A wreck and a 30th-place finish in the Daytona 500 isn’t scaring Racing Insights away from Ryan Blaney this week. With Atlanta Motor Speedway’s new configuration racing like a superspeedway, many of the same principles still hold true that were in play earlier this week when Blaney was a favorite to win at Daytona International Speedway.
If only the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion can avoid the chaos this time in Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), then he should be in strong contention for the win. After all, Blaney has led laps in the last eight drafting races, giving him the longest active streak in that stat category.
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However, William Byron, the Daytona 500 champ, could also vie for the win. In the four races on Atlanta’s new configuration, Byron has won twice, meaning he could be the first driver to win back-to-back races to start the season since Matt Kenseth did it in 2009.
OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH
JOEY LOGANO: In last year’s race, Logano won the pole and led 140 laps en route to the victory. Also, his 296 laps led on drafting tracks since 2022 are tops among drivers.
BRAD KESELOWSKI: This seven-time winner on drafting tracks tied Logano for most points earned at Atlanta last year. Keselowski also is one of three drivers who finished in the top 10 in both Atlanta races in 2023.
CHASE ELLIOTT: He won on the new configuration in Atlanta back in the late summer of 2022. Elliott also owns the best average finish in drafting races at Atlanta at 6.7.
ROSS CHASTAIN: He is among five drivers who have compiled two top-five finishes at Atlanta since the reconfiguration — with both of Chastain’s being runner-ups.
COREY LAJOIE: Two of his four career top-five finishes have come at Atlanta. Plus, LaJoie is coming off a fourth-place finish in Monday’s Daytona 500.
Projections as of Thursday, Feb. 22.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE AMBETTER HEALTH 400
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.
| Finish | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 2 | 24 | William Byron |
| 3 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 4 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 5 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 7 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 8 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 9 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 10 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 11 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 12 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 13 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 14 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 15 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 16 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 17 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 18 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 19 | 14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 20 | 7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 21 | 51 | Justin Haley |
| 22 | 38 | Todd Gilliland |
| 23 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 24 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 25 | 41 | Ryan Preece |
| 26 | 34 | Michael McDowell |
| 27 | 10 | Noah Gragson |
| 28 | 42 | John H. Nemechek |
| 29 | 4 | Josh Berry |
| 30 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 31 | 21 | Harrison Burton |
| 32 | 31 | Daniel Hemric |
| 33 | 78 | BJ McLeod |
| 34 | 71 | Zane Smith |
| 35 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 36 | 16 | Josh Williams |
| 37 | 15 | Kaz Grala |