2647Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
2743Erik Jones
287Corey LaJoie
2910Aric Almirola
3051Todd Gilliland
3142Mike Rockenfeller
3221Harrison Burton
3377Ty Dillon
3478Josh Bilicki
3538Zane Smith
3615Andy Lally
3762Austin Hill