Advance Through the Playoffs: Expect drivers who excel on 1.5-mile tracks to dominate

Editor’s Note: Projections have been updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions:

The next two races in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are taking place on 1.5-mile tracks, the first time all season that the schedule features back-to-back 1.5-milers. By now, we’ve enjoyed an ample sampling of who does well on these tracks and can therefore, get a good handle on who might end up in Victory Lane after Sunday’s South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). Plus, Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions did little to alter the favorites projected earlier in the week.

PLAYOFFS: Playoffs hub page | Playoffs Grid Challenge game

According to Racing Insights, William Byron leads with 218 points scored in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season. Byron is also the only driver with two wins on 1.5-mile tracks this year, including one in the spring at Las Vegas. Denny Hamlin is second in points with 183, followed by Tyler Reddick with 178, Ryan Blaney with 167 and Kyle Larson rounding out the top five with 164 points. In addition, Blaney, Hamlin and Reddick each have one win on a 1.5-mile track this year.

With that many Round of 8 drivers among the leaders in points and wins on 1.5-mile tracks, Sunday’s race figures to be quite the battle to gain the early edge for what many will say is the most important win of the year. How important is that edge? The driver who wins on Sunday gets two weeks to prepare for Phoenix, and that advantage has paid off three of the last five years with a championship at Phoenix.

PLAYOFF PICTURE

KYLE LARSON: The driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet has a lot going for him at Las Vegas: He won there in March of 2021, finished in the top 10 in nine of his last 11 Vegas starts and has five career 1.5-mile wins. Look for Larson to be battling among the leaders all day.

MARTIN TRUEX JR.: Regular-season bonus points have helped carry Truex Jr. this far, but many, including Kyle Petty, wonder when he’ll flip the switch. It could happen this week at Las Vegas, where the driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota is a two-time winner and is the only driver to finish in the top 10 in all three races with the Next Gen car.

CHRIS BUESCHER: The driver of the No. 17 RFK Racing Ford enters Las Vegas three points beneath the elimination line and will need to go against the statistical trends in order to make up ground. Buescher has just one top-10 finish in 13 Las Vegas starts and has never finished in the top five on a 1.5-mile track.

DENNY HAMLIN: Hamlin comes to Vegas just 11 points above the elimination line, but he scored the second-most combined points in the spring at Las Vegas and Martinsville with 79. The only driver better during those two races was Larson. Plus, Hamlin is one of four drivers in the Round of 8 with wins at all three of the tracks in this round.

RYAN BLANEY: Blaney is bringing up the rear in the standings, 10 points behind, and is known more for his superspeedway racing, but don’t overlook him on the 1.5-mile tracks. The driver of the Team Penske No. 12 Ford already has a win this year on a 1.5-mile track in the prestigious Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Projections as of Sunday, Oct. 15:

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE SOUTH POINT 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.