It’s been a rough postseason for regular-season champion Martin Truex Jr. It took seven races into the playoffs before the No. 19 team earned its first top 10 – and top 15 – finish at Las Vegas. It was the most consecutive races he went without a top 15 since 2009. But the leaderboard shows even more speed out of Truex at Homestead, as he won his second pole of the season (Darlington I). If Truex wins on Sunday, the first two rounds of the postseason are irrelevant to the No. 19 bunch.
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Martin Truex Jr.
Starter 2: Tyler Reddick
Starter 3: Kyle Larson
Starter 4: Denny Hamlin
Starter 5: William Byron
Garage Pick: Bubba Wallace
RELATED: Sunday’s starting grid | Set your Homestead lineup
NEXT IN LINE: Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney
RISING: There were very little expectations for Blaney this weekend. For his fans, I advise you not to look up his statistics at Homestead – they’re mediocre at best. But in his ninth race weekend at Homestead, Blaney can begin a new trend. The No. 12 car was among the best cars on the long run, ranking fifth on 10-lap averages, but more impressively, quickest on 20, 25 and 30-lap runs. Looks like the No. 12 car will be hoping for long green flag runs on Sunday.
It’s been a terrible season for Austin Dillon. So much so that after advancing to the final round of qualifying, he told NBC Sports that he was glad just to be interviewed. The No. 3 team has found speed at Homestead, dating back to last season when Dillon finished fourth. He won’t have to come from a starting position in the 30s on Sunday, as his sixth-place qualifying effort is his best of the year on asphalt.
FALLING: It looked as though Team Penske had a second bullet in its arsenal early in practice, with Joey Logano sitting seventh on 10-lap averages and was the second quickest of cars in Group B. In the waning minutes of practice, however, the No. 22 car got loose and smacked the inside wall. As we saw last week with Chase Elliott and countless other times when teams have gone to a backup car in the Next Gen era, it doesn’t seem to be as good, with all the emphasis leading into the weekend on the primary. It could be a long day for Logano on Sunday.
Harvick thought his car showed potential on the long run, but the No. 4 car timed in the middle of the field on 10-lap averages. All four Stewart-Haas Racing cars qualified outside the top 20, with Harvick sitting 22nd. Getting Budweiser to sponsor Harvick for the first time since 2015 and Mobil 1 honoring the 2014 champion all weekend long, Homestead is serving as the weekend for remembering Harvick’s Hall of Fame career. It’s just hard to find a spot for him in a stacked fantasy lineup.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Kyle Larson vs. William Byron
This could be the toughest matchup of the season. Whenever NASCAR visits Homestead, everyone wants to crown Larson the winner before the race even begins. He’s won just one race at the track and Byron visited Victory Lane first in a fewer number of starts. Both cars looked nearly equal in practice, cracking the top 10 in practice and qualifying. Going to stay with Larson, as he mentioned Saturday that all his emphasis this week was on Homestead and not looking ahead to Phoenix.
Denny Hamlin vs. Martin Truex Jr.
I’ve flipped with this one. Another week where Hamlin hovered in the back half of the top 10 in practice and failed to make the final round of qualifying. And while Hamlin has three triumphs at Homestead, Truex is elite at the track and was the only serious threat to Larson in last year’s race prior to getting spun on pit road. Truex scored his first morale victory of the playoffs by winning the pole.
Christopher Bell vs. Tyler Reddick
If you read Fastlane earlier this week, you would have seen that Bell was listed under drivers to stay away from. He’s still on that list for me, despite having a good practice session and was one of three playoff drivers to miss the final round of qualifying. I’m lovin‘ the Reddick pick, though, and still think he’s going to be in contention for the victory.
Chris Buescher vs. Ryan Blaney
Here’s another matchup in which I’ve flipped on from earlier this week. Blaney had more pace in his car than Buescher had in his, especially over the long run. That’s where the No. 12 car shined, with Buescher ranking 26th on 20-lap averages. If Blaney can have a clean race, he should be able to outrun the No. 17 Ford.