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October 23, 2023

Analysis: Breaking down the 66 minutes that changed the NASCAR Playoffs


HOMESTEAD, Fla. — The elimination-style format of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs often sparks dramatic moments throughout the postseason. Sunday’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway delivered plenty packed into just more than a single hour.

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Christopher Bell won to rocket himself back to the Championship 4 for the second consecutive season after a late pass on William Byron, but the final 66 minutes that preceded the checkered flag in the 4EVER 400 flipped a steady playoff run of show on its head.

MORE: Race results | Playoff standings after Homestead

How did Bell rally to another clutch victory? What happened to the day’s dominant driver? And wait, two Joe Gibbs Racing cars had mechanical failures all within the same 120 seconds?

With timestamps provided by Racing Insights, let’s break down the minutes that led to Sunday’s finale and how they altered the championship picture:

All times Eastern.

4:56 p.m.

After leading 38 consecutive laps, Ryan Blaney peels to pit road with 57 circuits remaining. His team’s decision draws second-place runner Kyle Larson in as well.

In an attempt to close the gap on pit entry, Larson overcooks his approach and is forced to slam on the brakes. He veers right, colliding with sand barrels at the pit-wall attenuator, spewing sand upon the track after also making slight contact with Blaney’s back bumper.

Playoff impact — Larson’s Las Vegas victory one week ago means the No. 5 Chevrolet is locked into the Championship 4 and will fight for the 2023 title despite Sunday’s DNF — his eighth of the year. The ensuing caution period benefits Blaney’s No. 12 team as he cycles back to the lead on fresh tires, but the red flag allows the track to cool ahead of a shorter run to the checkered flag — both suboptimal conditions for Blaney to excel. Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and William Byron line up behind him for the subsequent restart.

5:37 p.m.

Denny Hamlin slams the wall at Lap 236 with a mechanical failure moments after restarting alongside Blaney on the front row. Fierce racing between the two allowed Bell and Byron to surpass both of them in separate three-wide moves. But an apparent issue on the No. 11 Toyota sent Hamlin into the SAFER barrier in Turns 1 and 2, ending his day.

Playoff impact — Hamlin was relegated to a 30th-place finish, his second DNF in the past three races. After long appearing as a preemptive lock for the Championship 4, Hamlin now enters this week’s Round of 8 finale 17 points beneath the provisional elimination line. Blaney capitalizes on a 25-plus-point advantage as Hamlin slides down the leaderboard.

Martin Truex Jr.'s car has its hood up in the garage, with crew member standing around it
Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR

5:38 p.m.

Within the next minute, Martin Truex Jr.’s engine goes up in smoke, sending the Regular Season Champion to the garage and ending his race in an instant.

Playoff impact — Truex entered Homestead tied with Hamlin, his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, tied two points above the elimination line. With a 29th-place result after qualifying on the pole position, Truex and Hamlin are tied again — this time, both beneath the elimination line. Blaney and Tyler Reddick pounce on the points and begin to work their way closer to the Championship 4.

5:43 p.m.

While his teammates’ days fall apart, Christopher Bell leads the field down pit road under caution with 29 laps remaining. The No. 20 team’s 10.4-second stop costs Bell two spots as Byron — a 9.3-second pit — and Blaney — 9.4 seconds — capitalize on quicker service to pass Bell on pit road. Bell lines up for the restart in third place. Tyler Reddick picks up one spot to restart seventh.

Playoff impact — Byron catapults back into position to lock his way into the Championship 4 if able to hold onto the lead to win while Blaney has one less car to pass on the track now that he’s in front of Bell. Reddick, who lingered quietly all day with a third-best 6.88 average running position, inches closer toward the front.

5:53 p.m.

It takes Bell a mere 10 minutes to go from losing the lead on pit road to passing Byron for the race win. Bell hounds Byron for eight laps before pulling alongside Byron’s No. 24 Chevrolet with 15 to go. He positions his No. 20 Toyota to Byron’s left, runs down the frontstretch door-to-door before using the bottom lane in Turns 1 and 2 to clear Byron and charge forward.

In the meantime, Reddick works from seventh up to fourth place.

Playoff impact — All momentum shifts to Bell’s favor as he takes control of the race’s late stages. Byron’s slide to second isn’t an ultimate detriment as he maintains above the elimination line, but the No. 24 team knows that win would erase any doubts. Reddick chips away at the deficit to Blaney.

Christopher Bell and William Byron coming to the start/finish line side by side
Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR

6:02 p.m.

The checkered flag waves over Christopher Bell, who mounts a stellar rally after falling to 22nd at the end of Stage 2, losing the lead again late, all to secure his spot in the Championship 4 for the second straight season. Ryan Blaney charges back to second place and Reddick to third as Byron drops to fourth. Playoff drivers sweep the top four positions, but none of the other four Round of 8 contenders finish better than 21st (Chris Buescher).

Playoff impact — Bell puts any doubt to rest as he scores another dramatic and clutch victory at one of the season’s most critical points. Blaney maximizes a strong day that includes a Stage 2 victory, leaving him fourth in the standings, 20 points behind Byron but 10 above the provisional elimination line. Reddick walks away 10 points beneath the elimination line, closest of those below. Hamlin and Truex leave 17 points behind Blaney while a tough day for Chris Buescher puts him 43 points to the negative.

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